Trump could effectively pull all support from Ukraine with a single order (well, two or three orders to Defense, Intelligence, and State). It wouldn’t have any immediately profound impact upon domestic politics or economics but it would certainly be devastating to Ukraine, and will cause a reevaluation among all of the NATO members about what they do and how much they can rely upon a Trump Administration (although I think they’re already pretty aware that the cannot).
Although the executive has significant ability to impose or modify tariffs, the Constitutional authority actually lies with the Congress per Article i, Section 8, Clause 1:
The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;
It is possible that enough Republicans might push back to allow Congress to actually defy Trump on this point because of the compound and dire impacts a broad imposition of tariffs would actually have on local and state economies. However, regardless of whether they do or don’t, it takes some time to render an order for tariffs into duty schedules, and unless Trump’s first action is to disband the United States International Trade Commission and do it himself (somehow) it will take at least weeks if not months to assess and apply the sweeping array of tariffs that he has promised. This is one of the many ways Trump and his band of Heritage Foundation oafs have failed to understand their need for a bureaucracy to achieve what they want instead of just tearing everything down.
I’m sure that Trump, and especially Stephen Miller and his cosplay Sturmabteilung friends would like to engage in mass deportation starting on January 21 but the reality is that this is an ‘eating an elephant’ type task that would take an enormous logistical effort to enable this, and there is just isn’t the standing army of law enforcement agents to do this kind of work. ICE is perennially understaffed, it is not a mission that the FBI, DEA, or the Marshals Service is trained or composed for, and as large as it is, CBP just doesn’t have the workforce or facilities to handle rounding up more than a few tens of thousands of people at a time even if they just grab everyone who ‘looks suspicious’. (And no, Trump can’t just use the Army or federalize National Guard without declaring a national emergency, and as an organization it is not composed to perform law enforcement-type activities, and if we go down that route immediately we have even bigger problems.) It took Germany under the Nazi regime years to build up the infrastructure and organization to engage in mass arrests and internment; if that is the first thing Trump does he is going to fall right on his face. Which is not to say he won’t try, and do a lot of harm in the process; it just won’t work and he’ll look stupid trying (not that this has ever stopped him).
Putting US troops in Panama, refusing emergency funds or support to California for fire damage, threatening Denmark or Canada economically or even militarily, and telling NATO to “Fuck off!” while warmly embracing a ceremonial strategic or economic partnership with Russia are all likely possibilities for near term horribleness.
Stranger