The Biden Administration - the first 1,500 days [NOT an Afghanistan discussion]

I reject your assumptions. Conservatives have been wrong about economic policy for decades. I see no reason to believe that they’re suddenly correct.

Republican whining about spending and deficits is meaningless noise, just like it’s always been. They’ve never actually cared, except as it can be used as a political weapon. It can and should be ignored.

The idea that you should judge people not by how they say they treat people but by how they actually treat people is a fairly common trope, and using waitstaff as an example is equally common.

I’m guessing Biden (or his speechwriter) didn’t remember an incident (albeit a reprehensible one) that happened 36 years ago.

Modnotes:

Not appropriate to P&E. This is pretty much attacking the poster.

Please report it next time.

What is this acronym in this case?

DO NOT ACCUSE other posters of lying. Do it again and it will be a warning.


So this thread is again a mess, please self-police yourselves or I will close it.

I’m assuming “WoT” = “wall of text”.

The ability to edit your memory to the point where you don’t recall a sordid and notorious incident of sexual harassment has to be called impressive.

“Notorious”, you say. I certainly don’t remember it. It obviously happened and was definitely sordid and inexcusable, but it wasn’t exactly 9/11. Insinuate all you like, but forgetting an incident from 36 years ago doesn’t require one to “edit their memory”.

I suspect you haven’t been close friends with Chris Dodd for many years; Biden has.

Again, the inflation is more supply-side inflation. There is still a demand side to this, but that’s not a bad thing – it means that people have money to spend. That demand is also due to forces that are beyond the power of central banks to control or predict.

You can’t forecast inflation out that far, Sam; your forecasts for inflation don’t work the way you think they do.

Tax revenue comes from increased rates, increased economic activity, and enforcement. It’s possible to generate more revenue in any of these three ways.

And I’ve responded before that this is an excellent justification for soaking the rich and cutting taxes on the middle class. It makes no difference in your view, so let’s give the middle class a tax cut. What’s not to like?

A post was merged into an existing topic: RangerLoops troll posts

If we were to raise interest rates or cut off further stimulus, we’d still have a short-term inflation problem because the supply chain is still broken and the demand for energy - something we all use - has outstripped the supply, which is another pandemic-induced problem. It’s cost-push inflation we’re dealing with here, not demand-pull.

We are seeing every form of inflation. Cost-Push, Demand-Pull, monetary expansion… A perfect storm. I agree with you about the cost-push effects of the supply chain issue, but the labor shortage is a demand-pull effect (increased demand driving up prices of labor) AND cost-push (higher labor costs are inflationary), and the expansion of the money supply a factor that is there but hard to quantify at this time because all the other inflationary factors muddy the data.

The Biden economic plan makes ALL of them worse. It will be paid for in part by printing money, the additional taxes and regulations will add to cost-push, the infrastructure plans will add to both cost-push and demand-pull, and the ‘green’ plans will drive up the cost of energy more.

How could the Biden economic plan be making all of these things worse when none of it has even passed yet? I’ve been hearing righties scream and wail about anything and everything any Democrat proposes for all of my life. The boy who cried wolf ends up with nobody listening to him. None of the doom and gloom that was predicted has ever come to pass, so this is why nobody takes these alarmist wails seriously anymore.

WHY do think raising tax rates doesn’t translate into a lot more revenue? You’re basically saying ‘no harm, no foul’. If higher tax rates actually don’t raise more revenue, there’s no harm in trying, right?

But the reasons they don’t raise revenue include:

  1. A shift in capital from its most efficient use to one that optimizes for reduced taxes. I.e, tax avoidance

  2. An increase in deadweight losses due to taxation.

  3. A reduction in real GDP, meaning higher rates on lower aggregate income

  4. Passing on costs to consumers, lowering demand.

  5. A reduction in business startup and entrepreneurial activity

  6. Shift of resources and industries to lower tax jurisdictions. This is why Janet Yellen is trying to push for a minimum global corporate tax. Without it, higher corporate taxes will cause capital flight.

  7. Raising taxes will raise the price of domestic goods, which will hurt the country’s ability to compete in world markets.

If tax rates are raised but tax revenue doesn’t change, some combination of the above factors must be in play. That’s not a good thing.

If you want to raise tax revenues above the 21% of GDP level, you’ll have to take a page from the other countries that manage it, and institute a national sales tax. If you want European level services, a VAT of 17%-27% would do it, if you don’t also mind massive deficits.

But politicians on your side never go there, because they know that in America it’s political suicide to suggest it. So they maintain the fiction that you can pay for European-style social services without increasing taxes on the poor and middle class, even though raising that revenue with taxes on the rich has never worked.

The vast majority of expenses that are contained in the BBB bill have nothing to do with direct cash transfer payments.

The BBB starts with tax credits and cuts for families who have children – I can’t remember the last time I remember a fiscal conservative arguing against tax cuts on the basis that they might spark inflation. so I fail to see how that’s going to contribute, so that’s a new one.

It also includes tax breaks for electric vehicles and other environment-related measures. There’s now global consensus that something needs to be done about climate change – you don’t nickel and dime where the environment or mother nature is concerned. If you know that a hurricane or a tsunami is going to wipe your town off the map sometime in the next 10-20 years, you build a seawall and don’t quibble over the cost.

The other items include investments in affordable housing, free or low-cost pre-schooling, free community college, and 12 weeks of paid family leave, which would probably more so to mid- to large-size companies. I suppose the expanded FMLA is cash transfer payment but it’s temporary and qualified. It also protects workers and keeps the jobs market stable, which is a positive thing for the economy.

As others have pointed out, this is being spread out over years, so it’s not like this is going to be all out once. Inflationary pressures will likely be resolved well before the bulk of the money is spent.

I don’t see this bill as an inflationary problem, though it certainly has long term implications on the national debt and the servicing thereof. However, there again, this is not really an economic problem we’re talking about; it’s a political problem, in the sense that Democrats will increase spending but Republicans will almost certainly find ways to avoid paying for it.

The political problem is Republicans. Sorry, Sam, but I can’t take protests over the growing debt seriously when the party protesting is the same one that requested debt ceiling increases when they were in power, and when they offered the largest tax cuts in a generation without offering to cut anything except the Affordable Healthcare Act, which Americans overwhelmingly supported.

To the annoyance of many ‘on my side,’ I’ve repeatedly pointed out that, yes, indeed we do have a potentially fatal crisis, but that crisis is political, not economic. Unfortunately, political crises inevitably become economic crises at some point. I don’t agree with every single thing that’s in the social infrastructure bill – I’d rather pay for trade school and apprenticeships than community college for all, but whatever. Democrats are acting in good faith; the Republicans are simply trying to obstruct and create chaos, and they are shamefully taking advantage of a broken supply chain to make dishonest arguments about inflation knowing damn well that much of the cash that’s been handed out over the past 18 months has been doled out by the previous president.

And if they’re gonna complain about the supply chain I’d point out that, frankly, they helped create with their "I ain’t wearin’ no damn mask and takin’ no shot neither’ horse shit, considering that much of the supply chain problem is on the American side of the pacific, not the Asian side. Specifically the ports of LA and Long Beach, and the deficit of truckers.

Dogma. We’ve had higher tax rates at the upper end and superb growth in the past. Then we cut taxes over and over and had sub par growth for decades. Let’s do what works, and the old way worked fine.

I said we should cut taxes on the middle class. I said nothing about raising revenue. Your reply is a straw man.

Looks like a deal will be passed imminently.

Biden met with a group of the progressive caucus and hosted Manchin and Sinema too for two hours at the White House. Both progressives and moderates seem to be happy with the meeting. Reported on CNN is that free community college is out which is a disappointment but can be pursued later. The bill will come at about $2 trillion. Higher than where Manchin was going for but a cut from what was proposed at the start (which in a way was already a compromise to do a bipartisan bill first).

Rep. Khanna has revealed Biden told the group he wants this to be brought to his desk to sign before he goes to the UN Climate conference next week because he wants to bring something forward to the conference as US credibility on the issue of tackling climate change. Manchin has also said the bill can be passed as early as the end of this week so hopefully now things get a move on.

Next he’s got to make the priority getting the Voting Rights Act bill passed. Some will argue that should have come first anyway.

Sky News Australia: “‘Let’s go Brandon’: Anti-Biden chants go global”

Sky News Australia: “Anti-Biden chants continue as ‘Let’s go Brandon’ rap hits no.1 on iTunes”

Biden Derangement Syndrome

That was a hell of a cringe watch. Most normal people will see he is on the verge of a major infrastructure deal that will rebuild public works, revitalize communities, and create jobs - including to those who don’t like him. If you want to stick to childish chants you do you.