Eligible for the first time and my short comments.
Tim Raines - I don’t think he’d be in the running if he hadn’t played in New York. He’s the best of the first timers, but I don’t think he ever gets in. He will linger on the ballot for five years or so.
**David Justice ** - Gets the same Yankees boost as Raines, but no. Chuck Knoblauch - No, he and everyone else below are one and done. Brady Anderson - No, his one big year is highly suspect now as well.
**Rod Beck ** - No Shawon Dunston - No Chuck Finley - No Travis Fryman - No Robb Nen - No Jose Rijo - Interesting only in that he was eligible once before, but made a MLB roster the next year, after six years out. I don’t know if he is the first in this situation or not. Todd Stottlemyre - No.
Holdovers (vote %'s from 2007)
Goose Gossage (71.2%) - This is the year he gets in, deservedly. If somehow he doesn’t make it, he’s done with consideration.
**Andre Dawson (56.7) ** - I suspect this year he sees a big drop in support - just a hunch. Dawson and the next three are all deserving in my mind, but I don’t think any get in. Bert Blyleven (47.7) - My hunch is he sees increased support this year, and if he can hang around like Gossage did until another weak year, he just might make it. Lee Smith (39.8) - Not with Gossage going in. Sorry, Lee. Jack Morris 202 (37.1) - I’m not sure why he hasn’t gotten the support. I understand that his career numbers are a bit short, but he was the greatest starter of his time. He would get my vote, but won’t make it. Mark McGwire (23.5) - No, and I am now leaning to probably never. Tommy John (22.9) - The opposite of Jack Morris - Career numbers are strong, but his only “great” seasons were when he played for dominant teams. Dave Concepcion (13.6) - No Alan Trammell (13.4) - No Dave Parker (11.4) - No Don Mattingly (9.9) - No Dale Murphy (9.2) - No Harold Baines (5.3) - No
My ballot would be - Gossage, Dawson, Blyleven, Smith, Morris
I think Goose gets in (finally). I also think Raines has a better than average shot. He suffers a little by spending his career in Rickey’s shadow, but he was an exceptional lead-off hitter for a long period of time. Plus, I think he’ll get some bonus votes from writers as a reaction to the steroid issue, as Raines is a classic “old school” style player.
I think Dawson or Morris (but not both) gets in this year.
Very interesting - I agree with you that Raines is the top pick and shouldn’t get in. Justice was my favorite player as a kid, but I don’t think he belongs either. He should get a few votes for being on a long run of playoff teams, but not close to 75 percent.
So I guess this could become a year where the league clears its backlog. And you left off the guy who might be the most-debatable candidate: Jim Rice. I don’t know much about Rice, but I think he and Gossage get in this year.
It is a weak class. Of the first timers, Raines is the only one that even seems border line. Many All Star appearances and 5th all time for base stealing and I think 1 batting title. It is not enough for me.
**My only vote is for Gossage. **
I see Morris & Blyleven not quite being Hall of Famers, like Mattingly. They are all very good but not great enough.
I agree about Gossage. This is most likely his year to get in, considering the rest of the field. Most are great players, but as far as HOF numbers go, just borderline at best.
I disagree, however, with your assessment of Raines and Justice. I don’t see any “Yankees boost” here. They only played relatively briefly in NY after stellar careers in Montreal and Atlanta, respectively. Of the two, Raines probably has the best outside chance to be inducted, but not for at least 2 years, IMHO.
You’re probably right about Mattingly, unfortunately. One of the best “pure hitters” to ever play the game, but when you wear the pinstripes, people expect more than that. His numbers compare favorably with Robin Yount and Paul Molitor, who are both in, but they didn’t have to compete with the team history Mattingly does. Yankees=sluggers, especially in the long-ball era.
My ballot would include Gossage, Trammell and Blyleven for sure… I’m leaning toward including Raines, but I admit being a bit biased since he was one of my favorite players. He’s probably not ever going to make it, however.
I don’t know how I missed Jim Rice. In my opinion, Andre Dawson was a better player, but languished in obscurity in Montreal for the best years of his career. Rice was in Boston his whole career (5 years shorter than Dawson’s) and will benefit from that exposure and the Green Monster. I’d put Rice in the same group with Morris, Blyleven, Smith, and Dawson. I wouldn’t bet on any of them to make it, but I wouldn’t be disappointed if any of them did.
Jim - no homer vote for Donnie Baseball? I don’t keep up on stats to know how close he his from that perspective, but he sure is a hero to fans of the pinstripes…
I think Raines deserves it. Far from getting a boost from where he played, his Montreal years are dragging him down with how invisible he was to the country at large.
I am a fan of Donnie, but not blinded, his peak career was sadly too short. As I mentioned, I don’t think Morris is worthy either or even Raines.
Gossage really is one of the best closers in the history of the game and is long overdue for getting the recognition he deserves. I don’t think I am being a homer with this vote. I would take him as a top 5 closer all time. I think that should qualify.
Rice is someone who someone who I feared and respected as a Yankee fan, I won’t be upset if he makes it, but he is probably not great enough. Posters like **Rickjay ** will dismiss the anecdotal evidence of how clutch he was and I cannot vote him in on his numbers alone.
Tim Raines - the second best leadoff man and SB threat of his generation, behind Ricky. I vote yes.
David Justice - A great hitter but tossed away Halle Berry so he isn’t too bright.
Chuck Knoblauch - No
Brady Anderson - No,
Rod Beck - RIP, No
Shawon Dunston - No
Chuck Finley - No
Travis Fryman - No
Robb Nen - No
Jose Rijo - No
Todd Stottlemyre - No.
Holdovers
Goose Gossage - Yes
Andre Dawson - Yes
Bert Blyleven - Yes
Lee Smith - No
Jack Morris - The best AL starter during the 80s and hero of two World Series champs. I vote yes.
Mark McGwire - No, not this year.
Tommy John - No
Dave Concepcion - Yes
Alan Trammell - No
Dave Parker- No
Don Mattingly- No
Dale Murphy - No
Harold Baines - No
Hall-of-Fame and MVP voting, IMO, are two of the few times clutch performances should count for something.
To take an extreme example, Carlton Fisk was a great defensive catcher and 11-time All-star who hit .269 and 376 HR for his career, swept the 1972 AL rookie of the year and had two seasons where he was one of the top five in MVP balloting. But as decent as those stats are, everyone knows the main reason why he was elected; hell, it takes up more than half his Cooperstown plaque .
I am a Mattingly fan, but comparing a first-baseman’s offensive numbers to the numbers of a couple of extremely versatile multi-position players like Yount and Molitor is not valid, IMHO.
Also, Yount and Molitor both ended up with over 3000 hits and Mattingly didn’t even come that close.
For about five years, Mattingly put up Dimaggio-like offensive numbers before injuries sharply curtailed his productivity and prematurely ended his career. I’m afraid he belongs in the HOFBF (Hall Of Fame But For…) category of players (see also Tony Oliva).
Jim Rice is also another player who would’ve made the HOF were it not for the fact his productivity dropped sharply in his last few seasons. The same is true with Dale Murphy. As a result, both are borderline choices at best.
As for some of the others, Gossage deserves to go in because he was a superlative closer in crucial games over a long period of time. That, I think, is the main factor in determining whether a relief pitcher belongs in the HOF. And, to go against the grain a bit, I’d pick Alan Trammell and Jack Morris.
Some of you may be familiar with this site, but baseball-reference.com has an interesting statistical method for judging HOF candidacy. Raines’ falls short according to them, but they are just measuring batting, not fielding or base-stealing. I remember Raines and Morris as being two of the very best players of the 80s. I would vote for both of them.
As much as I admire Mattingly I agree he falls just short.
Also, Gossage and Blyleven should get in easily, IMO.
Brady Anderson? Seriously? I mean honestly, does everybody who retires get on the list? If there was a hall of mediocre I’d say yes!
I’m always surprised at the lack of support for Don Mattingly but I have to agree that his career was a little too short (you hear that Bill Walton?).
Of the new guys, Tim Raines is the closest. 808 SB is pretty good but nah. Another member of the hall of very good.
I’m not a big enough expert at the stats of current hall members but Dawson just doesn’t quite do it for me. He’s the closest to the yes of anybody for me.
I’m okay with Gossage going if somebody has to. His adjusted ERA + is pretty decent.
Regarding Big Mac, the steroids are an instant no for me mostly because he didn’t have a lot else going for him other than the long ball.
Blyleven has to be a no but he’s pretty close. If he got in, I’d be fine.
If they played 10 years, yes.
Gossage, Rice, Morris, Murphy. Not Mac; let the Mitchell report come out first so we can put the 'roid thing in better perspective.
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