As of now it looks like Ohio is the best bellwether state in the country. They have picked the president correctly every single time since 1972 (or earlier, perhaps? I only looked back that far).
But I was just wondering if anyone was aware of any states or other smaller regions (voting districts, counties, cities) that make very good anti-bellwethers for presidential elections in the United States, that is, that they have a very good track record of going to the losing candidate.
I’ve done a little bit of research and it looks like Minnesota has only gotten the president right 4 times since 1972, a pretty bad job but not really “anti-bellwether” quality.
Is there anywhere else you can think of that has always gone the opposite way of the rest of the country?
Bellwethers are easily explained: they are states near the “red-blue divide”, so when there’s an overall blue tilt, they go blue and vice versa. “Anti-bellwethers” make much less sense.
Another trivia question with an interesting answer is: Which state(s) produce the most lop-sided votes in Presidential elections and which Party does it vote for?
The answer, IIRC, is Mississippi (with Miss. geographical neighbors also “scoring high”). Interesting is the answer to the subquestion: Mississippi gave the Demos overwhelming majorities before the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and gave the GOP overwhelming majorities afterward.
I agree. They couldn’t be hard core DEM or REP counties because they would bounce back and forth with the winner of each election. An “anti-bellwether” county would have to be very much similar to a bellwether county but just by random chance have the dumb luck (or unluck) to be on the losing side every time.
If I had to guess, I would pick Boone County, WV as a nominee. McCain in 08, Kerry in 04, Gore 2000, but Clinton in 96, and 92. Dukakis in 88, Mondale in 84, Carter in 80, but Carter in 76 and McGovern in 72.