I have some ideas but they would require support from you/people in Oz I think.
We got it to reverse in the UK in the summer but it was the driest summer we’ve had in years. As a consequence, the pitches were dry but so, crucially, were the outfields, which meant the ball got scuffed up a bit more. The outfields seem (on the TV) reasonably lush in Oz through this tour. Is this actually the case? If so, they might not be getting the same wear on the ball that they have got in series past. This is all part of home field advantage and I am all for it, if the outfields have been well watered. I’d have done the same if the roles were reversed.
Anderson has not been the same since we bowled him into the ground to win at Trent Bridge. I suspect he may be carrying an injury. Whatever, he is not the same guy at the minute - so there is another factor as to why reverse may not be happening, one of our key guys is not right. I don’t think he’s forgotten how he’s succeeded, I just think we’ve kippered him - and he’s also not getting much support from his third and fourth seamer, nor his spinner.
(As an aside Troy Cooley did a good job with many of our bowlers but Anderson was not one of them, he totally knackered his action and ruined him for a good couple of years until David Saker told him to back to his old methods, and lo and behold he started taking wickets).
I also think that our pace bowling stocks have been revealed to be weaker than we thought. At least from the guys that went on tour. When your third seamer (and even though Stokes took 6 wickets he went at 5 an over, so you can chuck in our fourth seamer too) is getting whacked around, you’ve got a different game going on than the one England have been used to in the last 18 months - i.e. bore the hell out of people by bowling dry when the ball isn’t doing much, so that wickets may come through attrition rather than the miracle ball.
It has also not helped that Swann was very effectively targeted - usually he would be the one that you’d expect to get wickets whilst someone was holding an end up with pace bowling. This leads to players perhaps trying to do too much to get guys out instead of being patient and taking what reverse they can get whilst also being sensible about their run rates. All this told means that when Broad and Anderson are fresh, they are still bowling OK - not going for too many runs - but once they’re off (and they might have taken a couple of wickets, so you’re into the middle order then), you see guys who are not up to snuff, bowling badly, with a soft ball, that they can’t get to reverse. As a result Smith, Haddin and Johnson get to do what they want.
Selection has also been pretty poor with respect to the spin bowling - though this is perhaps off the topic of reverse swing. We probably set Kerrigan back 5 years at The Oval at the tail end of our summer and, instead of sticking with Monty in this test, have blooded Borthwick, who has promise but is still learning his craft. If they were wedded to an offie who isn’t Monty, they should have played Treadwell. That said, I am sort of pro blooding new players - they’re just so inconsistent in their application. If you really are building for the future, shouldn’t Root rather than the 33 year old Carberry have opened in this match?
So I think that there are a number of factors that could well be in play. I think, unlike many of the English journos who seem to be beating the drum that England are just sticking to the tried and true and need to do something different, that they have moved away from tactics that have worked for them in the past, some because of the opposition taking it away from them, some due to their own failings and some perhaps due to factors that they can’t really control.
I don’t even know whether I have answered your question. This has turned into a bit of a rant. Sorry about that.