Billdo: 1842 - The First Afghan War. Out of 4,500 troops and 12,000 odd camp followers only a handful of women and children survived to reach British territory after retreating from Kabul. Plus one European, Dr. William Brydon, who reached the British garrison at Jallalabad, to report that he was “the army of the Indus.”
Afghanistan is a tactician’s nightmare. Initial conquest of things like population centers is easy. Holding the countryside long term is another thing altogether. Nobody is going to intervene without good reason. And, sadly, this isn’t good enough for a government.
Spavined Gelding:
I sincerely doubt it. The Iranian leadership, theocracy or no, are enlightened exemplars of benevolence compared to the Taliban. The Ayatollahs are conservative zealots. The Taliban are the regional equivalent of “Cletus the Slack-Jawed Yokel” who have found religion. Calling them reactionary fanatics is not nearly strong enough. They’re a stain on the Koran.
Frankly, I could probably make the case that the Iranians are the * most likely* to intervene. Not for this latest atrocity ( and it is an atrocity ) - But rather in reaction to the Taliban’s abuse of local Shi’ites. But Iran’s profound internal difficulties make it unlikely, unless pressed hard.
India does not share a border with Afghanistan. They’d have to go through Pakistan. NOT going to happen.
Nope, I agree with those that think this ugly little festering mess is just going to continue to fester :-/ .
The USSR used: [ul]
[li]Infantry[/li][li]Armor[/li][li]Artillery[/li][li]Helicopters[/li][li]Massive Air Power[/li][li]Chemical Weapons[/li][li]Bio-Chemical Weapons[/li]And the Rumored use of–
[li]True Biological Warfare (The scariest one, to me)[/li][/ul]
We would not be able to go as far, for political reasons.
The Koran is considered by Muslims to be the “Word of God as revealed to Mohammed by the Angel Gabriel.”
Hadith is a collection of the Prophet’s sayings written well after his death. It takes the form of “so and so told me that so and so heard the Prophet say such and such.” This collection of second and third hand reports has taken on divine status. (There is a faction of American Muslims, Submitters, who reject Hadith but that is another thread.)
This devolving divine status of the Hadith has become manifest in the Taliban’s rulings. Rulings by the Taliban are based upon Hadith, not Koran, The Word of God."
I dar’st anyone to support a Taliban ruling with a sura from the Koran.
The bad news: taliban will test Allah’s slaves a decade before shaytan claims his prize.
The good news: hadith may attain its due as shaytan’s greatest work.
I think we should start up round-the-clock bombings of Afghanistan. Except we don’t drop bombs. We drop Britney Spears CDs, home entertainment centers, Playboy magazines, DVD players, Harry Potter novels, porno movies, satellite dishes, Furbies, you name it. That’s right, full scale culture war. I think we can make the Taliban as shallow and indolent as ourselves within a decade.
“This really happened to my dentist’s cousin’s fourth-grade math teacher!”
Oh, and if you forward this message to every infidel in your address book, Eddie Money Fans Forever[sup]TM[/sup] will send you “two tickets to paradise” and a signed photograph.
First, on getting out of the country. There are millions of Afghan refugees in Pakistan and Iran (and no doubt in its Central Asian nieghbors, but I am not up on that). They largely live in miserable poverty. Want to get people out, don’t talk, send money to aid organizations and agitate for asylum based assistance. Otherwise all the talk here is rank hypocrisy, along the lines of ‘oh those poor natives, but I don’t want them here.’
As for Iran, the Iranians fairly loathe the Taleban for a number of reasons. Indeed the Iranian denunciations of the destruction of the statues was among the strongest as I recall. First, the Taleban are Sunni of a flavor that largely considers Shiites to be pretty close to apostates. Not good for the Shiites in the south. Iran feels protective of shi’i minorities who tend to get a raw deal from Taleban sorts (e.g. Saudi Arabia, which has a shi’i minority).
Further, even the Iranian hyper-religious are modernists. The Taleban are, as I think Tamerlane said, a bunch of slack jawed country bumpkin preachers whose ideas seem to be drawn from early Medieval texts and whack ass visions. Even the Iranian Ayatollahs don’t like this (considering themselves quite learned and cultured).
In re the distribution of western porn etc. of course this is actually likely simply to confirm the Taleban’s agit-prop that the Western devils are trying to destroy Afghan culture. I.e, playing into their hands.
One thing we in the U.S. could do about the Taliban is quit sending them huge amounts of money. There has never in the entire history of the world been a regime too evil, too backward or too cruel for American politicians to suck up to for short-term political advantage.
Collounsbury: Well, of course the Taliban would hate it. But when they try and take it away from their citizens, well, then you’ve got a shot at an uprising to throw the bastards out. The Taliban can promise houris in heaven, but we can promise Christa Nicole on page 56. There’s a lot to be said for the power of instant gratification.
[hijack]In the European Medieval era, the muslims where the most enlightened people. They translated the Greek and Latin works to Arab. Thanks to them, those great works by the classical authors were saved. Also, they contributed to math, astronomy, and the sciences.[end of hijack]
Porn? Feh. You guys don’t know nuthin’ about subverting governments. Whatcha gotta do is parachute in some lawyers and program traders. We did that to Japan in the late '80’s (remember when everyone was spazzing because Japanese companies were buying Rockerfeller Center and Hawaii and stuff?) and their economy still hasn’t recovered.
In all seriousness, Collounsbury has it exactly right. Military intervention, while perhaps morally justified now or in the future, is just not an option in that part of the world. In particular, it is not an option for the “overwhelming force, heavy firepower, take the land, kill what moves” mode of warfare in which the United States has undeniable skill. If you want to save the people, the only two options are a) assist them in their own (possibly futile) efforts to retake control of the country or b) move them out.
For option b) to be viable, you have to give them someplace to go. Pakistan is full. If the US wanted to really show some leadership on this, we’d offer to take in ~2 MM immigrants from the region over the next decade.
Personally, I think we have the room, and I’m up for it. Anyone else?
My experience with the Afganis is that they are, for the most part, hard working, studious, and polite. I’ll take a dozen families in my neighborhood, to displace all the noisy college students.