But this has nothing to do with the federal Liberals. Quebec has adamantly refused to have any federal involvement in student loans in the province other than the feds handing over the money that would have been spent for the provincial government to hand out instead. How the loan system is run is entirely up to the province. If you were a resident of another province, however, any new federal student loan would, since mid-2000, be delivered and administered directly by the federal government and its agents, with no involvement by the banks at all. (The banks continued to handle the paperwork for the first few months of the new regime, but the loans were no longer bank loans.)
Originally Posted by RickJay
This describes my opinion almost exactly. The Liberals have been reasonable stewards of the Canadian economy (although their treatment of the military has been shameful), but in the last few years they’ve really shown signs of an arrogance that comes from being an almost one-party state. Simply put, there have been few checks and balances on the Liberals, because their opposition self-destructed so badly, and the result has been abuse of power.
I’m not convinced that the Conservatives are ready for primetime, but then I don’t think they’ll get elected, either. So might as well help them gain as much as they can, so that they can be a more effective counterbalance.
However, it might be too soon to write the Conservatives off, because they are climbing in the polls quite rapidly. They are almost in a statistical tie with the Liberals right now, and the Liberals are going down and the Conservatives up. This may yet be a close election.
Incidentally, I wouldn’t worry about Alberta trying to rape the East. Maybe Easterners think we’re out for payback or something, but the fact is Albertans are actually pretty easygoing when it comes to this stuff. We’ve been paying $3500 per person per year in equalization payments, and it’s not even an issue here. We don’t have provincial politicians running on a platform of ending equalization payments, because Albertans really don’t mind paying them.
But what gets to us is when we’re treated with derision, and when the scales get too unfairly tilted toward the east. The NEP is a good example of that. That really touched a nerve with Albertans, because it felt unjust. But Alberta doesn’t want to rip off the East - we’re doing just fine. We might want a little more autonomy, though.
i think this election will break down something like:
bc (36 seats) : 12-17 con 12-17 ndp 6-8 lib
alta (28 seats): 24-25 con 2-3 lib 0-1 ndp
sask (14 seats): 4-6 ndp 4-6 con 3-4 lib
man (14 seats): 4-6 ndp 4-6 con 3-4 lib
on (106 seats): 54-70 lib 15-25 con 16-26 ndp
que (75 seats): 50-60 bq 15-25 lib 0-1 ndp 0-1 con
nb (10 seats): 4-5 lib 3-4 con 2-3 ndp
ns (11 seats): 2-4 con 3-4 ndp 2-4 lib
nfld (7 seats): 3-4 con 3-4 lib 0-1 ndp
pei (4 seats): 3-4 lib 0-1 con 0-1 ndp
yt (1 seat): 1 lib
nwt (1 seat): 0-1 lib 0-1 ndp
nt (1 seat): 0-1 lib 0-1 ndp
total (308 seats): 67-93 con 50-60 bq 41-68 ndp 96-134 lib
of course, this is a completely non-scientific guess based partly on recent polling trends, people i’ve talked to across the country, and maybe even some wishful thinking regarding some of the closer races. (note - b.c is a complete wag on my part; all three parties are polling close to the margin of error from each other but ndp and cons both have areas of concentrated support which means more seats. gotta love fptp. also the seat ranges in ontario are left wider because of a high undecided rate, and in quebec because of a bunch of close races between lib &bq.)
i don’t see the conservatives moving much beyond the old alliance base - and most of the ontario gains will be offset by losses in b.c. they are going nowhere in quebec, and the atlantic provinces don’t have enough seats for any breakthrough to amount to much overall. likely result: official opposition, though they may drop to third party in the house if harper can’t convince enough ontarians his party is more than just the old reformatory alliance with a new bowl for haircut day.
the liberals will lose seats to the bloc in quebec, the question is only how many. and they will get thumped in ontario. no gains to be made anywhere, really. maybe a couple of former pc seats in the maritimes, and a former alliance seat here or there in the west, but then those really wouldn’t be gains, would they? likely result: minority government; will swallow pride and make concessions to ndp in return for support (no official coalition)
ndp to pick up seats in every region - except quebec (well, pierre ducasse might win but that’s an outside shot at best, and the only one in the province) 1988-like numbers at a minimum, but probably more. layton is a great speaker, knows the issues inside & out, and will win over a bunch of middle income votes, especially after the tv debates, imho. likely result: kingmaker; darkhorse for official opposition.
bloc to improve seat total at the expense of liberals, but unlikely to sweep province as quebec sovereignty not a major issue right now. likely result: third or fourth party in house; unlikely to prop up a minority or form official opposition.
i could also mention the greens, but that would be an entire column of zeros, and i don’t believe they are even going to be a factor in any riding, though they might make a few close ridings on the lower mainland of bc just a little closer.
also, a few strong independents are running, but i doubt any will win a seat. some may cause vote splits that allow others to come up the middle (i’m thinking of ridings like davenport in toronto, where caccia may split with silva, alowing rui peres to come up the middle)
i’ll be putting my buck seventy five with the ndp, but my riding (york west, incumbant judy sgro, lib) will go liberal. probably the safest liberal seat in ontario, if not the country. last few elections in this riding (fed & prov) have been like 70-75% liberal… though the margin will be a little smaller this time, it would probably take no liberal contesting if the seat were to change hands.
hey Fubar – great screen name. 
Where are you from?
originally from london (no, the other london) now living in the centre of the universe™
I am sorry if this comes across as snide but … Ya Think?! Why would you even have this concern? Did you worry about the “looting” that was going on before hand, or is it that familiar looting is more comforting?
Ok, more calmly now, why do you/did you feel this way? I’ve noticed it a fair bit in Ontario but I’ve never understood it.
Look, again should the Conservatives win they will be dominated by Ontario members. From your post it seems you feel that Ontario residents have a more progressive outlook on social policy. So it follows that those residents that run for the Tories are likely to be “mellower” than their firebrand western co-workers. You don’t see that as having any influence on party policy?
Personally I’m fed up with the thuggish displays of power by the Liberals. I’m tired of the labeling of non-Liberals as “un-Canadian” (as if there was such a thing). I’m tired of money sluicing from my pocket into Liberal coffers or half thought out social policies that do little more than make people feel good about spending money (Gun registry, HRDC, Flag selling etc). I’m tired of watching opposing views relegated to “extreme fringe groups” when they are nothing of the sort. I’m tired of being told that my level of compassion should be tied to my income tax bracket. It’s not. I’m tired of difficult policy choices being dealt with by vote of confidence and the SC rather than ruthlessly debated in the House.
I’d also like a pony.
Yes, I think. Maybe it has something to do with the fact that on several message boards I frequent, Albertans are openly gloating about payback for the NEP and other remembered abuses.
I really don’t care about what happened in the '70s and '80s. Why should I? And why, in the name of all that is holy, should I vote for a party in which many participants evidently do - and intend (if their grassroots cheerleaders are any indication) intend to take it out on me and my taxes?
Phrases like:
Make me think that my concern was not misplaced, that the '70s and '80s issues are still alive in people’s minds, and that voting Conservative would be foolish from the POV of self-interest.
In spite of the fact that I said the exact opposite?
Well, I agree with much of that. Particularly the pony.
My biggest concern with the Conservative party, and I think a concern for many East of Saskatchewan is that the new party is really the Alliance/Reform party under a new name. The merger with the PC party looked like nothing less than a swallowing of competition on the right. Hell, the Old Alliance leader became the leader of the new Conservative party giving them little more than a look of Alliance mark II.
I have little faith in the party to actually have the people to form a decent cabinet if they should win the election. I mean seriously which members have the experience or skills to fill the key cabinet positions. I’d love to see the wish list of those who do support the Conservatives.
Also when you have Conservative members hinting that they would unofficially court with the Bloc Quebecquois in a minority governement situation it gives me the heebee jeebies.
Also the wingnut faction hasn’t totally disapeared from the party. you still have those who claim they want to reopen issues like abortion, and language laws. Sounds great out West, I suppose, but I mean really if the Conservatives are indeed a National party they have to increase their scope to look at National issues and realities.
Now in saying that I loathe the idea of the Liberals getting another term in office. Martin is no different than Chretien in that his sole purpose to become Prime minister seems to be… to become Prime Minister. I see now vision for this country and his back room machinations in getting back at the old Chretienites smacks of a petty tin pot dictator. I think Mr Martin is no different than Former PM John Turner. I hope his fate is the same.
The Liberal party needs a good thumping so that they can clean house and bring in fresh and dynamic leadership. They are now a bloated arrogant and courrupt party and need a good thrashing to humble them a little.
So where does that leave me? The NDP? I liked Jack Layton until he started opening his mouth. I knew him as a Toronto councillor and he sometimes went to far. As an MP he’s fine, as a leader forget it.
Now I have to sit there and make a choice and I have no love for any of the candiates. I hate this 
Shit, there are so many of us in the same boat it is tempting to form a new party!
Indeed. We could call it the “Fuck Them Party”, since FTP is a pretty good acronym for sound-bites. I would propose the platform to be “Fuck Themtm, how much money do we have, and how much do things cost? Let’s take the most centralized issue on everything, and just go with it.” If people wouldn’t be happy with that, then our society is hopeless.
From what I’ve read in the past few posts, it seems clear to me that a party needs Ontario to get enough seats, especially if the Bloc take back their Quebec seats.
So now that we’ve moved our focus away from the NDP, my question is–can the Conservatives (or Reform Party 3.0) win both Alberta AND Ontario. More importantly, are they willing to sacrifice Alberta to pick up seats east of the Prairies?
Since the last set of polls, I’ve begun to wonder two things. 1.) Will hatred of the Corrupt Liberals cause simple vote splitting between the NDP and Conservatives? And 2.) has all this success gone straight to Harper’s head? I’ve been watching his latest speeches, particularly in Toronto, and I get the distinct impression that he’s doing everything in his power to turn away the liberal vote.
We have an election where voters actually hate the current party and are desperate to give their vote to someone else (as mentioned several times in previous posts). My current analysis is that both the Conservatives and NDP f*cked up but not staying close to centre. Both parties have ran as far to their extremes as possible, and are losing too many of the undecided vote. Their arrogance will give the Liberals another majority.
I doubt that Ontario will go solid red. Most of us are Pissed at the Provincial Liberal’s latest budget and are going to sacrifice the Ferderal Liberal’s to appease our anger.
kingpengvin, I’m sorry, but that is the dumbest thing I have ever heard. If you are pissed at the provincial party, take it out ON THE PROVINCIAL PARTY! Our constitution divides responsibilities between the Federal and the Provincial branches, its time we recognized that and applied blame where blame is due. Don’t stick the rest of the county with a less than viable government because you were duped last year.
I only wish that the last Ontario election could be used as a teaching tool for the rest of the world, which is why I started this thread a few months ago:
Politicians should be held to their promises.
It was such a perfect case of a politician telling us exactly what we wanted to hear, and completely ignoring the fact that he couldn’t pay for it. There are too many people that are voting exactly the way you are, because they are mad at the Ontario Liberals and not at themselves. McGuinty was told, flat out, that he could not afford his promises, he was told repeatedly, and then acted shocked when he saw that he couldn’t.
You are right to be pissed off, but please learn from this. Harper and Layton are loading up their agendas with big ticket spending. Harper wants all sorts of tax cuts, Layton wants all kinds of weird and wacky spending. Those promises come at a cost, and its time voters woke up and realized that.
Harper is going to cut services, Layton is going to raise taxes. If you vote in either of those guys you had better not be surprised when you wake up in 6 months to find out that Harper is including one of your services, or Layton’s definition of taxing the rich starts at $80K a year and not $200K…
I have generally voted Liberal in federal elections, as the general philosophy of the party usually is the best fit to my own. I have voted NDP once, and Rhino a couple of times when I felt that it was time for the Grits to have a short, sharp boot in the ass to remind them what they were there for. I thought seriously at one point about voting for the Tories under Joe Clark I, but eventually decided against it.
My feeling in the current election is that it’s very much boot in the ass time again, and I don’t really want to give the Liberals my vote (especially as Martin has dumped Manley as my MP in favour of David McGuinty :mad: ). But now who do I vote for?
I agree with a few of the new Regressive Conservative policies, but generally find the party to be… well, regressive, with a strong underlying religious fundamentalist and “we hate the East” feel that repels me. I feel that the NDP has some good ideas, but again there is an underlying ivory tower, head in the clouds feel that I don’t like. Both parties also seem to lack many real cabinet-level candidates. The BQ will never be any more than a regional fringe party due to their basic raison d’être, and the Greens are still a fringe party, also. (The environmental issues of the Greens may enjoy widespread support, but support for them as a single-issue governing party is almost non-existant.)
The Rhino Party (my previous first choice as a “None of the above” vote) is no more, crippled by the move of the party leader to San Diego, and now I can’t even vote Natural Law. I may not vote at all, for the first time since I became old enough to do so.
Ok folks the first debate is coming up tonight. I need to check, but I think it is the French language debate with the 4 major parties (no Greens).
Anyone (Quebecers especially) have any views on how this will go? All I can see is that the Bloq are likely to pick up a few votes, the Conservatives have next to no traction and the NDP are basically irrelevant.
Actually given Quebec social views you’d think the NDP could drain votes from the Bloq. I wonder why they don’t?
Why vote NDP when you can get support for many of the same policies, plus thumb your nose at The Rest Of Canada[sup]TM[/sup] by voting for the Bloq? And since Gil has been announcing an entire litany of things he won’t let a minority Conservative government do, he’s likely minimized the number of people who’ll place strategic anti-Tory votes for the Liberals.
It’s going to be interesting because we actually have four party leaders who can speak French. That really counts for something here. Harper is fluent but learned formal rench as an adult. I’ve heard Layton’s French, and it’s not bad – very colloquial, because he learned it on the streets when he was growing up in Montreal.
Last debate I saw in French, I winced at Alexa McDonough’s accent. Awful. But then Preston Manning started off with “PURR-mitt-ay-mwa de VOO PAR-lay on FRAWN-ssay,” and then proceeded to speak in English, so I don’t feel so bad.
We’re hoping to pick up some support. Right now, most of this province despises Martin and fears Harper, and I doubt that’s going to change. The goal is to convince the province that we’re the best alternative, not the Bloc. Two things tripped us up at the dropping of the writ.
The first is that we and the Bloc have mostly the same platform, except they’re hardline Quebec nationalist, and we’re federalist. One new development is all the public musing around a Bloc-Conservative coalition. That Duceppe is stating conditions for such a coalition is a strong sign that he might support it. Maybe our new slogan here should be, “A vote for Duceppe is a vote for Harper”?
That could be their Achilles’ Heel. But like Harper on his socially regressive views, Duceppe is wisely keeping quiet on the possibility of a coalition with a man who represents the opposite of everything the people of this province value.
We were also hampered by Bill Blaikie’s passionate support for the Clarity Act. A lot of Quebeckers took that as a slap in the face, a de facto declaration that their votes shouldn’t count for as much as anyone else’s. Layton’s willingness to repeal it may give us a boost here.
Minor hijack here, but I’m curious as to where the word “Bloq” came from. Is it meant to be humourous, a reference to something, an abbreviation for Bloc Québécois, or do people really think that’s how it’s spelt?
How exactly does the Clarity Act make Quebecer’s votes somehow less valuable than anyone else’s?