I want to optimistic but I can’t be. The Browns faced probably the 3 worst teams in the last 3 weeks, managed to lose one, and didn’t look great doing it. They had a lot of good breaks - lots of interceptions, blocked kicks, etc and still didn’t blow out any of those teams. Their running game has entirely vanished since Alex Mack was injured. The replacement center got a -8.1 on PFF for the last game, which may be the biggest negative score I’ve ever seen.
In a way, they’re lucky (schedule) to be 5-3, but on the other hand, two of their losses came to last second field goals and were really close games, so they could easily be 7-1 too. The Browns generally play the Bengals pretty tough, so there’s the potential to surprise here, but without the running game, until the return of Gordon, I can’t see them being anywhere near as efficient on offense.
On the plus side, the secondary play is about 14x better recently than it was during the early season, so I hope that’s a systematic improvement rather than just playing bad teams.
My guess is something like 24-17 Cincy. Hope I’m wrong. It would be fucking huge if they could win a division game and go 6-3.
Shazier and Polamalu already ruled out versus Jets. There hasn’t been much drop off when #43 is out but it would be nice if it was Shamarko getting the reps rather than Will Allen. Unfortunately Thomas injured the other hamstring and is out again too. I’m all for them taking it slow with Shazier; one of the only positions with lots of depth and he’s well ahead of the curve for on the job training in this system.
I’d be OK with that. Let the Ohio teams beat themselves up, let the Ratbirds wallow in the basement, and let the Steelers regain the lead in the division. You know, the natural order of things.
I think you need to look at this game from a different angle. By rooting for the Browns to beat the Bengals, you’re helping the Steelers, and you and I both know that you don’t want that. The Steelers claiming first place from the Bengals would be a disaster.
I mentioned last week that Terry McAuley has a grudge against the Browns for bottlegate - which is true, but he’s not nearly as bad as Jeff Triplette, who was knocked over by Orlando Brown after he threw a flag that hit him in the eye and blinded him.
I know it sounds like pre-emptive whining, but those are always the two guys I’m on the lookout for, it just so happens that we got them back to back. Watch the officiating tonight.
Anyway, Bengals by 10. The weather is going to be poor. Probably would’ve helped the Browns a few weeks ago when they could run dominantly, but now is going to be crippling to them since their offense is based on a deep passing game from someone with a weak arm. Hope Shanahan has some weird tricks up his sleeve, or timely turnovers are the only chance the Browns have.
If the weather is poor that cuts both ways. Noodle-armed Andy Dalton folds under pressure, so if they can get the heat on him with the bad weather it will negate AJ Green and the passing attack.
It’s weird wanting to see the Browns win, even if it’s a net benefit to the Steelers. But hey, someone has to win, and in that case I’d prefer that result. Maybe they can tie.
Bengals can run better, and the Browns defense is last in the league, where their pass defense is somewhere in the middle. I’d say that clearly favors the Bengals.
Who leads the AFC North if the Browns win tonight? Browns and Steelers would be 6-3 and 2-2 in the division. Is conference record next tiebreaker?
Andrew Hawkins out with injury tonight. Bigger deal than you’d think. Browns down top 2 receivers on already the least talented receiving squad in the NFL - 3 if you count Gordon. Miles Austin can’t run a nice route to save his life although to this credit he’s using his body very well to make tough catches anyway. That means he’s starting with either UDFA Smurf Taylor Gabriel or Afraid of Playing Football Smurf Travis Benjamin. I don’t even know if they have any receivers past that.
Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
That’s like the 5th fumble on punt returns this season. The coverage and blocking units are very good, but the return units on our special teams are the worst I’ve ever seen of any time ever. Just staggeringly awful.
That PI was ticky tacky. I can see why it looked like he was grabbing him replay shows it was just pretty close pass defense.
When the Browns played the Bengals late in 2007 with the playoffs on the line, they threw like 50 times into 35 mph winds and had a disastrous day. It looks like the Bengals may be trying to repay the favor.
So you’re facing the worst run defense in the league. You’ve got a good running game. There are 35 mph winds. Your QB is a ginger and wilts under primetime pressure.