The 2016 Road to the Oscars thread

Cafe Society
1

So this is about film awards–critics and industry recognition for the movies from this year. If you don’t like award shows or processes, we get it (there are plenty of reasons not to), but please take it somewhere else.

The first two major awards groups came out with their citations this year–the National Board of Review (which even predates the Oscars) and the New York Film Critics, the oldest critical organization. The results

Picture: LA LA LAND (Ny), MANCHESTER BY THE SEA (Nbr)
Actor: Casey Affleck, MANCHESTER BY THE SEA (Ny, Nbr)
Actress: Amy Adams, ARRIVAL (Nbr), Isabelle Huppert, ELLE and THINGS TO COME (Ny)
Supporting Actor: Jeff Bridges, HELL OR HIGH WATER (Nbr), Mahershala Ali, MOONLIGHT (Ny)
Supporting Actress: Naomie Harris, MOONLIGHT (Nbr), Miichelle Williams, MANCHESTER BY THE SEA and CERTAIN WOMEN
Director: Barry Jenkins, MOONLIGHT (Nbr, Ny)
Screenplay: MANCHESTER BY THE SEA (Nbr, Ny), SILENCE (Nbr)
Foreign Film: THE SALESMAN (Iran), TONI ERDMANN (Germany)
Documentary: O.J.: MADE IN AMERICAN (Nbr, Ny)
Animated Feature: KUBO AND THE TWO STRINGS (Nbr), ZOOTOPIA (Ny)
I’ve seen most of these (most notable omission, the Scorsese) and don’t have any major issues. They’re all strong, distinctive films, so it’ll be interesting to see which continue to gather momentum on the awards circuit and during the campaign season, which is well underway within industry circles.

The Critics Choice award nominations also came out. They delve as much into the craft and technical categories (like the Academy does), as opposed to just above-the-line awards. Here are the nomination tallies:

12 LA LA LAND
10 ARRIVAL, MOONLIGHT
8 MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
7 HACKSAW RIDGE
6 DOCTOR STRANGE*, FENCES, HELL OR HIGH WATER, JACKIE, LION

*almost all nominations are in the Action genre category, which has no analogue with AMPAS. Here’s the full list of nominees.

It’s too early to make predictions, though of the 3 current front-runners, LA LA LAND (directed by WHIPLASH’s Damien Chazelle) has the inside track because it’s a California-based feel-good musical that’s more superficially uplifting than the powerful-but-mournful MANCHESTER and the wonderful-but-soft-spoken MOONLIGHT.

There’ll be a ton of similar awards from across the country (and the pond) over the next month, so it’ll be interesting to see what additional names and titles come into play.

2

Hopefully screeners are sent out like normal. I might have a chance to see some of these.

Note: For the curious, my colleague’s husband is in the director’s guild and gets the screeners. She lets me borrow them.

3

Well, some big developments in the last 24 hours. First of all, the Broadcast Film Critics gave their awards last night. They have represented the most consistently reliable predictor of Oscar winners among the critic organizations in the last few years. Last year, of the 18 winners in categories recognized by the Academy, 14 of the “Critics Choice” (as the award is known) went on to win the big one. The year before (Birdman) was 8-for-18, but the year before that (12 Years a Slave) was 16-for-18.

This year’s winners
Picture: La La Land
Actor: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Actress: Natalie Portman, Jackie
Supp. Actor: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Supp. Actress: Viola Davis, Fences
Director: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Orig. Screenplay: La La Land and Manchester by the Sea (tie)
Adap. Screenplay: Arrival
Cinematography: La La Land
Art Direction: La La Land
Editing: La La Land
Costumes: Jackie
Score: La La Land
Song: “City of Stars”, La La Land
Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
Makeup: Jackie
Animated Feature: Zootopia
Foreign Language Film: Elle

This morning, the Golden Globe nominations were announced. Here’s a link to the individual nods, but here’s a tally of the top films:

7 La La Land*
6 Moonlight
5 Manchester by the Sea
4 Florence Foster Jenkins, Lion*
3 Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Nocturnal Animals

(* indicates competing as Comedy/Musical for those categories that split it with Drama)

So the race still appears to be a three-way competition, with LLL having the edge because of its tone (more uplifting), subject (struggling artists) and location (Hollywood). Plus, like The Artist and Birdman, it has a hook–in this case, that it’s a contemporary musical (and not just a stage adaptation). Based on other recent critical winners, most of the acting buzz is focusing on a few people per category, too (more on that in a bit).

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So this is what the acting landscape looks like.

ACTOR: Casey Affleck is the one to beat, with a terrific performance in a powerful and widely-praised film which will have plenty of Academy support in other categories. He’s been nominated before (The Assassination of Jesse James…) but never won.

His closest competition appears to be Denzel Washington, who is supposed to be phenomenal (unsurprisingly) in Fences. The biggest obstacle is that he’s already won twice, and while there have been a few three-fers in the last couple decades (M. Streep, D. Day-Lewis), it’s still a rare thing and there has to be a compelling reason to go that way.

Other contenders: Andrew Garfield, Tom Hanks, Joel Edgerton, Viggo Mortensen, Ryan Gosling.
ACTRESS

Certainly, the conventional wisdom is that the leaders are previous nom Emma Stone (coat-tailing a huge LLL surge) and Natalie Portman, who’s playing American royalty in a film I personally found quite remarkable. But neither is a slam dunk, and Portman has won before. Arrival would give Amy Adams her sixth nod, but scifi rarely delivers in the acting categories. And certainly a dark horse is Isabelle Huppert, who’s an acting legend that’s sweeping most of the critics awards and starring in a film from a Hollywood vet (Paul Verhoeven) that very well could get nom’d for Best Foreign Language Film. It’s much easier to get a nom without speaking English in this category than the male counterpart, sometimes even winning (like Marion Cotillard). This is very up-in-the-air.

Other contenders: Meryl Streep, Annette Bening, Ruth Negga
SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali from Moonlight has been getting a lot of heat, but the role is an unusual one for a win so it’s hardly a done deal. Jeff Bridges looks poised to pick up his 7th nod for a contemporary Rooster Cogburn, and Lucas Hedges from Manchester is well-positioned for a nod, too. Still very much a crapshoot, especially since the final 5 is probably the hardest to predict.

Other contenders: Michael Shannon, Dev Patel, Issei Ogata, Hugh Grant
SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This is pretty much being seen as a two-person race: Just like Best Actor, it’s Fences (Viola Davis, in essentially a lead role) vs Manchester (Michelle Williams). Both have been nominated multiple times, the choice is between a respected veteran with a ton of screen time vs a talented actress with a huge future and one show-stopping scene. And sometimes, one scene is all you need, though the advantage of extended exposure (and a killer rep) makes it Viola’s to lose.

Other contenders: Naomie Harris, Octavia Spencer, Greta Gerwig, Nicole Kidman

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Maybe if I’m lucky, Manchester By the Sea and La La Land will play somewhere in this area before the Oscar nominations come out. Seriously. I just checked and apparently Moonlight is finally playing at one theater nearby, so if I hurry I’ll have a chance to see it.

It’s really frustrating that all these awards-bait movies have such limited releases, and then we only get to see them in flyover country if they start racking up major box office numbers. Does Office Christmas Party really need to be on three screens?

6

Right, add Fences to the list of movies that don’t show around here. And I don’t live in some Podunk town, this is one of the largest cities in the South. sigh

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SAG nominations came out so I’ve highlighted the nominees in** Red**. The one that I suspect took everyone by surprise is Emily Blunt’s inclusion for The Girl on the Train.

The other big surprise is that La La Land didn’t get an ensemble nomination. These films did:

Captain Fantastic
Fences
Hidden Figures
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Now, while equating Ensemble with Best Picture isn’t entirely correct, the last film to win the top Oscar without getting nominated for ensemble was Braveheart 20 years ago, so that may show some indication of how the actors (which constitute the largest branch in AMPAS) feel about the film.

8

OK, some other major Guild nominations came out–the Producers, Directors, and Writers Guild. Here are how films fared with each:

Arrival - DGA, PGA, WGA
Deadpool - PGA, WGA
Fences - PGA, WGA
Hacksaw Ridge - PGA
Hell or High Water - PGA, WGA
Hidden Figures - PGA, WGA
La La Land - DGA, PGA, WGA
Lion - DGA, PGA
Loving - WGA
Manchester by the Sea - DGA, PGA, WGA
Moonlight - DGA, PGA, WGA
Nocturnal Animals - WGA

The other big news is that La La Land won an unprecedented 7 Golden Globes. Part of that can be attributed to competing in an easier category (Musical/Comedy) than most of the heavy hitters in the Drama category. But that’s still a lot, and even though there’s zero overlap between the voters for the HFPA and AMPAS, it still provides good copy and some valuable momentum.

Its two biggest competitors won one each: Best Picture for Moonlight and Best Actor for Manchester. The other acting winners (aside from Gosling & Stone) were surprises Isabelle Huppert for Elle and Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals and the very expected Viola Davis for Fences.

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I figure either Zootopia or Moana wins for Best Animated Feature, which is really the only Academy Award that I care about apart from Best Original Song. I’d be happy with either of those movies winning, as I thoroughly enjoyed them both.

10

You really thought Moana and Zootopia were better than Kubo and The Two Strings?

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Bump, since the Academy announces the nominees tomorrow.

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It’s not quality. Animated films tend to go to Pixar, Disney, or the biggest box office. Kubo isn’t any of those.

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I’m not all that into awards season this year, although I have seen and liked most* of the movies likely to be nominated, but I just wanted to publicly root for Hidden Figures. I wouldn’t expect it to win anything, but I do hope it gets at least a couple of nominations. The SAG ensemble and PGA nom makes me hope for a Best Picture nomination.

  • This year for the first time I can vote for the Independent Spirit Awards nominees and I’ve been getting screeners in the mail. Most of them I’ve already seen in the theaters, but it’s nice to get a few that I missed, like American Honey and Chronic. There are a few movies nominated I haven’t seen and haven’t received screeners for. That makes me sad because they say you shouldn’t vote in categories where you haven’t seen all the nominees and I take that seriously.
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All the nominations here

What a boring-ass slate of movies, full of movies Hollywood loves, and 90% of the population didn’t even see.

I predict this is the lowest rated Oscars ever because there aren’t even any compelling storylines in it.

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Would you rather they nominate the movies they hated?

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So what movies were missing?

The fact of the matter is, there were no critically-beloved blockbusters this year - no Fury Road or Martian. As much as I loved Star Wars, Captain America 3 and Deadpool, I don’t really think any of them really expected a Best Picture nod.

And hey, we got an actual cerebral science-fiction movie in there. That doesn’t happen that often.

17

The “best” category, IMHO, of making good choices is Best Supporting Actress. Very nice list. The worst is Best Actress. Especially given that the most obvious choices in this (and other) categories have no chance against the inexplicable La La Land hype.

Was Elle not submitted to the Academy by France? Why would Isabelle Huppert get a Best Actress nod but the film doesn’t for Best Foreign Film? It seems to be the most widely regarded foreign film of the year.

Hell or High Water’s 4 nods are interesting. Made hardly any noise at the box office at first but kept chugging along to $27M. The kind of film that people who don’t normally go to movies like to see. And that audience frequently feels their preferences ignored by the Oscars.

18

I am disappointed that Silence was just nominated for Cinematography. I thought it was an incredible movie that deserved better.

19

Is it a snub/shock that Annette Bening didn’t get a nomination for 20th Century Women?

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Welcome to movie-going reality. The public goes to see Marvel comics blockbusters in the summertime. The critics like character-driven dramas released at the holidays. Summer blockbusters seledom get nominated, much less win. And usually there’s a good reason.