The Amazing Race 11/30/04 "Counting Bears Is Not Rocket Science"

Cafe Society
61

That guy is awesome. The Ice Bar task was a gimme - he can hit targets with his eyes closed. The CIA training saw to that.

He doesn’t look the DIY type, but who needs an IKEA leaflet when you’ve got your very own virtual instruction manual under your panama? Which one of you can say in all honesty that you didn’t just know that the Professor would unerringly locate the loaded hay bale at the first time of asking? Okay, he might have rolled a dummy one, but that was to allay suspicions.

So what gave, you ask, with the aimless wandering around Stockholm looking for the Ice Bar? Simple. He’d programmed the wrong name into the GPS system. “Ice Bar” instead of the name of the hotel. Again, could have been a deliberate ploy to throw the organisers off his scent in case they were thinking of asking him to remove the hat and carry out an inspection.

Brilliant episode, even though I lost my team. What grace and what perseverance, though! I think I’d have been blubbing like an idiot after seeing six other teams start after me and finish before me. And however tough it must be physically for the one doing the unrolling, it must even worse for the one on the sidelines unable to do a thing about it.

A bit of luck involved, but I wonder how many envelopes were trampled underfoot as Lena tired and her technique disintegrated like a, well, bale of hay.

The IKEA choices were perfect. I’d have done the desk, my wife would have done the counting (separating them into piles of 20 as someone has already suggested). It really was that difficult to discern in advance which task would be quicker and teamwork was needed in the decision-making as well as in the task completion.

Let’s hope they don’t switch to strength and speed tasks in the final double-episode, as they did last time, so that the oldies have a real chance.

62

I see the IKEA desk they have to put together and I go “Hey! That’s the very same desk I put together for my son last year. It’s easy! Do the desk! Do the desk!”

63

I also would have put the desk together rather than count. I don’t know why anyone thought counting two big ass containers of small little items would have been faster.

Count me with the people that thought Gus was trying to get the person to help him. I remember him saying something like “If I say the number, will you tell me yes” seems to me he was just going to try counting through the numbers untill he hit it.
I could not believe Johnathan made his wife roll out the hay…(well I could, but just thought it was stuipid)…I mean…sure you did the last Roadblock, but that was riding down a freakin’ wire…ya moron. I would have loved it if they had been eliminated because of that.

I was way impressed by the sisters. I don’t think I would have kept going for 8 solid hours…and I wonder if she really just didn’t pick one with a clue. I’m almost positive the camera man would have shown if she had just missed one…they’re usually pretty good at noticing stuff like that.

64

Didn’t he say that he suffered from hay fever, so she would have to do this task? (Or was that someone else?)

65

Just think of all the tape they waste on this show – because they had to film her for the whole eight hours so they’d catch the moment when (if) she found the clue. Yikes. I assume the cameraperson (or someone) keeps a log of highlights so the editors don’t have to wade through the whole thing, but still…

66

I don’t think he does. I think several people said the phrase hay fever.

I think it was one of the buzzwords on the card, because two other people said it and then did the task (Gus and the ill-fated Utah sister).

67

If I’ve got the numbers right – 200 bales, with 20 clues, and she unrolled 100 – the odds of her not finding one were 180/200 * 179/199 * 178/198…*80/100. That’s a really small number.

68

Eh…not that small. 0.9 ** 20 = 12%. It’s a little less than that.

69

Actually, according to the official site it was 270 bales of hay.

70

Even with 270 bales of hay, I get the odds of her not finding any clue (using jsc1953’s assumptions) to be like 1 in 16,000. That’s likely an overestimate of the unlikelyness, as other teams removed clues as they found them, but still, a lower bound, where there’s only 12 clues in a field of 270, would give odds something like 1 in 500. Assuming I did my math right. I think it’s more likely she just missed a clue somewhere.

71

I think the way that some of them did it (tearing at the bale instead of rolling it out) was a serious mistake in strategy. There’s no guarantee that the clue is going to be in the middle of the bale. That means that if you just tear into it from one side and stop when you get to the middle, it’s entirely likely that you’re going to miss at least half of the clues in the bales that you actually do. And it’s probably actually more tiring to pull something like that apart than it is to push it along.

72

I thought the same thing. It definetly is easier to roll a hay bale than to rip it open.

I wondered if some where just harder to roll open. It seemed like even when they were trying to roll them, the bales would sometime break up into clumps.
Is there ever a clip show with extra footage? I think we might get some answer in a show like that.

Surely the crew knew which bales had the clues.

73

But they couldn’t just film the racers doing the “right” bales – if the camerpersons hung out watching until the racer got to a bale with a clue in it, then started filming, that would be a huge giveaway to the racer. I guess they could pretend to be filming but not actually run tape for the others, but I’m not sure in terms of the overall budget of the show the wasted tape would be such a big deal.

74

Finally got a chance to watch my tape last night. I can’t wait for my dog’s Tuesday night obedience classes to end!

OK, how good is this season so far? The last two legs have been featured the sorts of challenges that I always thought Amazing Race should have. Excrutiating Roadblocks, truly evenly-balanced Detours. Applause! Encore!

From the Leaderboard:

Hayden/Aaron: They seem to have gotten some sleep since the last leg, and got along much better again this week. Whoever their camera team was on this leg REEEEEALLY likes Hayden’s chest. It received numerous favorable angles, including the pitstop mat, where it DID seem she was about to flash ol’ Phil. Another great showing from a team that, barring unforseen disaster, will surely be in the final.

Kris/Jon: Clearly the team to beat, but, so far, what little screentime Team Mystery Mannequin has received reveals not a shred of personality between them. But then again, I felt the same way about Rob/Brennan, the winners of TAR1. I guess there’s a lot to be siad for skipping the theatrics and simply, quietly, kicking everyone’s ass.

Gus/Hera: On the one hand, still full of surprises. ON the other hand, still couldn’t navigate their way out of a paper bag. But two 3rd place showings this early isn’t anything to sneeze at. As lolng as they can keep finding their way to the Pit Stop, they have a chance.

Assathon/Victoria: Please, people. Have we not eyes? He was rearing back to hit her, and had he not had a camera on him, he would have. “He’s never boring”?!?!? Neither is watching blood well up under your skin, I suppose. To each their own. I pray for an eleimination next week.

Adam/Rebecca: Team Head Game got very little focus this week. Something to remember come next Thanksgiving.

Freddy/Kendra: Similarly lost in the shuffle. They’re just cruising until inevitable elimination.

Lori/Bolo:I truly do think they’ve simply managed to incorporate their "roid rages into an otherwise healthy relationship, and that there is an unspoken “no harm no foul” exchanged after every argument. But the season is young. I think finding out that you’re not the only team who can’t seem to count for beans is a bonding experience, explaining the courtesy between them and…

Don/Mary Jean: Pathetic. YES, he was begging for some kind of free pass on this task. YES, he asked the supervisor if she would confirm it if he just guessed the right number without counting again. If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. They won’t be in the race by two eliminations from now at the most.

Lena/Kristy: OK, let’s hash this out. 270 bales, 20 clues, if I am not mistaken. Editing makes it impossible to tell how many bales each team unrolled before finding a clue, so let’s say it took each team but them 5 tries on average to find it. They were the third team to arrive.

So:

Odds of finding a clue at the beginning: 20/270, or 7.4%
Odds after team 1: 19/265, 7.1%
Odds after team 2: 18/260, 6.9%, which are the odds L&K faced when they arrived. So let’s say each additional team took five tries, and Lena managed to unroll 5 more in the meantime.
Odds after team 3: 17/250, or 6.8%
Odds after team 4: 16/240, or 6.6%
Odds after team 5: 15/230, or 6.5%
Odds after team 6: 14/220, or 6.3%
Odds after team 7: 13/210, or 6.1%
Odds after team 8: 12/200, or 6%

After that, with each roll, her odds simply go up: 12/199=6.03%, 13/208=6.06%, 13/207=6.09%, etc.

Now, Phil might have been engaging in some hyperbole, but let’s assume that she DID unroll 100 bales. She did 30 by the time Don found his, and did 70 more.

Her final odds, by the time Phil eliminated them, would have been 13/ 100, or 13%, and not to much smaller than that before he arrived.

If my guesses are correct, then it is not particularly surprising that she took so long, since at no time did she have less than an 87% chance of failing to find a bale with a clue.

But then again, that would make it a statistical anomaly that all the other teams found theirs so quickly. Hmmm… (can you tell I was really routing for this team?)

Let’s suppose instead that each team took the statistically like average number of tries to find the clue. At the beginning, the odds are one clue out of every 13.5 bales. So lets say that Aaron and Jon unrolled 27 bales between them and found two clues before L&K arrived. Their odds were then 18/243, or 2/27, the same odds as a the start. 6 other teams found clues, and if they also rolled 13.5 bales apiece, then if Lena had sat around and done nothing the whole time, her odds would have been 12/162, or still 2/27 by the time Don found his clue.

Soon her odds of finding a clue are 12/160: 7.5%, or about 1 in 13 (2 bales unrolled)
Then 12/150: 8%, or about 1 in 12.5 (12 bales unrolled)
Then 12/140: 8.5%, or about 1 in 11.6 (22 bales unrolled)
Then 12/130: 9.2%, or about 1 in 11 (32 bales unrolled)
Then 12/120: 10%, or 1 in 10 (42 bales unrolled)
Then 12/110: 10.9%, or 1 in 9 (52 bales unrolled)
Then 12/100: 12%, or 1 in 8.3 (62 bales unrolled)
Then 12/90: 13.3% or 1 in 7 (72 bales unrolled)
Then 12/80: 15% or 1 in 6.6 (82 bales unrolled)
Then 12/70: 17.1%, or 1 in 5.8 (92 bales unrolled)
Then 12/60: 20%, or 1 in 5 (102 bales unrolled)
Then 12/50: 24% or about 1 in 4 (112 bales unrolled)

I assume Phil arrived somwhere around the time of the last two entries, unless he wasn’t giving an accurate estimate of her efforts.

Now on the one hand, she never had less than a 75% chance of picking a bale with no clue. But the odds of choosing wrong over and over and over in so many tries seem small. So either

a) Phil was exaggerating
b) The other teams were all improbably fortunate by repeatedly locating a clue in less than 13.5 tries, and she had more bales to unroll than I figured
c) Something screwy was going on
d) South Park was right: Heaven belongs to the Mormons, and a jealous and angry God smote Lena for lapsing.

Your answer?

75

How about e) She and the other teams overlooked some clues.

Though I would expect the camera people to find some evidence of that, maybe.

76

I have one more:

e) Other teams trampled under a bunch of clues during sloppy unrolling of bales, thereby reducing the number of “findable” clues, which totally skews your odds.

I noticed that during the unrolling, some bales started to fall apart at the end, and I’m wondering how many clues got lost/missed by the person unrolling the bale. And then you have Don, who started out not unrolling, but just tearing at the outside of a bale.

Unless Kristy was also checking bales unrolled by other teams for possible missed clues, I think it’s entirely possible that the bales that she unrolled herself simply didn’t have any clues and she got totally boned.

77

I agree with you entirely. I assume that the camera man in on the racer the entire challenge and is constantly filming. I meant to imply that the crew would know that she overlooked one and get footage of the clue (probably the next day) sitting in a bale of hay she’d already unrolled.

78

:smack:

Yeah, that makes sense. You’re right, of course.

79

These two are the clear favorites; the only way either are going to miss the top three is an unforeseen calamity. I have to get the slight edge to K/J, since they haven’t screwed up once, unlike A/H who ran an unremarkable leg in Norway. (And still managed to come in 4th then.)

I do like the fact that both teams appear to be in a friendly rivalry right now; racing – the little bike race to the roadblock – when necessary, cooperating – heading to the pit stop in tandem when they know they’re 1&2 – when not.

Gus actually seemed to have a good understanding of the Stockholm bus system, of all things. This team has an enjoyable quirk of pulling random things they’re good at out of a hat.

You know what the really, really annoying thing is? That I can’t think of a good reason why these two have any less chance of making the top 3 than Gus/Hera, Adam/Rebecca, Lori/Bolo, or Freddy/Kendra. I want to see Phil smile, say to Jonathan’s face “I’m not sorry to say; you’ve both been eliminated from the race” and laugh an evil, evil laugh while jumping up and down in glee. But I can’t think of any obvious reason why they won’t stick around for a few more episodes.

This is the team that I can’t figure out. They’re running in the middle of the pack, but expect for the clue box, I can’t think of any huge mistake they’ve made. Kris and Jon have taken flak for having little personality besides their obvious enthusiasm, but the most defining feature of these two right now is that they take up space. Not trying too hard to be leader right now and saving their energy for the end of the race? Or simply mediocre racers? Who knows?

I suspect these two have the greatest chance of being eliminated next after Don/Mary Jean. They’ve shown themselves to be really, really bad at navigation
and have consistently lost position because of that.

The only thing keeping these two in the race right now was L/K’s hideous encounter with the hay bale; the only edge senior teams can have over younger competitors is mental and being bested in counting by Adam/Rebecca – a team saddled with an emotional infant (or for that matter, being no better than “Me not like the 70’s” Bolo) – is kind of a disgrace.

80

Y’know, this team has kind of grown on me. After the first leg, I though they would be eliminated quickly – too slow, not physical enough, some mental mistakes. Since then, they seem to have cleaned up their act. Still slow, but slow like tortoise; competant and methodical.

Plus, as others have noted, it seemed perfectly obvious to me that the counting task was way more risky. First step to intelligently completing the Detour os to choose the correct option.

On the upside, I’m finding that I actually don’t mind a lot of the teams. I actively like Hayden/Aaron, Kris/Jon, Gus/Hera, Don/MJ, and Lori/Bolo, as well as the last couple teams eliminated. I’m a bit indifferent toward Freddy/Kendra (lack of screen time) and Adam/Rebecca (some issues there), but I’m fine if one of then pulled it out and won. Liking all but one reality show contestantis a weird experience. I wonder if Johnathon is some kind of asshole sink that attracts particles of assholishness, stripping it bit by bit from the other teams as the race goes on, thus making everyone else not only look better, but be better? It bears thinking about. If only he were an entrepeneur, he could probably bottle that skill and make a mint.