There isn’t a single metric out there where those two are even comparable.
Sorry, but you’re dead wrong. On WAR, arguably the single most important metric, Lofton scores one place ABOVE Raines and just below Willie McCovey. The slight offensive advantage of Raines is negated by Lofton’s superior glove.
Fair enough. Here’s a few problems with that, though.
- There are two competing ways to calculate WAR, and Fangraphs has Raines ahead 71 to 65.1.
- WAR is a terrible metric to use when comparing careers, because it starts doing screwy things to the total as you begin comparing one player’s twilight years to another’s. No one really cares about anyone’s Age 43 year, unless it’s spectacular.
Tim Raines was a spectacular player who was overshadowed his entire career by a megastar doing exactly what he was doing. The problem is that Rickey Henderson is one of the top three offensive players to ever play the game in history, and the fact that Rock performed better than every single other leadoff hitter ever gets lost. He got on base more than Tony Gwynn ever did. He was the most effective base runner of all time (that we know of - Caught Stealing wasn’t kept track of for a large portion of the game’s history). His impressive counting stats are marred by the fact that he was screwed over via collusion and the '81 strike.
To my eyes, Bagwell’s numbers look pretty similar to a guy like Willie Stargell, although this era seems to be littered with guys who have pretty similar stats – there’s not a lot of difference between him and, say, Jason Giambi, whom I always thought of as solid player but far from an all-time great. I think he’s a step or two behind Thome and Vlad Guerrero, myself. So then it’s just up to the individual where you draw the line and whether you would include guys close to him like, say, Gallarraga and Carlos Delgado in or out of this group. Small-hall people would leave him out. I would probably leave him out, myself, but I think for whatever reason I remember his decline better than his peak.
Yeah, I don’t disagree. Win Shares also favor Raines over Lofton. I think Raines should be in, no question. All I’m saying is that I think you can make a strong case for Lofton, but I get the sense that people won’t vote for him (or Raines, to an extent) because he just doesn’t “smell” like a Hall of Fame player.
Unlike Jim Rice, who apparently reeks of the Hall. There’s really no other explanation for him.
Agreed on all points. The problem with a guy like Lofton is that career-long dominant defense doesn’t resonate with people very well. Sure - Brooks Robinson, Ozzie Smith - those guys are remembered. But beyond that, it’s an uphill battle.
Not if he had to wait for the last ballot to get in, he doesn’t. Problem is, both he and Lofton were jerks in their playing years and the writers who vote on membership remembered that. Team players get more support than ones who went for personal stats for their next contract, and that’s fine with me.
I’m curious why most people think Lee Smith is an automatic “no?” I believe he was the all time saves leader when he retired and is currently 3rd behind Hoffman and Rivera (both HOF locks). Rollie Fingers is in with well over 100 fewer saves than Smith. Otherwise, Fingers and Smith have similar career numbers.
Larry Walker - no.
Roberto Alomar- Yes.
Carlos Baerga - No
Jeff Bagwell - Yes.
Harold Baines - No.
Bert Blyleven - Yes.
Bret Boone - No
Kevin Brown - no
John Franco - no
Juan Gonzalez - no
Marquis Grissom - No
Lenny Harris - Yes. PSYCH! No
Bobby Higginson - No. Doesn’t anyone screen these candidates?
Charles Johnson - No.
Barry Larkin - Yes.
Al Leiter - No
Edgar Martinez - Yes
Tino Martinez - No.
Don Mattingly - No.
Fred McGriff - No
Mark McGwire - Holding nose but yes
Raul Mondesi - No.
Jack Morris - Yes
Dale Murphy - No.
John Olerud - No
Rafael Palmiero - No. I don’t know how you can compile all those stats without one of them being memorable, but he did. No
Dave Parker - No
Tim Raines - Yes
Kirk Reuter - Ha Ha. No
Benito Santiago - Benit-NO
Lee Smith- No.
BJ Surhoff - No
Alan Trammell - close, but no cigar. No
Except that Raines was just a jerk to reporters - his fellow players LOVED him from what I can gather.
38% of which came while playing for a perennial basement-dweller.
What the heck does that mean? How do personal stats run counter to winning? That damn Albert Pujols, he hit a 3-run home run when he could have just struck out like a team player instead of chasing stats.
Unless you’re constantly trying to steal third with two outs, I think that’s a ridiculous assertion to make of a baseball player.
Does this not make it even more impressive? Collecting saves for teams who don’t win games quite an accomplishment. Trevor Hoffman was also on a lot of bad teams, but he’s still a lock. Mariano Rivera, on the other hand, piled up saves for a team that gave him plenty of opportunities.
Not on its own, no. Rivera is better than Smith was at actually getting the save. He has a much higher save percentage, and Smith blew more saves even though Rivera has had more chances. Smith doesn’t get points for degree of difficulty because if he came into the game, his team obviously already had a chance to win. Rivera and Trevor Hoffman have always had similar save percentages (I think Hoffman was ahead of Rivera until this past season), but Rivera does better on other measurements.
Being on a better team doesn’t necessarily help the closer pick up save opportunities anyway: if your team wins too many games easily, the closer doesn’t get a chance for a save. When Francisco Rodriguez set the save record a few years ago, he wasn’t on a great team. He was on a good team that played a lot of close games and gave him a lot of chances to get saves.
So I’m iffy on Lee Smith at this point. I’d vote for Alomar, Martinez, Blyleven, Raines, and I think Bagwell.
You’re serious? Numerous examples can be listed by anyone who actually plays or watches an actual sport, such as stealing a base with your best batter up so he gets walked and a weaker hitter comes up, or swinging for the fences when you need to put the ball in play … I can’t believe I’m even answering that.
I was referring to Lofton. When a guy gets shuffled around as often as he was, either traded or nontendered or whatever, it’s a sign that he wears out his welcome pretty quickly - even if the reasons aren’t discussed publicly.
Barkis, I think you’re looking at some jaundice about inflated save numbers. They can come pretty cheaply, and lots of Smith’s were pretty damn cheap. Come in at the start of the ninth with a three-run lead, manage not to fuck that up, and you get one. Or if another guy lets a few in and the tying run reaches on-deck with two out, get a fly ball and you get a save.
Ah - that clears that up!
Yup - save chances don’t really decrease all that much by being on a shitty team.
I’ve generally been on the fence with Lee Smith; I’m not sure the various WAR/Win Shares systems properly differentiate between the help that a good defense would give him vs. the poor one he often found himself pitching behind-there’s so many arguably sound ways that you can split the credit that you can’t just point at one and say it’s the definitive system.
For example, he had a higher K/9 than Goose Gossage, but also a higher H/9 (when you would expect that to go down as K’s go up):
Smith K/9 H/9
8.7 7.9
Goose K/9 H/9
7.5 7.4
How much of that, exactly, is ballpark, their defenses, and their own ability? I don’t really know, and anybody who says they do probably doesn’t either. I suspect if you switched their teams, Smitty would come out looking significantly better (his ERA+ is 6 points better as it is, 132 to 126), and he would now have this reputation of being the deadly closer for the Yankees’ two championships, among other things. In other words even the adjusted ERA numbers we have probably aren’t the whole story, and if you switched them Smith might have a lead of like 140 to 120. Fangraphs oddly enough has his FIP ERA as 3.12, vs. his actual as 3.04, tho most of that happened in the last 6 years of his career (Goose’s FIP is 2 points higher).
Then again it could be argued that even elite closers, for the most part, can’t/don’t contribute to winning as much as starting pitchers do, in which case only Mariano Rivera deserves to be in there.
Snap judgment: Raines, Larkin and Lee Smith are all yes. There’s a couple more that I could be talked into but I need persuading.
Larry Walker – Career just wasn’t at HOF level, and his numbers were helped by Coors.
Roberto Alomar – Just short of HOF
Carlos Baerga – Great years, but not for an entire career
Jeff Bagwell – Borderline. Depends on who else is around.
Harold Baines – Doesn’t quite reach greatness
Bert Blyleven – Should get in. Great career.
Bret Boone – No. Just an above average player.
Kevin Brown – Just short. If it weren’t for injuries, he’d be in, but the injuries will keep him out.
John Franco – Good reliever, and I’d love to have a Met in the hall, but he falls just short.
Juan Gonzalez – Hard to say. Might be worth a vote.
Marquis Grissom – No.
Lenny Harris – Not unless Smokey Burgess is HOF material. A very undistinguished career other than as a pinch hitter.
Bobby Higginson – No. In here only because the Players Association requires it.
Charles Johnson – No.
Barry Larkin – I think so.
Al Leiter – Nothing more than a good pitcher, not a great one.
Edgar Martinez – If he weren’t a DH playing in Seattle, he’d be a lock. I don’t know if the voters will hold that against him.
Tino Martinez – No. Another name due to the PA.
Don Mattingly – Yes. It wasn’t his fault he didn’t play in a World Series.
Fred McGriff – Yes.
Mark McGwire – The old steroid thing. Keep him out for now.
Raul Mondesi – No.
Jack Morris – Very close. I think he’s deserving.
Dale Murphy – If this were for best five years, then yes. But his career went downhill and ultimately I’d leave him out.
John Olerud – Yes. One of the great hitters of his era.
Rafael Palmeiro – Should be in, but the steroids will stop it.
Dave Parker – Yes
Tim Raines – Borderline, but I’d say no.
Kirk Rueter – Who?
Benito Santiago – Not up to snuff
Lee Smith – Interesting case. Are saves enough? I don’t think so, especially since their value is being questioned more and more.
B.J. Surhoff – Not quite there.
Alan Trammell – Yes. One of the best shortstops of his time.