This seems likely up until the part that involves the Gators winning several games in a row after UGA, including South Carolina and Florida State. That does not seem possible at this point. Plus, if we do beat Georgia, South Carolina and Vanderbilt, we wind up in the SEC Championship Game, where we get walloped by a West team to be determined. But losing to an ACC team in the Peach Bowl does seem like a good possibility.
Is there anybody brave enough to predict how long it might take for the Belt to get back into the FBS universe if KY loses to Charleston Sou. Buccaneers on Nov/6?
How big a joke could that be? What would Herbstreit or Holtz have to say about that? For that matter, where else but here have you even heard mention of the College Football Belt?
If Charleston does get the belt from UK, it could stay in the FCS division for awhile. FCS teams do not play a lot of FBS teams and if they start handing it off to other teams, it could stay in that division for a year or two.
I had thought that FCS teams play Div II teams and that would be really remarkable that the belt could get down into that division, but checking some FCS schedules, it doesn’t look like they play any Div II teams.
There has been very little reaction to Which FBS Team has played the most FBS Opponents? but before I decided just to let the issue lie I looked at the Hawaii record from 1970-2009 just to get a clue as to how many FBS opponents they have had.
Form your own conclusion at Welcome cfbdatawarehouse.com - BlueHost.com But since Hawaii is the leader in the all-opponents category of all current FBS teams (with non-FBS teams considered) it makes sense to look at their conference play as a first step in answering the question. Here are the top 15 in that survey with Florida (the best opponents record among Big Six Conference teams) at Number 13:
-------- Sorted by Total Opponents 1970-2009 -------
Hawaii Total Opponents 107 Total Wins 263
Arkansas State Total Opponents 104 Total Wins 204
Nevada Total Opponents 97 Total Wins 284
Louisville Total Opponents 96 Total Wins 241
Troy State Total Opponents 95 Total Wins 289
Louisiana Tech Total Opponents 93 Total Wins 249
Marshall Total Opponents 93 Total Wins 261
Nevada-Las Vegas Total Opponents 93 Total Wins 205
North Texas Total Opponents 93 Total Wins 184
Louisiana-Monroe Total Opponents 91 Total Wins 200
Cincinnati Total Opponents 90 Total Wins 213
Kansas State Total Opponents 90 Total Wins 215
SEC-5 Florida -- 89 Total Wins 336
Louisiana-Lafayette Total Opponents 89 Total Wins 182
ACC-1 Miami (FL) -- 88 Total Wins 325
It’s worth noting that Hawaii, along with quite a few other teams, has been in non-BCS conferences over the 1970-2009 period:
Football Classifications (NCAA started classification in 1937):
1937-1972 NCAA College Division (Small College)
1973-1973 NCAA Division II
1974-1977 NCAA Division I
1978-20XX NCAA Division I-A
I have yet to check further into your notion of how long it could take the belt to get back to FBS teams after getting lost in Div II or lower. That could make for some real fun trivia!
As far as I can tell, Div I and Div I-AA team do not ever play Div II or Div III teams. So the Mythical Belt is not going to get “lost” in that Division.
if Charleston happens to beat UK, they only have game remaining: Presbyterian.
Looking at their record, it appears that neither Charleston (2-4) or Presbyterian (0-6) have good teams. So the chances of either team getting the belt appear to really remote.
I’ll give you “really remote” but that’s not to say “impossible.” We’ve all seen big name teams lose to I-AA teams at one time or other. The right combination of the Big Team being down that week, taking the Little Team for granted, or the Little Team being stoked for a chance to knock off the Big Team, can make for those rare and thrilling upsets. Sometimes it’s just in the cards.
That’s the main appeal to me of the notion of The Belt. Keep teams honest and underscore the idea that the Big Team is never a shoo-in.
BTW, do you have a cite for the thing about “Div I and Div I-AA team do not ever play Div II or Div III teams”? Is there a rule or something?
This is untrue. There are statistics given here, together with a list of lower division teams winning. (Note that the list includes victories by non-BCS teams over BCS teams as well). This year, it appears that D2 teams have played D1AA teams 50 times, winning 12. D3 teams have played D1AA teams twice, winning once. NAIA teams have played D1AA teams 22 times, winning 7. The stats appear to go back to 2006.
One thing to bear in mind is that many of the D1AA teams that lose are non-scholarship teams, but it would be possible for the belt to drop a division (or leave the NCAA entirely).
Excellent data! Does that site provide anything like an answer to “which FBS team has played the most FBS opponents?” directly, without the manual counting and such I had to do at http://cfbdatawarehouse.com/
That’s its greatest appeal, as far as I’m concerned. No team can be ruled ineligible. All teams have a theoretical shot at it, and the vagaries of scheduling and week-to-week strength (or weakness) make it possible for anybody to be Belt Holder at some point. The longer a team maintains possession of The Belt the more likely their status of Champion will be recognized.
To elevate the Belt Holder to “National Champion” is unlikely ever to replace a true playoff’s winner, but it appears to me to be a more equitable solution than the current BCS system. The polls and computers are just too open to all sorts of criticism.
When was the last time we had a legitimate and uncontested unanimous National Champion in College Football? And who was the Belt Holder at that time?
The undefeated 2005 Texas Longhorns faced the only other undefeated team in Div 1A, USC Trojans. Texas emerged as the only team in all of 1A without a loss while also playing in and winning the BCS Championship game. That’s as close to legitimate, uncontested, and unanimous as you’re going to find.
Texas also took the belt from USC (the current holder) in the very same title game.
How long can Florida hold on to it? Last time they had it (they won it from Oklahoma in the BCS Championship Game Jan/2009 and lost it to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game in Dec/2009) they held it for 12 defenses.
If Florida wins and manages not to lose to Appalachian State or Florida State before the SECCG, or,
If South Carolina wins and manages not to lose to Troy or Clemson before the SECCG and,
If Auburn beats Georgia or Alabama and makes it to Atlanta, then Auburn will have a shot at The Belt.
(If Georgia beats Auburn, does Georgia have a mathematical chance to go to the SECCG? If so, The Belt would stay with whoever wins the SCar-FL game and would be up for grabs in whichever bowl this weekend’s winner goes to, assuming they still get to a bowl, and assuming they don’t lose it meanwhile to one of the teams mentioned above!)
In any case the SECCG could have The Belt winner taking it to a bowl (including the BCSCG) where another conference will have a crack at it.
However, before the SECCG, The Belt could have moved to another conference by way of:
Appalachian State to the Southern Conference (FCS)
Troy to the Sun Belt Conference (FBS)
Clemson or Florida State to the Atlantic Coast Conference (FBS)
