If you squint really hard at this, it can make some sense - though I’m not exactly trying to sanewash Trump’s action here.
I’ll reference a couple of posts on Paul Krugman’s substack for background:
Krugman’s argument, in brief, is that China’s growth is downshifting due to its having “caught up” technologically to the West and its demographics, and further sustained growth needs to happen by pursuing internal demand rather than by investment and exports. But for political reasons (read: the biases of the guy in charge) that’s not likely to happen. Instead, China ran the world’s first ever trillion dollar trade surplus last year, largely by keeping the value of its currency down to keep exports competitive. This neomercantilist policy has negative effects on its trade partners, and there will be a protectionist backlash.
From the end of the second article:
And since China’s trade surplus is a global concern, we should be acting in concert with our allies, not alienating Europe, Canada and Mexico with tariffs on everyone.
(If you’ve gotten this far, you should read Krugman’s substack articles above; I’m no Nobel laureate, and he shows his work with graphs and argumentative detail I’m eliding here.)
So if you are anti-China and reasonably sane in the Trump administration, and you agree that we need a united front against China’s attempt to export away its economic issues, what do you do? You dangle carrots at the targets of Trump’s ire to try to create that united front, attempting to do through coercion what Trump is utterly incapable of doing by appealing to common interest. If that is the case, the idea might be coming from Bessent, Lutnick, or maybe even Mark O’Rubio.
But doing this kind of thing via coercion rather than appeal to common interests is eventually going to piss off your allies, and may push more marginal trading partners into a more wholehearted embrace of China. So I’m not trying to say this is the right way to do things, or that it represents some kind of n-dimensional chess on Trump’s part; it may just be people around him trying desperately to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear.