The Comey letter's effect on a State Senate election in New York

Politics & Elections
1

Close state senate election. A 22 year entrenched Republican challenged by an energetic upstart. (Who actually knocked on 6,000+ doors) In spite of getting hundreds of thousands (probably over a million) of campaign ads from charter school PACs, the Republican on election night appeared to have won by over four thousand votes, his closest election ever, but still 52-48%.

Oddly, against tradition, the counting of the absentee ballots actually took away about 3,000 of that 4,000 vote margin. Usually the GOP does better with those, but not this time.

The reason? Most of those absentee ballots had been mailed in prior to the Comey letter and prior to most of that million dollar ad blitz.

That letter hurt Hillary, but at least in this instance, it probably also hurt a down ticket Democrat.

2

I don’t see any logical connection to the FBI’s investigation of Clinton. This seems like post hoc, ergo propter hoc. Why would the email investigation impact a state senate race?

3

Did the FBI investigate this state senate candidate? If not, then someone is grasping at straws for this conclusion.

4

I think it suppressed Democratic turnout nationwide and as a result, candidates far downballot were hurt by the lack of Democratic voters.

5

Help me untangle the OP. Usually the Republicans do better in absentee ballots than they did this year, and the reason they did badly with absentees this year is the Comey letter? Huh?

6

So, a million in advertising on behalf of an incumbent candidate, and a statement from the FBI about a different candidate, and the incumbent won. Because of the FBI statement.

Oooookay.

Regards,
Shodan

7

Does anyone have a link to something supporting the conventional wisdom that absentee ballots usually trend Republican?

8

As of last year, it looked like Democrats actually held the advantage: Will Democrats Keep Their Early Voting Advantage in 2016? | Time

9

So, negative press coverage of Hillary suppressed the turnout for Democrats, but negative press coverage of Trump didn’t affect or increased Republican turnout? Things that make one go “Hmmm”…

It’s a fact that Dem voters stayed home in droves, particularly in swing states. The only 3 theories that make any sense are:

  1. Dems were so overconfident in a HC victory that they didn’t think they (individually) needed to vote; or
  2. Dem voters really didn’t like her as a candidate
  3. some combination of 1 & 2

I lean more toward the third theory, personally, with #2 contributing more than 50% to the mix.

10

The attorney general could have ordered FBI Director James Comey not to send his bombshell letter on Clinton emails. Here’s why she didn’t.

Posted without comment.

11

Short version: Both Comey and Lynch let themselves be intimidated by the Republican attack machine.

12

Dunno about Comey, used to have a pretty good opinion of him. But yeah, if she put the kibosh on it, it would have leaked within minutes, making the whole thing that much worse.