It’s no big news that Ichiro can play some ball. Still, looking at his career in the American major leagues is pretty damn impressive. In his 10 full seasons he’s had over 200 hits EVERY year. OBP has never dipped below .350 and averages .375. OPS+ never below 106 with an average of 117. Average BA is .330, with a low of .303. On some good and some bad Mariner teams he’s averaged 106 runs a season. And durability? How about an average of 691 ABs a year. Oh yeah, he was 27 when he first came over.
I knew his numbers were good, but I did not know they were that good. He’s got a decent shot at Cooperstown…
I think he’s a lock for Cooperstown. Two of Baseball-Reference’s four Hall of Fame standards have him already in the Cooperstown range and he’s real close on the other two. Of course, I’m not saying that these standards are be-all/end-all. However, I imagine the writers that vote for the HOF will also consider his age when he came over as well as his career while playing in Japan. If they take those things into consideration, he’s a borderline first-balloter.
And he’s a ten-time gold-glover out there. I don’t see how he doesn’t get a plaque in upstate New York.
If you count his Japanese statistics, he’s only 681 hits away from Pete Rose. Anyone think he’s not going to play 3-4 more years? That puts him right around 40…
Yep, he’s a mortal lock for the HoF, especially considering the aesthetics of him vs. Bonds and the roid crew.
His statistics are interesting to look over, IMO, because they reflect a rather different approach to hitting than is typical in the US. So much of his value came from singles, with relatively few walks and not a ton of power. I would think a list of post-deadball-era players with high OPS+ and low ISO would be dominated by Ichiro.
I also remember when Rose said he would let Ichiro count his Japan-league hits - haven’t heard that offer lately, eh?
Just imagine if he’d played on a team with a bunch of good hitters for his entire career, like say as the lead off guy for the Yanks. OK, don’t imagine that. I just fed the Evil Empire a little more mystical energy. Damn!
Definitely the most successful player to make the Japan to USA/MLB transition, by far.
I am thoroughly unimpressed by an average OPS+ of 117. He has a career wOBA of .353, which is solidly above average but nowhere near close to superstardom. Hall of famers average 60 wins above replacement; Ichiro is at 50.
Does his plus-glove and baserunning make up for what he lacks with the bat? I think it’s irrelevant, since HoF voters have shown they’re in love with batting average and hits, but if Ichiro retired today AND the decision were up to me, I’d probably leave him out in the cold. But if he gives another few quality seasons, I’d probably give him the nod.
He is at 54.9, and it is meaningless anyway because it is a career stat. In the seven years in Japan before coming to MLB, he won seven batting titles and three MVP’s. His first year in MLB he won the MVP, so we know for a fact that his stats in Japan transfer to MLB. Not at a 1-1 rate, but close. If he were in MLB at age 20 or 21 as he likely would have been, his career WAR would be somewhere in the high 80’s.
84% of players with a career WAR over 63 are in the Hall. Nobody with a WAR above 80 is not in the Hall except A-Rod and Barry Bonds (and that includes Pete Rose at 74.9.)
54.9 WAR is pretty damned good for a guy who only has ten years in the league.
Of course he will be elected to the Hall of Fame. I will be absolutely shocked if he isn’t whisked in on the first ballot.
Aside from the fact that he is a very good hitter and a magnificent defensive outfielder - if we’re going by WAR, he is already one of the 50 most valuable defensive players in the history of the major leagues, an amazing accomplishment for an outfielder to acheive in just ten seasons - I think you have to give Suzuki some credit for being a pioneer for Japanese position players and an ambassador of Japanese baseball. I’d vote for him.
Ichiro’s one of my favourite players - he always looks like a baseball player, not like an unmade bed like Manny Ramirez. Plus, you know, all the baseball skillz.
I’m trying to figure out where he hid the trampoline for this catch. 
50.5 WAR from Fangraphs, which I tend to trust more than BBRef.
And I was just judging him on the merits of his US career. If you want to give him extra credit, that’s up to you.
He’s had a very impressive career in the States, although I know some people give him a little less credit because so many of his hits are infield singles. Even if you don’t count his performance in Japan, once you throw in the fact that he was the first Japanese position player to have any kind of significant impact he’s definitely going to make the Hall. And he’s not done yet.
Satchel Paige went 28-31 in MLB, I guess you’d toss his ass out. Also Cool Papa Bell and Josh Gibson. Or do they qualify because of USA! USA! USA!
Who gives him less credit because most of his hits are infield singles? I’d argue it’s actually harder to get infield singles than if you hit it into the outfield. Most players are out if their batted balls don’t leave the infield, but everybody gets a hit if their balls go into the outfield and aren’t caught.
As a Mariners fan, it’s been a privilege getting to watch most of his games in MLB.
Just because it’s harder doesn’t make it better. Outfield singles are a whole lot more useful than infield singles. It’s extremely hard/rare to advance a runner on an infield single.
You could make an argument that infield singles tend to be worth less since runners tend not to advance as far (for example, a runner at second might score on a single to the outfield, but not if the ball only gets to the shortstop).
That being said, Ichiro’s raised infield singling to an art form. Add in his tremendous defense, apparent agelessness, and significance as a cultural milestone, and IMO you have a first-ballot HOFer. I think there’s something to be said for recognizing truly unique players in the Hall, and Ichiro is one of a kind. It doesn’t hurt that he has been a hell of a contributor based on quantitative metrics.
What they said. (We discussed this in another thread a while ago.) From that standpoint, an infield single is the equivalent of a walk, which is to say it’s certainly better than making an out but it’s less valuable than an outfield hit. So that would devalue that portion of his hits. He’s a remarkable hitter regardless and a singular figure in baseball history, so he’d have my vote for the Hall anyway.
Basically, yes. Satchel Paige and Josh Gibson are in the Hall of Fame because they were magnificent North American professional ballplayers. As it happens, racism kept them out of the major leagues (except for Paige’s twilight years) but they were playing pro ball in the USA and excelling at the same time as Joe DiMaggio and Lou Gehrig.
The Hall of Fame has never recognized Japanese League performance, or else Sadahuru Oh would be in there already. But then, their Hall of Fame doesn’t have MLB stars, either.