Who is going to be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004? The democrats have a hard choice to make between moderates (Lieberman, Edwards, Graham) and those a little further left (Gebhardt, Kerry). Dean is even further to the left. Kuchinich, Mosely-Braun and Sharpton are further out than that.
Here is my opinion. The further left you are, the more unelectable you become. Look at what happened to McGovern in 1968. Therefore, you have to at least talk like a moderate to have a chance. (Bill Clinton comes to mind.)
Unless Edwards or Graham catch fire in the next few months, I think it will come down to Kerry, Gebhardt and Lieberman. As long as Kerry can talk like a moderate, he’ll stay in the game. Gebhardt will be the darling of the unions, but I think he’s perceived as too liberal. He can’t escape all those years as the voice of the opposition as Minority Leader in the House. That leaves Lieberman. He carrys the “revenge for the stolen election” martyrdom and is consistently moderate. But he’s not as charismatic as Kerry or Gebhardt. And charisma is important to superficial voters.
Kerry because, as you said, he does have charisma. Plus thus far he has more name recognition than anyone else. Gephardt because he’s been around since the Stone Ages.
Lieberman doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning. The dems would be nuts to nominate him.
It won’t be kucinich , he who would repeal NAFTA and the Patriot Act and establish a Department of Peace.
It will be one of the “I mostly agree with the President except on certain envioronmental issues and abortion” Republican-lite Democrats. Bush will then win another term to allow the neocons to continue to destroy the country, plunder the US treasury, and impose their will in the entire planet.
I do agree that Bush will be re-elected. I think that when the 9/11 attacks happened, the philosophy of the left took a major blow. I think it will be years before that changes.
Fun time…Sorry for the fun hyjack.
Randy of the Red Woods from Mtv. Because it is time for a hippy to take over for a while. Does anyone know what ever happened to him?
End Hyjack
I don’t think Bush will be re-elected.
The lack of Weapons of Mass Destruction, a crappy economy, no Osama, No Saddam, no safer from terrorism…it will all come back to haunt him.
I disagree, DMark. Dean is too far left. If he does manage to win the nomination because Democrats are not thinking long term, he will end up like Dukakis in 1988.
Shoot, I was going to say Randee of the Redwoods, too. Or maybe Zippy the Pinhead.
Howard Dean’s not that terribly far left. And he was the only one of these candidates to come out against the war. That could work for him - or sink him. We’ll have to see what the country’s mood is regarding Iraq next year.
I don’t think the Iraq war is going to hurt Bush. Democrats are going to vote against him anyway. Republicans will vote for him. The swing votes are the moderates. That’s why you have to be a moderate to win. I thought for certain that Bill Clinton was going to lose in 1996…but I let my heart talk instead of my head. Unless someone says “Why yes, I falsified intelligence data and GWB knew it” or the economy is in the toilet, Bush will serve two terms.
I think the Democrats are more likely to nominate the conservative Kerry than the moderate Dean.
[crackpot theory]
If the Democrats nominate Gephardt or Lieberman, that means they consider Bush unbeatable and are conceding the election to him, hoping to come back strong in 2008 (with H. Clinton?). The 2004 nominee would essentially be getting a reward for years of service, probably improving his chances for lucrative work in the private sector after leaving Congress. I think this is what the Democrats were doing for Mondale in 1984, and the Republicans for Dole in 1996.
[/crackpot theory]
Howard Dean impressed me one night. At a local gay bar, last September or October, we were having a voter registration drive for the local elections.
Dean showed up that night and gave a short speech (he had just announced). Among other things he told us that if he were elected, we (the gay community) would have the same rights as gays in Vermont (civil union).
I don’t believe it, but you can bet he may be the only Democrat to appear in a gay bar. The republicans sure won’t.
I’ll watch the democrats carefully and investigate the front runners. Certainly I’m looking for the one who has the best chance to defeat Bush. But I believe that Dean would be a good candidate.
Howard Dean impressed me one night. At a local gay bar, last September or October, we were having a voter registration drive for the local elections.
Dean showed up that night and gave a short speech (he had just announced). Among other things he told us that if he were elected, we (the gay community) would have the same rights as gays in Vermont (civil union).
I don’t believe it, but you can bet he may be the only Democrat to appear in a gay bar. The republicans sure won’t.
I’ll watch the democrats carefully and investigate the front runners. Certainly I’m looking for the one who has the best chance to defeat Bush. But I believe that Dean would be a good candidate.
As evidence of how bulletproof Bush seems to be, I keep hearing people say he’ll win unless the economy goes in the toilet. The economy is in the toilet.
Lieberman’s not even a Democrat. I thought Jon Stewart summed him up pretty accurately. ‘He’s the candidate for people that want to vote for George Bush, but don’t think he’s Jewish enough.’
I think Kerry wins the nomination in spite of the fact that he’s a bigger stiff than Gore and then gets a Bob Dole sized pounding in the general election.
And to those who keep repeating mass media cliches about him, like “he’s stiff” etc, have you ever heard him speak in anything other than a soundbite? The man’s got some serious horsepower, rhetorically and nonverbally. Besides, anyone who riffs out “We got our asses handed to us” to a reporter, on the record, can’t be too uptight.
I don’t think that Lieberman or Gephardt would stand a chance. I guess that leaves Kerry as the best choice at this time although if they could get John McCain as a free agent he would be a solid candidate.
You mean the philosophy of “appeasement at any cost, no matter how many Americans must die”, right? Well, I can see how that might take “a major blow”.
