I’ve been pondering a scenario where Collins, Murkowski, and Romney become independents or switch parties. They might actually have more power in that situation than less.
Picture this scenario. The Republicans win the two Georgia senate seats. These three offer to become independents who causes with the Democrats or switch parties altogether. Let’s take it a step further and say that in exchange, one of them gets to be the next Democratic majority leader. As a Democrat, I’d be willing to take them up on such an offer if it means McConnell losing his ability to seriously handicap the Biden administration.
That’s great that you’d be willing to take them up on that offer, but how do you think that Dick Durbin, Patty Murray and other Senate Democrats who have spent decades fighting for Democratic priorities in the Senate would feel about being upjumped by colleagues who voted for Mitch McConnell for majority leader as recently as last month?
It is in Tuberville’s best interest to protest the electoral vote. He suddenly moves from junior senator bubba to the spearpoint of a Presidential coup. His constituency would back him all the way. He’s been handed the opportunity of a lifetime. Why wouldn’t he take it?
But it would also establish the tone for the partisan war against Joe Biden’s presidency – there’s really no political downside to it if you’re in a state like Alabama. The coup kabuki isn’t strictly about defending Trump, but Trumpism, and it is about maintaining the partisan warfare against the enemy. The Republican party has made it very clear: there will be no bipartisanship, and the Democrats are not an opposition party, but a political enemy that must be steamrolled.
After reading this WaPo article, the thought that’s crystallized in my mind is that there won’t be a successful coup, fortunately, which we’ve mostly agreed upon. However, going forward, it’s very clear what a future authoritarian would do.
Trump would also need military buy-in, and military leaders have said they’re not interested in entertaining any of these ideas. Experts were heartened that military leaders expressed regret for participating in a clearing of peaceful protesters outside the White House this summer so the president could pose for a photo he used for political purposes.
The next authoritarian would probably zero in on that “problem” early on. A Trump 2.0 would immediately scour the ranks of the DoD and look for “Biden officers” and “Biden generals” and fire them on the basis that these are partisan deep state actors who are pro-Biden and not pro-USA or pro-Constitution. Instead of waiting until year 4, which he did this time, he’d start much earlier. We’re fortunate that Trump was fixated on trying to clean out the DoJ more than he was the Pentagon. Otherwise, we could have had a real problem on our hands.
They’ve already established that. They don’t need Trump to provide opposition. They already had that with the Tea Party pre-Trump. Trump is likely a detriment because he’ll continue to attack the R part as being disloyal without providing any positives. He’ll just be a disruptive force going forward.
McConnell doesn’t want the Senate to do it because they can’t win, they won’t even get near the number of votes to do it, and it puts pressure on people who voted no from Trump and his voters.
On a whole, bringing this to a vote for the Senate is a big negative, in order for freshman Tuberville to do his vanity vote.
It’s a classic prisoner’s dilemma for Senate Republicans. Mitch is right, they’d all be better off if they all agreed not to object to the EVs. But any individual Republican who does object would realize a political bonanza as he would becomes the hero of the Trumpists. And once they’re forced to vote, most Senate Republicans will try to outdo each other in their Trumpiness to show that they’re just as Trumpy – nay, MORE Trumpy – than the Senator who raises the objection. Because they either want to run for President as Trump’s heir apparent in 2024 (Cruz, Hawley, Cotton) or are terrified of being knocked off in their next primary by a Trumpier alternative.
It could almost be an interesting case study for an intro poli sci course, if the future of our democracy weren’t at stake.
I frankly see less of a dilemma. Trump works with two kinds of people - family members and utter toadies. To think he’s going to endorse you as some sort of up and comer is completely naive. He’s not going to do that. Remember that Trump thinks the world is zero sum. Trump’s tacit vision is the USA turning inward and destroying itself. He doesn’t have the ability to world build anything and never has. So someone that thinks they’ll become a hero by fighting this battle is delusional.
I think @flurb meant that being Trumply would ensure a powerful endorsement from the voters, not from Trump. As you say, Trump cares about only himself.
But if Trump dies, or loses interest, or defects to Russia, or whatever, somebody gets to inherit the MAGAs. Or more accurately, somebody will try to jump in front of that mob and catch its attention before it disintegrates.
There will also be Rs who’ve decided that the Trumplicans are the party of the future. So they want to align with it. Not in expectation of favors back from Trump himself, but because that’s where the gravy train will be and the sooner you start toadying the sooner you get to the upper levels of what’s de facto a pyramid scheme of corrupt power games. The only thing worse than being in the inner circle is being 2 rungs below the inner circle while the folks below are playing crabs-in-a-bucket with your legs. The higher you are the sooner the better.
And very possibly that person will be a media figure–Tucker Carlson, or John Cena (if he’s on the right), for example–rather than a current Senator or Representative.
A NASCAR driver, or a country-music star—someone who’s made a lot of money. Trump had the image of being someone who’s made a lot of money, even though the opposite was true. But the image of being “a smart businessman,” false though it was, was genuinely important to growing his fandom.
In short, the decisions made by Tuberville and others in Congress, on whether or not to try to back Trump’s coup, probably matter not at all to the long-term prospects of the authoritarian right. The next führer will be someone from TV, not someone from Congress (sorry, Ted!)
I’m gonna guess Cena is not on the right. He did a pro-gay PSA a while back, has been publily learning mandarin and working in China, and recently married an Iranian. Not your typical profile on the right.
Odd that (as I type this, anyway), BI is the only source for that story. Paywalled, but when I hunted down the article in google, for some reason the article could be viewed.
How to proceed? How about grow a spine and override the veto. That’s the only way the fever is going to break. Defending Confederate names on Army bases is not a hill you want to die on.
