The Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2010 thread

God sweet damn, you’re impossible to ignore, I’ll say that for you. You’re going to resort to your favorite old rolleyes picture when you’re this obviously mistaken?

Marley asked a question. Do you know what that question was? “Wait, why is an infield hit worth less than an outfield hit?”

Now here you are.

What part of “That isn’t the proper comparison” doesn’t make sense to you?

Is there a different hall of fame for speedsters or something?

If you want to fantasized how players would perform in an alternate reality where they don’t have the same bodies they do in this one, then go right ahead. Sorry to interrupt.

I understand the concept, but given that Ichiro is a leadoff hitter in the AL, this doesn’t seem important. :stuck_out_tongue:

It’s an interleague game being played in an NL park. Also, if the opposition intentionally walks the batter, a giant flying saucer stationed directly overhead will open fire, annihilating the stadium and both teams.

Thats depends. Who are they playing?

Not the Yankees.

We’re talking about that comparison, for one. The comparison between outfield and infield hits, because Marley asked about that comparison.

Two, even if we assume all the conclusions that you jumped to – viz that calling outfield hits more valuable than infield hits is intended as a knock on Ichiro’s Hall of Fame worthiness, and that if it’s a knock on Ichiro it must be accompanied by an implicit claim that Ichiro is not a good baseball player and that infield singles are an indication of this – even if we assume all of that and jump right to the point you’re arguing, here’s what doesn’t make sense. Ichiro’s total number of hits are his number of hits, and his batting average is his batting average.

The fact that he got his hits instead of groundouts doesn’t improve the value of his hits. In fact, compared to the other kind of hits that he could have gotten, given that we already know how many hits he had, he got pretty much the least valuable kind of hits he could have gotten in those at-bats. He got infield hits instead of groundouts very often, sure, that’s true. But we’re already giving him credit for getting the hit – that he got a single instead of an out is a given before we even start the discussion. All his home runs were in lieu of flyouts, all his triples were in lieu of foul balls or doubles or lineouts or groundouts, etc. He gets 230 hits a year, therefore, he’s a good hitter. Now, how good? Well, most of his hits were the least likely kind of hit to score a bunch of runs, so that counts for something, because infield hits are less valuable than the other kind, which is the point that we were bouncing around just now.

Now, that was a good faith answer to your question, despite your constant sneering and jabbing at “Basement Baseball.” Then, on preview:

And this is exactly the problem that you’re having. We, we being defined as those of us in this thread for the last page or so who are not you, we are the reality-based baseball community. There exists a real world where Ichiro has 2030 hits, and 30-whatever percent of those hits are infield singles. He got those singles because he is lithe and springy and left-handed and he gets out of the box like a fucking jackrabbit. That’s the reality we’re talking about and assessing the value of his hits in. “Alternate reality?” Sorry, are you claiming that Ichiro’s 2030 hits are not 30-some percent infield hits? Are you claiming that when we assess a value to Ichiro’s hits based on how many of them were in fact, on a baseball diamond, in a regular season Major League Baseball contest, scored as infield hits?

Tell me about it. Elvis, you’d fit right in over there. :smiley:

Since you replied anyway:

So he had a choice of which kind of hit he could get in a given at-bat, and chose the less-valuable ones instead? Sure, hard hits are better than soft ones, compared one to one. Homers are better than singles too, compared one to one. But that’s a fantasyland comparison.

But Marley is trying, it seems, to discount his infield hits for not being outfield hits instead of recognizing that they have been mostly groundouts he legged out. Why not discount them further for not being home runs? It would make as much sense.

Not nearly. Come on now. What was that about good faith, again?

Suzuki (I’m not buying into that first-name crap that MLB has let him get away with) is a great hitter because those 30-some percent of his hits were, in fact, not the groundouts that they would have been for a slower player. His speed is part of his greatness. If you want to invert that and use those hits as evidence of him being unable to hit the ball hard consistently, as it seems you do, well, go right ahead.

Look, I started this mess by adjusting Ichiro’s numbers, so here, again, is the rational.

Nearly 40% of Ichiro’s singles have been infield variety.
Infield singles are less valuable than outfield singles.

I don’t think there’s any argument on either count, and I really have no idea where you dredged up the idea that I (we?) were trying to throw those hits out altogether.

The little math I did basically pro-rated Ichiro’s infield singles to be valued between a walk and an average single, and I even said in the very same post that was probably too much of a discount.

But the fact remains that Ichiro’s SLG% (which is where I should have started) is very low for an HOF candidate, AND it is somewhat inflated by his propensity for leg hits.

Fair enough, I guess, but how many hits does he not get, because he is able to beat out a double play ball that most wouldn’t.

And how many extra double plays does he hit into, because he hits the ball on the ground so much? These aren’t a theoretical question though. We can easily look up how many double plays he hits into and compare it to the avg major leaguer. We can even get more techinical than that if you want the comparisons to be more accurate. There is no need to fantasize.

Dunno about average (or average AL leadoff hitter, which would be more appropriate, since leadoff hitters come up to bat less often with runners on base), but his career rate of 5 GIDP per 162 games compares favorably to Rickey Henderson’s 9.

I’m assuming you’re asking how many times Ichiro has beaten the double play, so let’s compare him to Frank Thomas.

Thomas grounded into 225 DP in 10074 PA’s; Ichiro, 43 in 6574. Multiply that out to get Ichiro on pace for 66 GIDP in the same number of plate appearances. But there’s something else at play, namely that leadoff guys bat less often (33% of the time) than sluggers (48%) with men on base. Make that conversion and you have Ichiro on pace for 96 GIDP in 10074 PA’s, meaning he would beat the throw about 129 times compared to Frank Thomas-6 or 8 extra times on base a year.

Percentages from here.

And in fact looks to be very very good - Kenny Lofton is also at 9, as is Craig Biggio, and I haven’t found anyone with a GIDP/162 number better than 5 - among those I looked at, only Brett Butler and Vince Coleman were that good, and both of them led off in the NL for most of their careers.

Well, that is what I meant by more techinical. We could compare what percentage of a time Ichiro hits into a dp with a runner on first and less than two outs as compared to an avg hitter. If you want an even better answer we could look at the avg speed of the baserunner. The point is we can answer these questions.

At any rate 5 per 162 is incredibly low. Newly elected Jim Rice’s was over 24 and he didn’t get close to as many at bats per. That is almost 20 extra outs a season, a pretty significant difference.

Biggio’s 1997 is one of the most incredible seasons ever. His surface number are good enough, but in 744 pa he hit into a grand total of 0 double plays. In addition he was hit by pitch 34 for times, which you can add to his already impressive 415 obp.

Using the criteria of plate appearances in double play situations* (man on 1–, 12-, 1-3, 123), Ichiro hits into a DP 3.13% of the time. Rickey Henderson does so 5.81% of the time. I’d say that’s significant, unless Henderson had some sort of knack for it. Derek Jeter - 7.75%. Got a different person to compare him to? On the bottom end I thought Brad Ausmus would give us a nice basement - 9.41%.

Wow - Brad Ausmus is three times more likely to hit into a double play than Ichiro.

*not adjusted for situations with 2 outs.