The blame for the economic downturn

This isn’t a debate about whether we’re in a recession or not, but nobody rational can deny that we’re in an economic downturn. What factors or people or legislation do you most blame for this (assuming you don’t think it’s cyclical)?

To what extent do you blame lowered taxes plus wartime spending (if at all)? Or on what do you blame the insanity of giving everything that stood still a housing loan (a disaster even I could see coming and I’ve no business education or acumen)? Do you fault job exporting or illegal workers at all? Any wildcard factors?

Job exporting and illegal workers are not the problem, because the unemployment rate is not exceptionally high.

The government is broke, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the economy is bad. Bush didn’t kill the American economy by going to war, he just killed the effectiveness of the government.

The number one problem for the economy was the subprime mortgage rush, which inflated the price of housing to incredible levels.

The number one issue is lack of savings and indebtedness. The average American has a very low net savings rate (low savings, high personal debt including credit cards and mortgage, low mortgage savings), the government is running quite a large deficit, and somehow people think the economy should go great. American’s have been living beyond their means and now the price will be paid.

The sub prime is only one indicator of this living beyond the means.

A combination of the subprime mortgage fiasco and rising energy costs are the primary reasons for the current economic downturn. Banks were hit hard by the subprime stuff so they aren’t lending money that is needed for businesses to grow or for people to buy homes. Meanwhile rising energy costs are threatening to raise inflation.
Long term, I believe we are becoming a nation of entitled retards. Everyone thinks they deserve a millionare lifestyle but most just want it handed to them. Starting with Wall Street in the 80s, the Dot-Coms in the 90s and continuing into today, we have slowly become an economy of bankers, lawyers, consultants, PR spin doctors, entertainers and salesmen. One wonders how long an economy can continue producing nothing but vaporware, advice and synergy.

Book name!

The me first fuck everyone else I want it for me now whether I can afford it or not attitude that permeates American society.

I do not believe this is just another economic downturn. I believe this is part of a long-term fundamental fracturing of the American capitalist economy. In other words, in the words of Edward Abbey, “Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.”

It has finally metastasized and we are at Stage IV.

The auto companies were instrumental in the creation of the middle class. Since they are shipping manufacturing abroad to get cheaper wages and no environmental issues, they have dismantled a large part of their customer base. Short term thinking has led to this mess.
This is a fundamental restructuring of the American economy. Wages are going to be smaller. Unemployment is going to be at a much higher level than was previously accepted. It will be a more dangerous time . The wealthy will love it. At least the ones that feel no responsibility to the country will.

This is going to sound bad, and it’s an offshoot of what Duckster was saying, but it’s a lot of the pressure from The American Dream. We’re supposed to be consumers, spend, and also own a home. People spend outside their means and things turn sour. I think that when the spending curbs itself to more normal levels (as a whole), we’ll be seeing relatively moderate growth at that time. Killing off the middle class (if you buy the argument that the middle class is being killed off) also puts stress on the system because they’re supposed to be the big consumers.

In support of this, there were threads a few years ago in which people wondered how the WalMarts of the economy expected people to buy their goods when they paid them barely enough to live on. Now we know. They borrowed and borrowed and borrowed against their rising home equity. When it stopped rising, the system crashed.

The only solutions are to either stop marketing crap people don’t need (unlikely) or paying a living wage, accepting that prices on goods will go up, but that more people will be able to have money left over after the basics to buy them without getting into debt.

Ten years or so ago, when the jobs were first being shipped abroad, there was a discussion about whether outsourcing would result in American wages dropping. Not much argument anymore. If they can do it cheaper to make short term profits ,they will. Who can afford to buy houses and cars. Doesn’t matter ,if you can kill the unions and drop wages.

Repeal of Glass-Steagal

The first 5 paragraphs should spell it out from 1989

Far from being a fault of capitalism, this is largely the fault of government. Huge deficit spending, promoting the idea that we are all ‘entitled’ to a comfortable living, federal loan guarantees that reduce the risk of banks to lend money, government bailouts and subsidies of stupid plans and high risk ventures. Bankruptcy laws that give bad behaviour a fair bit of protection. Safety net programs which reduce the potential downside of economic disaster. Guaranteed pensions and social security which eliminate the need to save, and in some cases punish it.

The list goes on. The government screwed the pooch with the Savings and Loan industry in the 1980’s, gave them so many protections that they kicked off the largest con in history, and then bailed out the people who invested in them, thus removing any penalties they might have suffered for making high-risk investments in S&Ls instead of safe blue-chip or bond holdings.

And you wonder why people are overextending themselves and not saving money?

Then governments make it worse by doing the same stupid thing they are doing right now - they throw money at the problem, often in areas which do no good at all as a stimulus, because they just see the recession as an opportunity to buy votes and the money get sprayed willy-nilly to the people who have the most political clout.

And they tend to get out of phase with their Keynesian pumps. For instance, it now looks to me that George Bush’s tax cuts and ‘stimulus’ took effect just as the economy was starting a recovery anyway. So instead of acting as an anti-cyclic reinvestment to smooth the business cycle, it becomes positive reinforcement. So you get a boom, high profits, speculation, and all the nastiness of an overheated economy. Which makes the next collapse worse, and the government in even more debt. Once they lose the option to borrow more to keep the whole scheme afloat, you’ll have a REAL crash. Maybe not Argentina-bad, but maybe 1970’s bad - double digit inflation and interest rates, 10% unemployment.

Business is far better capable of handling the fluctuations of the market than is the government. My company has been warning us of slowdowns coming up for at least three quarters now. The market is already adjusting to this. Production will ease, spending will be re-prioritized in firms across the country. Belts will be tightened. There will be some pain - layoffs, projects canceled, non-performing business units sold off or shut down. That’s why it’s called a recession. But it’s necessary. You have to correct the imbalances.

Government does not seek to do that. It makes the problem worse by throwing money at the economy, which just reduces the incentive to do the hard things that must be done. People learn they don’t have to save for a rainy day, because if hard times come the government checks will flow.

The clowns in Washington are about to throw 210 billion dollars of borrowed money at the economy as a ‘stimulus’. But after the House and Senate managed to knead the billy like taffy to get their pork and political favors into it, everyone from disabled veterans to seniors get a payout. Yes, giving seniors money is sure going to stimulate the economy, huh? The only thing it’s going to stimulate is their bank accounts, because they’re not going to spend it. And disabled veterans? Wha? Look, I like to help disabled vets too, but how in hell could you possibly call this a ‘stimulus’ package? What is there about disabled vets that gives you a better stimulus bang for your buck than say, giving it to young families or providing investment tax credits and subsidies? Or even by providing things like job retraining services if the unemployment rate starts to increase?

Anyone who thinks government can operate efficiently should have a good look at this ‘stimulus’ package. They would have done about as much good had they just thrown darts on a map and dropped a helicopter load of cash at each location. They make things worse, not better.

Huge government spending =defense spending.

Debt and unsustainable spending: the United States spends more money on defense than all other nations combined. It’s hard to sustain a trillion dollar defense budget with a nine trillion dollar debt.
The loss of jobs and refusal to shift a greater tax burden to the wealthiest Americans coupled with wasteful military spending at the expense of investment in long term social health has produced nothing but large numbers of poor, sick, undereducated people with no money to spend in a consumer driven economy.

The economic downturn clearly stems from our willingness to war against liberty.
The solution is simple.
Do not prohibit liberty.
Regulate and tax only as necessary.
Do not punish sin as crime.
Secure liberty and justice for all.

Is it not at least worth a try?

ItS
Peace
r~

This provides an example of what I am talking about. An apeal to patriotism is the last refuge of an incompetant business. For decades the auto and steel and other industries refused to modernize or innovate while their unions continued to demand greater and greater wages for employees. Eventually they just couldn’t compete. Talk about short term thinking.

So what is your solution? I don’t know any economists who believe protectionism is the answer.

People's Action | Join our joyous rebellion. Ben from Ben and Jerrys take on the defense spending.

Etc. So what happened to all your equally-positive posts of earlier times about how foolish we all were for not seeing the benefit of Bush’s tax cuts, how his economic policies were providing permanent prosperity, how the recession of his early administration was all Clinton’s fault and Clinton’s surplus-fed boom was due to Reagan’s tax cuts … the *rest * of us haven’t forgotten. :rolleyes:

So what happened to change your mind?

This economic crisis is not an accident. Going into Iraq while cutting taxes was a deliberate event. If you can break the government ,get it to a manageable size and flush it down the toilet, then all programs will have to be slashed. They could not vote medicare ,and Social Security away. It was political poison. But making it impossible to fund was a backdoor way to kill all programs that don’t benefit corporations and the wealthy. There is risk to the country in trying to kill the school systems, unemployment etc. But ,they felt comfortable enough to do it. The ramifications of this selfish ,selfserving plan is yet to be felt. It will be felt acutely by the poor and middle class.
The combination of outsourcing ,corporate tax shielding and avoidance, and a huge defense program will bankrupt the country. The rich will benefit because they have had 8 years to steal to their hearts content. This economic sham of the last 8 years is merely growing . This so called boom time was not spread through the whole system. Many lost jobs and houses while the papers touted the good times. Hopefully the people know better.

What the shit are you going on about? Is it your implication that the wealthy have somehow conspired to destroy our education system and eliminate all low to middle class jobs because it somehow benefits them?
Maybe you should get your economic information from someone who doesn’t make ice cream for a living.