Yeah, that’s exactly what people said about Bush. He was an idiot, surely he would be surrounded by solid, experienced advisers, and after four years someone better would come along and Bush would go off into history as a dumb one-term president who didn’t do much of anything and didn’t wreck anything. Then September 11th happened, followed by Afghanistan, Guantanamo, Iraq, and later the financial crisis. That’s not to ignore all the other factors that played into those events, but you never know what’s going to happen on the world stage or what people will do given an opportunity.
In the barrel?
I’d be all for that, except that lizards are harder to shoot than fish.
Different barrel. Don’t ask.
Wow. Santorum has fallen in the Gallup daily tracking pollfor ten days in a row going from 36 to 25 and Romney rising from 26 to 35.
Could Romney lose his national lead for the sixth time? Probably not but if Santorum wins Ohio, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Wisconsin you have to think it will give him a national boost and put him within striking of distance of Romney again.
However expected Ohio is narrowing with just a two point Santorum lead in the latest Rasmussen poll. You would have to back Romney’s attack machine to pulverize Santorum in the next few days and pull out a win from behind yet again. And of course Romney is going to do well in the delegate count anyway because he is practically guaranteed to win Virginia which is winner-takes-all.
But Santorum didn’t expect to get here - his ground game in Ohio is a shambles - he isn’t even running in 3 districts, and doesn’t have a full slate in six others - Why Rick Santorum's Ohio Delegate Fiasco Could Get Messy - ABC News
So, he could win the state and easily end up with fewer delegates. At that point, a lot of the narrative will depend on how things get spun. Of course, MI wasn’t winner-take-all - it looks like Romney won 16-14 on delegates there (and Ricky is challenging that), but the narrative is ‘win for Romney’.
The media narrative generally pays attention to the popular vote and ignores delegates entirely until enough delegates have been (or are about to be) awarded that who’s ahead in the delegate count really starts to matter.
And for once, I agree with the media narrative. If you need 1,100 delegates to win the nomination, and one candidate leads in delegates by 87-54, that lead’s so small relative to the remaining delegates that it’s immaterial.
The point of winning the early primaries isn’t picking up delegates; it’s to get people in subsequent primaries to take your candidacy seriously, and seriously consider voting for you. Winning the popular vote in a primary or caucus is the key credential there.
BTW, who are the anti-immigration, trade-protectionist paleocons backing?
The latest 538 projection has Romney with a 65% chance in Ohio and closing rapidly on Santorum in Tennessee. If he can win the latter I would say the race is all but over. Santorum really needs to pull out a win in Ohio to keep the race alive and it’s hard to see how he can do it. No has figured out how to stop Romney in a large, competitive state when he gets his advertising/endorsement/organization machine up and running. The circus was fun while it lasted but it’s probably going to leave town on Tuesday.