Let’s face facts: as things right now, the Democrats are in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Biden is too old. Warren and Sanders are too radical. Castro, Booker, and Harris are too identity-ish. Klobuchar too bland. Buttigieg too gay*.
Is there anyone else out there we could nominate?
These are the people who are running. We’re only a couple of months away from the first primary. Nobody is going to jump into the race and sweep away all the current candidates.
Get a grip.
Why are Warren and Sanders too radical when their policies are popular among the public? And why is Biden too old? Biden is only 3 years older than Trump.
Also why do people assume the average voter is a republican who ‘maybe’ will vote democrat as long as the democratic candidate is so bland as to not be offensive? America has changed quite a bit in the last few decades.
Nearly 45% of voters are either white liberals or minorities. The idea that the ‘average voter’ is a white republican who ‘maybe’ will vote democratic as long as the democrats are passive, submissive and bland enough is a very outdated POV.
Elizabeth Warren is 70 YO. And in my opinion, too old.
Someone new jumping in at this stage of the race? Yeah, that would be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
He will not get a grip. You will see. I will teach you.
Define popular among the public, my friend?
What I can tell you is that if Warren (or Sanders) is the nominee, there will be an avalanche of effort to undermine her candidacy. The big business crowd that laments Trump’s trade policies will hold fire on Trump and turn their aim on Warren, who promises to be their nemesis.
The only time that you can really and truly afford to make enemies of big business in this country is when the economy is absolutely, positively in the shitter, to the point where there’s revolutionary sentiment brewing. Basically, like what we had in 2008 or 1932. Short of that, forget it. A socialist of any stripe hasn’t a chance.
True, but Trump makes up shit as he goes and he entertains. He’s a buffoon, which is charming and disarming at any age. Biden tries to be coherent, and because he’s 78, it’s sometimes apparent that he hasn’t the ability to be who he wants to be. Trump gets away with being old; Biden won’t.
You will see what I’m talking about when we get into the thick weeds of the electoral college.
iswydt…
Hillary is available.
One of these people will be the nominee, they will win, they will be the new leader of the Democratic Party, and this thread will seem absurd in retrospect.
You mean the one person in all of history to lose an election to Donald Trump?
Lol. Did you see the Shadenfreud thread from 2016?
https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=810000&highlight=Shadenfreud
You know, Al Gore is a young 71.
Any potential candidate is running out of time. This primary cycle is front loaded with big shares of total delegates being decided early. States set the lead time to get on the ballot. 30-60 days is pretty typical. States that are strongly Dem leaning also tend to have implemented measures like early in person and more permissive absentee ballot rules. That tends to push the registration requirements earlier. It is important to remember that those same states tend to get more delegates than their population would suggest because of bonuses in the rules for recent votes going Democratic. The earliest closing time states probably have some correlation with those states getting more delegates.
In some states it is pretty easy to register. Some paperwork and a small fee can be enough to get on the ballot. In others it takes collecting signatures on a petition. That takes time. It especially takes time for a potential candidate that at this point has no campaign staff or offices in the state in question. The bright side for hiring campaign staff is that those dropping now frees up the market of qualified labor. It is still a large field so staff could still be an issue. Still hiring people and collecting signatures before the cut off for the ballot takes additional time.
It is possible to just blow off some of the states with the earliest cutoffs. It takes a majority of delegates to win the nomination on the first round of voting, though. We do have that front loaded schedule this time. We also have the proportional rules used by the DNC. It is harder to rack up dominating wins in some states to make up for ignoring too many delegates by simply not being on ballots.
By current DNC debate rules it is going to be tough to make the November debate. There are nine days left to meet the numbers of individual donors. A household name might have a chance with that. Getting enough qualifying polls is going to be tough unless they are declaring as I type. That means the mystery candidate better assume they are not part of the free publicity and messaging that comes from debating until the Dec 19th debate. They better also hope that people are paying attention right before the holiday season.
The rules and state laws are chewing up potential late entries by putting them at a severe disadvantage. With every passing day that gets worse. Changing those to clearly give a late entry a chance comes with some pretty severe risks for the DNC.
I’ll put my neck out. Trump will not be re-elected. You can gloat away if I’m wrong; I’ll be too busy building my bunker to care.
As far as I can tell, you jump from thread-to-thread panicking about how the Dems don’t stand a chance.
I’d just like to reiterate: HRC won the popular vote by a considerable margin. And she was a historically unpopular candidate running on a very lousy platform built on almost nothing but entitlement.
Anyone left who has a real chance to win has measurably more charisma and likeability rating far greater than she could ever have managed.
On top of that, the nation, including republicans, are suffering from severe doses of Trump Fatigue.
You didn’t seem to want to address it in the Warren 2020 thread, so I’ll re-state it here:
You are wildly overestimating how informed or engaged the voting populace is–and I mean PEOPLE WHO VOTE. Most of them vote on feelings, or vote because they are so sick of what’s happening now that they want to vote for the anti-Now.
Whoever is the anti-Trump fares a strong chance of winning by virtue of simply not being Trump.
I’d encourage you, as others have, to calm down.
I remember a hell of a lot of talk in 2016 about how Donald Trump had single-handedly destroyed the Republican party forever with his polarizing and outrageous campaign, which was doomed to go down in flames, and the Democratic party was about to emerge stronger than it’s ever been. I can remember the sheer confidence of the people making these proclamations.
The Dems could ABSOLUTELY blow it again, and in fact I think the chances of it are high.
I’ve said many many times I think Pete Buttigieg is the most likely to beat Trump, and I do not think being gay is as big of a liability as a lot of people think. This isn’t 1992, it’s not even 2002. Being gay isn’t a punchline anymore. It is WAY more accepted than it’s ever been.
I remember a huge swing in the 2018 midterms, on par with the backlash following watergate.
I keep coming back to Buttigieg, and I think he has the “it” factor to be a great leader. The question is whether he can get minority voters to turn out for him.
Al Gore, Michelle Obama, Bart Gordon, Lincoln Davis, Mark Warner, Conner Eldridge.
The four white men I discussed are from the South.
For Democrats to win the presidency, you have to do well in the South, despite the GOP’s Southern strategy domination.
Carter (1976), B. Clinton (1992-1996), and Obama (2008-2012) performed well in the South.
Al Gore, 20 years ago, ran a bad campaign and could not even win FL (we all know how that went out), AR, TN, LA, MO.
If Gore could have kept Tennessee in the D column, you would have had a Pres. Gore.
Yes, Democrats and Republicans are running in a small-sliver, Electoral College campaign.
You need MI/PA/WI/NH/AZ to win, but try to pick up NC/FL/GA.
Those guys and Michelle Obama can do that.
The Clintons are no longer powerful in Democratic politics.
Hillary is finished.
She will endorse, but she is finished.
I don’t think Hillary 2020 should even be a thought.