All the major precursor awards have been settled, the votes are all in, I think it’s time for me to provide some predictions, otherwise I’ll probably forget to. I’m not going to try to cover every award, because I don’t really care about a lot of them. Because I’m a realist and I do my homework, I’m going to separate the likely winners (Will Win) from my preference (Should Win)
Best Picture – This race is tight, but only between Sinners and One Battle After Another. Honestly, it could go either way. I think the voters will slightly favor the more ”traditional” nominee.
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Hamnet
Best Director – If this was bracketology, I’d be going with “chalk” here, though it isn’t unprecedented for the Best Director winner to not be the director of the Best Picture, in which case, bet on Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Should Win: Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
Best Actress – The only mortal lock in the major categories, she’s won just about every major precursor award and her performance is right down the sweet spot of the Actors Branch, the largest voting membership.
Will Win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Should Win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Best Actor – What looked like a runaway for Chalamet at the start of the year, with DiCaprio a close second now looks like it is going to be Jordan in a very tight race, with DiCaprio having faded badly in the precursors, especially SAG.
Will Win: Michael B Jordan (Sinners)
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
Best Supporting Actress – This one has narrowed to a three-way race among Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), and Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), and it’s almost too close to call. Madigan won SAG and gets to play a standout evil villain but the movie didn’t get much Academy love. Mosaku gets some choice scenes but is in a smaller supporting role. Taylor has a meaty role, but the character may be too unsympathetic for the voters. Let’s flip some coins…
Will Win: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Should Win: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Best Supporting Actor – Worthy performances by all the nominees, all genuinely supporting roles. This is another tight race that is tough to predict. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) is a polarizing person but seems to have gained the momentum just before the voting closed (SAG again). Will his vote split with Del Toro and allow either Elordi or Skarsgård to slide by? Maybe. Maybe not.
Will Win: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Should Win: Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another)
Some odds and ends-
Sentimental Value is the favorite for the International Feature Award and is also a deserving candidate. Nomination for both this award and Best Picture is usually a solid indicator.
Sinners and One Battle After Another aren’t competing in the Screenplay categories, so I expect them to walk away with their respective awards.
K-Pop Demon Hunters is likely to win both Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song, mostly because it’s massively popular with the Academy voters’ grandkids (OK, OK, I kid. Try the veal). I really, really liked Little Amélie or the Character of Rain but it doesn’t have a chance.