The Debt Crisis Thread

The common belief on the right is that “Obamacare” was rammed through despite most Americans not wanting it. But at the time of the passing of the healthcare reform act, 49% of Americansthought its passage was a good thing. Right now only 19% supportthe Republican’s “Cuts only” plan to cut the deficit. Fifty-six percent want a cut-and-tax combo.

It seems to me that Republicans have less of a mandate to keep taxes low and cut spending than they think they do. But we all saw in 2010 what happened when it was perceived that Democrats rammed something through against the will of the public. This current Republican plan is even more out of touch with what the public wants. Good luck in 2012.

You want to talk about not negotiating in good faith or making demands that couldn’t possibly pass? How do you explain “Cut, Cap and Balance.” Is throwing up something that could never pass the Senate or get signed by the president supposed to be some productive use of our Congresspeople’s time? Oh, I suppose they can throw that absolutely ridiculous and extreme piece of crap into a bill, only to take it out later and call it a “concession.” Talk about not negotiating in good faith.
And here’sa column by Joe Scarborough, who seems to think that if the debt limit doesn’t get raised, Aug 3 will be ugly, and Republicans will take the fall.

A lot of whose-fault-is-it stuff is just he-said she-said, and also totally irrelevant. To me there are two differences of quality, not just quantity, between the two sides:
(1) We can look at it in super-simple terms and say that democrats want to fix the deficit by increasing taxes, and republicans want to do it by cutting spending. That’s obviously a vast oversimplification, but there’s some truth to it, at least in the current context. So the difference is, the democrats are clearly willing to support a plan which involves some of each, while the republicans are not. Now you might say that the republicans have a mandate to be totally and completely unyielding on this issue… that they campaigned on it and were elected on it. The trouble is, once you start laying out utterly rigid positions like that, negotiation and compromise become impossible. And remember, all these democrats were also elected, both Obama and the ones in congress.
(2) Fairly large numbers of Republicans seem to be saying that default is just not that big a deal. Which strikes me as a totally insane position. So either they believe that honestly, and are insane/stupid/poorly informed. Or they don’t, and are playing an insanely dangerous game where the probable outcome involves convincing large segments of the American populace of something that is greviously and damagingly false… which is likely to come back to bite all of us in the ass.
More generally, the new utterly-scorched-earth absolute unbreakable no-tax-increases-ever Republican policy is truly one of the most disgusting things I’ve ever seen. It damages the country both in the extent to which it actually stops anything from happening, and because defending it requires ratcheting up the rhetoric and misinformation to previously unseen heights. And it’s so patently and idiotically obviously a foolish position. The US has done utterly fantastically economically in the past with MUCH higher taxes than we have now. Rich people got ridiculously rich and were able to roll around in huge piles of hundred dollar bills back during the Reagan and Clinton eras, both of which featured much higher maximum income tax levels. You don’t like taxes? Great. No one does. Argue against them. Work as hard as you can, ethically, for position and policies which minimize them. But for god’s sake stay in the land of rationality about it.

Enough to know that no one can tell how much of the deficit is for expenditure this year (salaries, etc.) and how much is for things that have a long term benefit (government provided infrastructure such as courthouses, military hardware, roads and bridges) and how much of the service on the debt is from those categories. If you know you have debt but don’t know what you did with it, you can’t evaluate if you have too much debt.

I just love the Obama isn’t negotiating in good faith. He has offered a massive spending cuts along with some revenue enhancements. It’s the Republicans who are refusing to compromise on taxes. I also love how it is Obama’s fault because he won’t cave on social programs, but the Republicans are principled for sticking up for no new taxes.

Because spending cuits are not required to raise the debt ceiling. This is just extortion by one half of one third of the government, to achieve what they could never get through reasoned debate and the normal legislative process. So they resort to terrorism.

What spending cuts did he offer? Be specific.

One of the big reasons the Republicans are demanding no tax increases is because they’ve seen this game played out before. A ‘grand bargain’ is reached which includes spending cuts and tax increases, but the tax increases are always specific and implemented FIRST, and the spending cuts are deferred to the next Congress or are to be decided after some commission looks at the problem and comes back with recommendations for what to cut - recommendations which are then ignored, as Obama ignored the spending cuts recommended by his own deficit commission.

The problem with that is that the tax increases get put into place, and the spending cuts never materialize. In fact, when you raise taxes and take the immediate pressure off the budget, you make it even less likely that there will be political will to make serious spending cuts.

In 1982, Reagan signed TEFRA, the “Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act.” TEFRA was supposed to result in $3 in spending cuts for every $1 in tax increases - that promise had to be made by Democrats to get Reagan to sign the bill. TEFRA raised taxes by 1% of GDP. You would expect a corresponding reduction in government spending of 3% of GDP, but that never happened. Spending just kept going up.

Republicans understand how the game is played. Do you want to ‘cut spending’? First, propose a budget that increases spending by 5% of GDP. Then negotiate a reduction of 1% of GDP in that budget, and voila! You have a 1% GDP ‘spending cut’. In the meantime, spending actually goes up.

Or, you jigger the ‘baseline’. The baseline is the spending level for the next year which is constant given inflation, population increase, etc. So if inflation is 3%, and the population grows by 1%, then the ‘baseline’ can be 4%, and if you only increase the cost of government by 3%, you can claim a ‘spending cut’. That seems fair, if the estimates are correct. But if you always estimate a little high, then you’ve got room to ‘cut’ government while still increasing it.

There are lots of other tricks like this, but the bottom line is that the only spending cut you can count on is one that’s already happened and that is definable in an unambiguous way (i.e. isn’t just a backdoor transfer from one column in a spreadsheet to another or some other obfuscation).

The same thing happened to Bush I - he also agreed to raise taxes in exchange for spending cuts. The taxes happened, the spending cuts vaporized. Hell, Obama’s health care cost estimate already includes $500 billion in ‘cuts’ to other programs that no one believes will happen (one of them, the doctor adjustment for medicare, has already been kicked down the road twice).

So many Republicans are simply saying no to more taxes, because they don’t believe the government will actually cut spending unless it’s forced to by external circumstances. Some of them even believe that in the long run a default (or the effort required to re-budget to avoid a default) will be preferable to simply allowing the government to continue growing, because in the latter case it will default anyway in a few years because it won’t be able to borrow enough money, and then the result of that default will be even more destructive. I don’t agree with that, but I certainly understand it.

I have a solution: Would you Democrats agree to a budget that had a 1:1 spending cut to tax increase ratio, with the condition that the tax increases only kick in AFTER equivalent spending cuts are made? So if you do $50 billion in real cuts next year, you get to add a $50 billion tax increase the year after that. Would that work for you? Because a proposal like that might be the only thing that will get Tea Party Republicans to accept any tax increases.

Of course. :wink:

That’s a response to your gloating over what you claim, in isolation, are Obama’s low numbers.

Sam, would you prefer to pretend you didn’t post your previous parade of half-truths? I could certainly understand why you might.

Would this be the markets in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece or Spain? If so, color me unimpressed.

Would this be the markets in the rest of the EU that are going to be holding bag for the nations listed above? If so, continue coloring.

Everyone is worried, but nothing matters until we actually do not make a payment. This is an ugly game of chicken, and I do not know who will blink first. I also do not know who will win the PR battle and take the fall.

Any bets on whether Boehner can twist enough arms to get his plan through the House? I think it will be one of those 9 hour votes where the holdout Reps. are getting waterboarded in the cloak room until they agree to vote “aye”.

Unless Boehner is willing to start threatening to take away committee assignements or other retribution, I don’t think he will win. Maybe not even then, those TP’ers are crazy.

This will end about a minute after Boehner realizes he has to stiff his caucus’ radicals and deal with Pelosi and Reid instead. Not before. Nothing is going to get through on a party line vote, only by kickin’ it old skool Washington-style.

Maybe **Sam **is simply an agent provocateur? As a Canadian with a raw material based economy, I can see how that might be a motivator to join a fifth column to increase commodity prices and the value of the Loonie.

That would be sneaky. Sam’s Canadian.

My two cents from the local angle: if your a member of the House’s Tea Party caucus, the short-term political calculus as follows: 1) If you raise the debt ceiling, you get hell from the constituents who voted for you and they will not forget come the primaries for 2012. 2) If you don’t, the one’s who didn’t vote for you will complain, but not to the degree of those in constituents in 1).

(This excludes the cratering of the economy, Boehner’s arm twisting and other political considerations.).

The Tea Party may already be a spent force. There are such signs, poor attendance at gatherings, the total disaster of the Malign Sarah’s movie. Don’t get me wrong, the roughly 20% of the population they represent will still be there, but we won’t be treating them like they were 80%.

How does a higher loonie help Canadian commodity producers? Their costs are in loonies and they largely get paid in greenbacks.

More likely he missed out on the great Arizona real estate grab and is hoping to re-torpedo the American real estate market so he can pick up a cheap winter cottage. :stuck_out_tongue:

To me, Canada is: Mostly Harmless. But in other news, since no one has said this, I’ll say it. WE ARE GOING TO DEFAULT!! All hands abandon ship!

Which group is larger?

I honestly want to commend Sam for making arguments with some specifics. I am getting pretty disgusted with the pattern of TAX=BAD! GOVERNMENT=BAD! MUSLIMS=BAD! BAD=LIBRULS=BAD! line of thinking. The pubbies have reduced their rhetoric to a set of points that amount to religious dogmas that must be accepted without any reference to the reality or verifiable circumstances. At least Sam is referring to reality, or making claims that can be confirmed or denied based on facts. How refreshing! That said:

Not part of the campaign? Only if “never shutting up about it for more than 5 minutes” amounts to not part of the campaign. Gimme a break.

Also, why would we expect the government to shrink? The economy usually grows, the population grows, the infrastructure grows… everything else is usually growing. Why would we expect the government to shrink? Don’t get me wrong, shrinking it may sometimes be appropriate, but how can you make the ideological claim that government growth simply. must. always. be. stopped?