what are the most likely scenarios of the Ukr. engaging this 10-60km (depending sources) long convoy full of tanks/supply trucks/tankers/armed personnel carrier/artillery pieces?
does the situation get more favorable (or worse) for the Ukr. the deeper the column moves into the country ( I’d assume more favorable, but that’s just my guess from my side)
And asking from ignorance POV: why not have a few dozen committed fighters lining the street ahead and at a given time fire their Javelin rockets in syncronized fashion and take out every 10th or so vehicle? wouln’t that be a “cost/benefit” no brainer?
does the situation get more favorable (or worse) for the Ukr. the deeper the column moves into the country ( I’d assume more favorable, but that’s just my guess from my side)
Very unfavorable.
And asking from ignorance POV: why not have a few dozen committed fighters lining the street ahead and at a given time fire their Javelin rockets in syncronized fashion and take out every 10th or so vehicle? wouln’t that be a “cost/benefit” no brainer?
If you can think of it, then I can assure you the military professionals in Russia and Ukraine can think of it. The convoy almost certainly is being supported by aerial and space based observation and anything that looks unfriendly is going to be engaged. Can Ukrainians cause damage to some vehicles. Yes. Will that matter an iota? No.
A better option might well be to mine the routes its will likely take and blow up roads, bridges, canals on the way. Slow them down.
This all presumes a full and complete willingness by Russian troops to fight and kill Ukrainians. It’s not clear that this exists right now. If Russian morale is even a fraction as bad as is being reported, the results of this kind of engagement would be very unpredictable.
Yeah, I can’t help but think that if the Ukrainians know where that convoy is, and what route it’s taking, there’s probably something planned for it- mines, blown bridges, counterattacks, and so on.
That’s assuming that the Ukrainian forces are still at the point where they can strike back against it in any sort of coordinated fashion.
I assume this is a factual question, although I guess no one here knows the answer absolutely for sure. Anyway —
For 2 1/2 days now, we’ve been seeing aerial/satellite photos of a massive Russian convoy headed into Ukraine and toward Kiev. Has the Ukrainian air force tried to drop bombs on the front of it, or on the road ahead of it? Has the Ukrainian army aimed rockets and/or missiles at the front of the convoy? And if not, why not?
From what I’ve seen, the convoy looks awfully road-bound. Making the vehicles at the front of it or the road ahead of it impassible would greatly slow down its advance, no?
Well, I saw a report that the Russians were hit by artillery and drone strikes near Lebedyn with quite a few vehicles destroyed. But the answer to your question is that the Russians have various defenses in place for this and other convoys to mitigate such attacks, and the Ukrainians don’t have that many options for striking back. They don’t have large batteries of MLRS for instance, and even their tubed artillery is not that numerous…and very vulnerable to air/missile strikes and counter-battery fire. It’s a similar situation in the air, where Russia far outstrips Ukraine’s air forces. One bright spot has been the armed drones Ukraine has from India and Turkey, especially Turkey, which have been pretty effective. But they would be on the order of harassing fire, not serious threats to do what you seem to be asking.
They do not have the capability to do so. Ukraine’s air force and drone capability is very limited and they have no artillery in range. Artillery has to be moved around and actively protected by substantial forces of armor and infantry.
Ukraine does have artillery, of course, but they are struggling to control the ground and Russia has air superiority and can target and destroy exposed assets.
I’m sure they already are. Those are harassment measures, though…they aren’t going to stop a convoy or convoys of heavy troops moving into position for an attack. The scouting elements would be the ones finding those little surprises and dealing with them…or triggering them.
This is an important point WRT artillery in a modern battlefield. The battery that Ukraine uses to attack a high value target is likely to no longer exist within minutes. Counterbattery artillery and roving air strikes can make any emplaced artillery a sitting duck before it can finish its fire order. I don’t know how much “shoot 'n scoot” the Ukrainian artillery corps has.
If Putin can hire mercenaries so can others. Can you actually hire “independent contractors” with hangars full of A-10s or whatever? How many would it take to rain Hell-fire and damnation on that convoy?
It doesn’t take 2 1/2 days to drive to Kiev from the border. So one wonders what is taking the convoy so long. Ukraine can’t rain wholesale destruction on a convoy like that in the same way the USA can. But I would think that it doesn’t take a lot of blown up trucks, destroyed bridges, or big holes in the road to create a 40 mile long traffic jam.
Yeah, that struck me as weird that not only did a convoy like that make the news, but that it lasted more than a day. It seemed like a massive, juicy target for artillery, rockets, airplanes, tanks, or whatever the Ukrainians could throw at it. Maybe they are- that could be why it’s going so slowly, if they’re having to deploy infantry to clear out ambushes along the route all the time.
Mercenaries with A-10s? No, almost certainly not. Mercenaries with ground attack aircraft? Yes. Of course, a lot of them are Russian. But there are plenty of other Private Military Contractors. But how do you get them to Ukraine? In time to intercept the convoy? And once they’re there, how do you get them into position to rain “Hell-fire and damnation” with ground attack aircraft, which are slow and clumsy and vulnerable to ground fire and are effectively sitting ducks for fighters, when Russia has air superiority?
Putting aside the practical problems, there’s the issue that mercenaries generally don’t hire on for suicide missions. By definition, they aren’t motivated by ideals, they’re motivated by money. And you can’t spend money if you’re dead. Real mercenaries just don’t get involved in fights against major militaries. There’s no percentage. The PMCs with ground attack aircraft use them against jihadis and insurgents in “technicals”, not against armored convoys protected by sophisticated anti-aircraft weaponry and covered by modern fighter aircraft.
On the bright side, apparently some of Russia’s troops are simply abandoning their vehicles and walking home. This war is unpopular in Russia and it might be that low morale is doing Ukraine’s work for them
Airpower seems out of the question, but could Germany donate BONUS shells and the United States donate some Excalibur Increment-III shells to Ukraine? The Ukrainians could put them in their howitzers and then strike mobile Russian targets, such as the convoy.
US Armored formations averaged about 2-3 kmh in Iraq 2.
People really don’t understand that theoretical max speed or ostensible cruising speed is rarely seen in actual combat conditions when the formation is forced to travel at the speed of its slowest and most vulnerable parts.
It seemed like a massive, juicy target for artillery, rockets, airplanes, tanks, or whatever the Ukrainians could throw at it. Maybe they are- that could be why it’s going so slowly, if they’re having to deploy infantry to clear out ambushes along the route all the time.