What brought this to my mind was my internal reaction to many of the posts that happen in every breaking news thread, either political or otherwise, where people feel compelled to post their theories about what is going to happen next, based mostly or entirely on speculation.
I think it’s very difficult for many people to resist speculating about what’s going to happen next, and then to enumerate the consequences of that happening, and what the next event after that will be, and so on. It’s like they’re excitedly knocking down an imaginary row of dominoes. I don’t feel that excitement, especially in those cases where there is almost a certainty that we will find out, and most of the speculations will then fall away.
I think of myself as somewhat phlegmatic when it comes to events. Time will tell, we’ll find out tomorrow or next week, and then the consequences will flow. I guess I’m in the minority that way. Not better or worse, just less exercised about “what if.”
If you fall in (what seems to be) the majority camp, I’m interested in what feelings contribute to that point of view.
I always hope that there are people connected to people in important positions, and that there’s some chance that something which is said will help to influence the world in a positive way.
I suspect I’m in the middle of the road about it. I do like to speculate, but I prefer to wait to pass ultimate judgement. But I think one of the reasons it’s so popular, is that it gives one a sense of participation in the event when one speculates.
Here in the US (and I suspect posters elsewhere in the world) it’s easy to feel disconnected from our theoretical leaders and persons of cultural and social influence. By speculating on the various who-what-when-where-whys of their actions and accidents as it were, we feel connected, we feel involved again. It puts us, even if every so slightly in a situation where we feel some control of the narrative.
I find it very similar to watching a TV series or reading a book you like/care about, and speculating on what is going to happen next. As IRL, we’re speculating with limited information, but you get the same sense of involvement, as well as the highs of a correct guess, and the sheepish ‘awww’ if it doesn’t.
And lastly, just like with any other gossip ( and let’s not pretend males don’t do it just as much as women stereotypically do, just in slightly different formats), we love, LOVE to be able to safely pass judgement on the peccadillos of others behind the safety of the metaphorical curtains of internet anonymity.
So TLDR, just waiting for all the facts to come out leaves us without the feeling of participating in the events, both in reality and fiction.
There are a few reasons in my case. These aren’t all always applicable to every situation, but it’s usually a combination of some of them.
Hypothesizing on what might happen next (and reading what other people think) helps me better understand the current context and what’s happening now, e.g., “why is X important? Oh, because it could lead to Y or Z.”
It’s fun to guess what might happen and then see if you were right. On the selfish side, you get that endorphin rush and the opportunity to lord it over everyone else. On the practical side, it helps develop your critical thinking skills by assessing in what ways you were right and in what ways you were wrong.
It’s something to do while waiting for more info. There’s only so many facts that people can post, but for big important events, as ParallelLines says, we still want to participate somehow.
One thing that sometimes surprises me is how relatively little of this there is on these boards, considering how (again, relatively) often people actually do speculate accurately. Once in a while someone will note that they predicted this six months ago or something, even less often someone will credit someone else for predicting something.
I occupy myself with reading what other people say, and so I’m actually grateful for some of it. It does get repetitive though, especially for those who pop in without having read the rest of the thread.
The threads that get me down are those that aren’t about important events, just noisy news stories covering murders or other News Of The World sorts of events. Some people seem to enjoy ghoulishly raking through the details as if they wished they were more closely involved, or writing almost as if they knew the people involved. I do tent do stay away from those threads.
You’re right, and I was thinking about lording it over others in my head. I’d never actually post “neener neener, I was right.” But in my weaker moments, I’ve certainly thought it and have taken certain pleasure in doing so.
Come on, that never happens here. (FWIW, I agree. Or at least I don’t typically speculate in them, even if I do still read some of them.)
Amen! I at least give credit for those who add an ETA about being ninja’d or a ‘doh’ for repeating points brought up earlier.
Going to second Troutman’s agreement with you and this point - although it’s by no means unique to the board, but there are people who take unhealthy delight in certain details. I mean, I get it if it’s someone who has personally (or politically) hurt you in some way, but there are plenty of stalker-eqse fascination it seems for some people.
It is fun to speculate, there is rarely any downside seeing as when we are right we can point to it and look like a smart-arse and quietly let our misses sink into obscurity. Human natures ensures that will happen.
But long-term prediction generally is really, really difficult to do about any subject more complicated than a chemical reaction.
It would be useful for all of us to either add ourselves (or mentally add to other people’s predictions) a disclaimer that “this could of course all be bullshit because it is really too complicated”
People at the moment and the recent past have been confidently predicting how things such as Brexit, the pandemic, the Ukraine war will pan out.
Again, it is fun but the real answer for all of those is that we can have some certainty on short term effects, very little on the medium term and pretty much none in the long term. But that isn’t very satisfying.
It may be apocryphal but, according to legend, when Harold Macmillan was asked what he feared most as Prime Minister, he replied 'Events , my dear boy , events ’ And of course the longer the period you are predicting for, the greater the chance for “events”.
Our current world is crammed full of horrific news and we often don’t know what’s going to happen.
Is the American political system about to collapse?
Will there be another World War?
How many millions could die in Taiwan?
I find it easier to look at smaller and less broad events like missing persons or street crime. It’s still tragic but the outcome usually comes quicker.
True Crime has always been fascinating to the public. Think about the news papers that covered Jack the Ripper. Agatha Christie made her murders more shocking by placing them in Edwardian manor houses and small villages.
Crime Tv shows like Americas Most Wanted, Cold Case Files, and First 48 draw high ratings. I find it important to be reminded of humanity’s brutality. I’m less likely to leave a door unlocked or walk in public without being aware of the people around me. Basic safety precautions can make a difference.
There is a grave problem, not so much in private conversation, but in public debate in my opinion: Persons in position of power or influence are not only allowed, but forced by public and media expectations to immediately publicly emote ahead of the facts. I will get frowns from my wife if I say “I don’t know, ask me in a week’s time” with regard to an event, but a politician or celebrity cannot afford to do that.
OTOH, watching Dateline, it’s almost 9 out of 10 episodes where a husband kills his wife and expects the police to believe that random psychos prowl the affluent suburbs looking for victims (the 10th episode is actually that, but with the easier prey of street prostitutes).
I don’t mind speculation, heck I do it myself all the time. But demanding actual answers is fucking annoying. Like the people who insist we should know exactly why the search warrant is valid, even as the cops are still searching…
To expand the topic a little, I see similar a difficulty with entertainment media. People want an explanation for every little detail when watching a movie or show. There’s no patience for things to develop.
I’m not sure if people are less patient now than in the past, or if there’s simply more venues to express impatience now. Maybe some of both.
(FWIW, I agree. Or at least I don’t typically speculate in them, even if I do still read some of them.)