The 2004 Election, for Non-Americans

Great Debates
1

I am somewhat embarassed to admit that I get most of my American news from these here boards. (It comes from having only three local TV channels, and spending my Internet time, well, here.)

I actually prefer to read it here, as I get analysis from many points of view, and I don’t have to put up with Bill O’Reilley or commercials. And I think y’all provide pretty thorough coverage so I don’t feel I’m missing much.

What I am missing, though, is a comprehensive discussion of the November 2004 elections. I’ve seen some references to the lack of decent Democratic candidates, and support for Bush in his third year as compared with support with other presidents in their third year, and so on, but having missed the initial articles and not having seen CNN I don’t really know what’s going on.

So, talk to me like I have no exposure to American media, and answer this question:

Who’s going to win the next election?

2

I’d say it’s too early to tell.

3

Bush will defeat Hillary Clinton in a landslide.

4

Non-american here. I need to know: does Howard Dean have any chance at all? Any?

5

Nomination, yes. General election, no.

6

I’d say that Dean has a slightly better chance than Wesley Clark. Which is to say that either of them would easily beat Bush.

7

Here is the situation:

The Democratic party is infamous in recent decades for their internecine primary elections. For some daft reason, they think the best thing to do is to destroy each other as much as possible in the process of picking a Presidential candidate.

As for Mr. Dean. He now has a chance, if he can gain more momentum on that “I’m an outsider.” schtick he’s using.

8

cowgirl, you wouldn’t have much more useful knowledge if you had spend hours watching CNN or Fox News Channel. Just about every “expert” is lying. The independent pundits mostly say it will be a close election, because they’ll look stupid if they wrongly predict a landslide, especially if their choice doesn’t even win. Even those Bush supporters who think there will be a big victory are publicly predicting a close election. They want their supporters to be hyped. Every Democrat candidate and his/her supporters say they can or will win.

I don’t think it matters much who the Democrats nominate. Kerry, Dean, Lieberman, and Gephardt are all adequately qualified, but not exciting. In particular, I think Dean handles himself well and would do just as well as the other three in a general election. With any of them, the campaign will be a referendum on Bush vs. the general Democratic Party position.

Since I’m not a pundit or a politician, I’ll go out on a limb and predict a Bush landslide. If I’m wrong, it won’t the first time.

9

Well, cowgirl, I’m an American, and I’ve lived in this country for most of my life, and have never relinquished citizenship. However, I know better than to rely on many American media sources for news, and mostly rely on the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, the Chicago Tribune, the Sacramento Bee, the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, the Economist, the News Hour with Jim Lehrer, Le Monde, the Manchester Guardian, Foreign Affairs magazine, Harper’s magazine, the New Yorker magazine, ABC News online, the BBC, and National Public Radio. For starters. And from what I can gather, it’s too early to call the 2004 election. It seems like a question one should be able to answer, since we’re already talking about it, but in America we start talking about who’s going to win a presidential election anywhere from two to five years in advance. As a presidential junkie, things are just getting good for me. By this winter, I’ll be in my glory.

I wish I could tell you, “Yes! Bush will lose by a landslide to Howard Dean, who will cream him by winning 442 electoral votes to Bush’s 96!” But it’s too early now to say anything. Bush could lose a hell of a lot of ground over the next couple of months or gain a hell of a lot of ground, but there are sixteen months left before the election, which is an eternity in politics. Whole fortunes could be reversed and reversed and reversed again by then.

That said, gex gex, I think it’s eminently possible that Bush will lose to any of several Democrats, and that Howard Dean could be one of them. When I first heard Dean speak around Christmastime, I was impressed, but I figured, “This guy has no chance at all.” But he’s been gathering support and, more importantly, money. Money is the magic key in American politics, and Dean has hit record fund raising levels, putting him within striking distance of other Democratic contenders, like John Kerry and Richard Gephardt. No one expected him to pull this off, but Dean’s innovative net-based campaign strategy is proving to be a bonanza for him. Personally, I’d say Dean has an actual shot: he’s doing okay in the money department, he’s sufficiently moderate, personable, and is going after Bush with enough zeal that he seems like he’s a real choice. I think a candidate like Dean would translate very well outside of his native Northeast, and I like what the guy is all about. Recently I began campaigning for Dean, in fact; I’m that optimistic.

10

Dean certainly has a charisma that is woefully lacking in the other condidates. And he’s a Governor, not a Congressman like the other main candidates, which seems to be a crtical factor regardless of the party.

And Elucidator thinks the Pubs are nefariously funneling money into his campaign chest since they believe he’ll be the easiest one to beat. If you like conspiracy theories, that one is a doozie.

But, if the election were held today the latest polls show Bush handilly beating any Dem candidate. Still lots of time for that to change, esp if the economy worsens, some catastrophy occurs in Iraq or there is another major terrorist attack.

There’s also the Nader factor. If he runs again as a Green, he’ll likely ciphon off votes from the Dems, as would Buchanan fromt he Pubs.

I’d say wait until this time next year before you start speculating. So much can happen between now and then.

11

Nobody worth listening to is really sure or very confident about who’ll win the Democratic nomination or next year’s election.

None of the 9 Democratic contenders is terribly impressive, but 6 of them (Dean, Edwards,Gephardt, Graham, Kerry, or Lieberman) could win next year, depending on a host of circumstances that can’t be foreseen just yet. Will the economy improve, or will it remain in the doldrums? Will Iraq be stabilized by next year, or will it be looking like a bloody quagmire? Anyone who pretends to know the answers to those questions is a fool- but the answers to those questions could be crucial in determining who gets elected.

If things change drastically, on the economic or foreign policy front, it’s anyone’s guess whatwill happen. But if things DON’T change drastically… I think we’re looking at a replay of the 2000 election. Most of the states that went for Al Gore are going to vote for ANY Democrat again, and almost all the states that President Bush won last time will go for him again. There are a few crucial “swing” states (Florida being the most important) that are likely to decide the outcome.

12

Who’s Howard Dean?

13

Howard Dean is the former governor of Vermont. Here’s his campaign site.

http://www.deanforamerica.com/

As governor, he was fairly conservative, especially fiscally, but he’s been running to the left of his past record. He’s come out against the war in Iraq, and, as governor, signed into law the bill allowing gay people to enter into domestic partnerships, both of which might prove controversial this election.

14

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! Please, anything but that again.:slight_smile:

15

You can safely ignore the “If the election were held today …” questions. It ain’t being held today. The set date determines the schedule, and the flow, of the campaigns, unlike in a parliamentary system. A large part of the electorate, enough to swing most elections, doesn’t decide until the last few weeks before the primaries, and more decide just before the general election.

Not even the TV pundits, who get paid to spout opinions, will for the most part say what will or won’t happen; it’s all couched in ifs. And to that extent they’re right.

Ask again next January and we’ll talk. Until then, perhaps you can bring it up with Bricker. He has a bottle of something he’s been trying to give away to anyone foolish enough to take a stand this early.

16

Astorian is right–too many unknowables out there to call the election. We can only speculate on how vastly different Bush would have been as a President had 9/11 not happened. National security has now become very important again, and that’s traditionally a Republican preserve; if there’s another severe terrorist attack here, Bush will win in a cakewalk unless it can be proven that there was something the Administration could have done to prevent or detect it.

The Supreme Court seems that it’ll remain intact next session, but if there’s a bruising battle to replace a Justice in the summer of 2004, that could change a lot of things, as everybody will have to state their cases and take sides.

I think we’ll see a backlash against liberal third-party candidates in this election, as lefties decide that stopping Bush, not making a political point, is more important.

There’s a visceral hatred of Bush among some on the Left that parallels the visceral hatred of impeached Clinton on the Right. It’s kind of amusing. But we’ll see if it leads to voting against the guy or just dropping out of the process in disgust. There are a lot of people who dislike Bush because they think he represents a rich hegemony imperious to change, and they may not vote because they think “what difference does it make?”

As a Democratic cat myself, I like Kerry but don’t liiiiiike! Kerry. But 'tis many a slip between now and November 2004. Also, outside places like this, a lot of Merkuns just aren’t paying attention yet. My baby brother, an intelligent guy, couldn’t name one Dem candidate, although he did recognize most of the names when I listed them (although I realized I forgot Dennis Kucineck (sp?)

As for Dr. Dean, he’s pretty cool, a little out there on some issues for me, but sure, I’ll give him a good listen. Unfortunately, he has a tendency to speak out which again is cool but…my prediction is he will say something so ‘outrageous’ or truculent that the mass of voters simply will not be able to bring themselves to forgive him. He’ll be the John McCain of the Democrats, which is certainly not the worst thing to be. JMHO.

It’s exciting, ain’t it? :smiley:

17

I’ll take Howard Dean in a very narrow win.

And I’d even risk Brickers Gambit on it.

18

Yes, but did you have to walk uphill in the snow on the way to school?

19

Yep, the entire election will again come down to central Florida.
I can be bribed.

20

If the election were held today, Bush would win, easy.

Good thing the election isn’t being held today. :slight_smile: