One thing I’d add, even if they don’t achieve a strict majority, I wonder about the FDP joining them. The FDP has been struggling for years and almost consistently falling under the 5% outcome needed to get them seats. A while back they banded with the AfD in Thueringen, and the reaction was so negative (see the traditional gift of flowers thrown at the FDP politician’s feet below) that they backed out. Now, I’m not so sure.
Valid. But that’s why its important that extremist parties cannot undermine democracy. The Nazis probably would’ve been voted out had they not destroyed the democracy.
The public in Venezuela would vote out Maduros party if the democracy was still functioning.
Telling people to never vote for extremist parties will likely just increase their appeal. In some ways its probably better for extremist parties to win, fuck everything up, then get voted out. But again, if that worked Trump wouldn’t have won twice.
Building a governmental system that can survive letting people who want to destroy that system be placed in power over that system is a tall order. an impossibly tall one IMO.
If you permit an extremist government to be seated, they will try to destroy the gaurdrails defending democracy from them. And they will probably mostly succeed. Especially if given enough time or multiple attempts.
I recall it’s called accelerationism. The idea of “take one step back so you can take several steps forward.” Good in theory, except that it depends on people indeed seeing that the extremists did a bad job (many just won’t agree that they did a bad job,) and you still being able to win power afterwards.
So one: how do you not permit it when they win an election fairly? That does have relevance to fascist takeovers. But that said I have hope voting out MAGA is soon to happen despite winning all the levers mostly legally. The absolute fuck up that Trumpism is bringing is apparent to all but his base now, and while damaged and threatened our institutions are not successfully completely broken such that he is ruler for life to pass it on to Don Jr as a throne.
But two to this case: again this is not the country, it is a fairly small weak state of the country. I hope they lose. Their having support anywhere is scary. But if they win the disaster they will cause will be bad for those of that state and contained there. They wouldn’t have the levers to destroy the guardrails. And nationally seeing them fail so miserably is the best antidote to their continued rise.
That is true, but building a democratic government system that excludes people who want to destroy it is IMHO impossible too.
In a democracy if the demos wants to destroy the system the system will get destroyed, otherwise it’s not a democracy
I wish I could share your optimism. Here is an article by invitation in the Economist by Andreas Rödder who is a professor of contemporary history at the Johannes-Gutenberg-University Mainz, director of Republik21, a centre-right think-tank, and a member of the CDU (as described in the article. His wikipage is only in German, French and Hungarian). I am not happy with what he suggests (more talking with the AfD), but he has a point here and there. And his predictions are gloomier than yours (gift link, no pre-view).
Not seeing any of his three visions as catastrophic?
Merz attempts to “continue his course towards limited reforms” and likely he’d lose leadership. Yeah?
Or he tries to “embark on the sweeping reforms Mr Merz had promised before coming into office, to tackle things like high labour costs, bloated government spending and over-regulation. That would be risky, and could precipitate the collapse of his government or fresh elections …”
Or the “third possibility is that the cdu unravels amid the shockwaves of the state elections. The result would be nothing less than the reshaping of the German party system. This might give rise to a new centre-right movement comprising Christian Democrats, liberal Free Democrats and disillusioned afdvoters, dedicated to reform in areas that matter most to Germans.”
Maybe gloomy for Merz?
Nothing there that disputes that whichever of those three AfD’s national fortunes and rise would not be helped by winning the election, unless I missed it.
I’m thinking AfD winning would be like a vicious dog catching the mail truck, and getting killed under its wheels. I feel bad for the driver but the truck is okay and some dogs honestly are a threat and sadly it’s okay if they die.
Are we talking past each other? It would be catastrophic in all three cases, I did not deny that. You were the one, I understood, that argued
while I fear that it will reverberate well beyond the Land / state of Saxony-Anhalt. I don’t agree with Mr. Rödder’s argument that we should open a dialoge with the AfD to defang it (I don’t think that would work). But his analysis of the possible consequences at the federal level of this election giving the AfD an absolute majority in the Land may be right. The AfD is no longer an local or an Eastern phenomenon. Something must be done, I just don’t know what. Despite having despicable candidates, being corrupt, having an irrealistic and irresponsible program, (I could go on) the AfD is getting stronger and stronger in the polls, also in Western Germany.
And when a political party or movement gets the open support of Putin and Trump, bad things happen.
My belief is that AfD winning in Saxony-Anhalt is not a desired thing, them existing at all, having anyone who supports them, is not a desired thing. And if they win there it may more a bigger picture good than bad thing.
They won’t break free election guard rails. They won’t impact immigration policy. They won’t harm the national economy. They could implement education changes and other policies. And they don’t have the money to deliver on promises made.
The local economy OTOH is highly dependent on skilled workers from outside the region, domestic and foreign, as you pointed out. Workers who may leave even if not forced out.
It seems probable that those in the rest of the country who see them as a good alternative to the traditional parties will be unimpressed by what they deliver when they actually gain power.
The path that scares me is one that leads these people to have power at the Federal level, and nothing in that piece implies a win there increases that risk.
Merz is inspired to try to deliver on his own promises? Or to follow through on his plans? His unpopularity is not helped? Not on my worries list.
The talking past each other is this:
Where does he say that in that linked piece?? Which of those three listed options is that?
I was talking with one of my best friends today about the coming elections, and I told him that if I was a German politician of one of the moderate parties in charge, I would study AfD’s party program point by point, may it be social, cultural, economical, ecological, foreign, military, doesn’t matter, and do EXACTLY the opposite, and that would be the best politics for Germany.
The ethno-nationalist, xenophobic, pro-Russian wing grew increasingly powerful, shifting the AfD towards the far right.
This has not stopped the party growing in popularity. It is polling at just below 30%, an all-time high and double its share in 2023. [My bold: that is a poll at the federal, whole country level!] It has a clear lead in two of the three election states and is among the front-runners in the other, traditionally solidly left Berlin. It may win an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt’s state parliament.
The Land, to be clear, is Saxony-Anhalt. The federal states are called Länder, singular Land. There they may win an absolute majority this Sunday.
And the consequences at federal level, the central government, are the three points he sketches.
However the state elections play out, Mr Merz faces three options at a federal level. He could play down the results as mere regional incidents and continue his course towards limited reforms. […]
The second option would be to embark on the sweeping reforms Mr Merz had promised before coming into office […]
The third possibility is that the CDU unravels amid the shockwaves of the state elections. The result would be nothing less than the reshaping of the German party system.
And yes, those are three plausible possibilities. Not the only ones, but possible. So the election in a Land (Saxony-Anhalt) may have those consequences at the country (federal) level. Is the misunderstanding perhaps that when I write Land you understand the whole country? That is not what Land means in German politics.
Definitely evil. Trump evil, AfD evil, Putin evil, Le Pen evil, Farange evil, Orban evil, Bibi evil, I could go on. They’re all an evil bunch of monsters.
ETA: and I’m afraid they’re all about to taking my world, my life and my freedom.
ETA2: and, oh yes, incompetent too, of course. Because their only political competence lies in flinging verbal shit.
Yes I am playing out the what if they do win the state (Land) … understanding that it may be quite bad for that state but in terms of the threat that their rise nationally has been it may actually not be a bad thing.
And that is the point where I say I wish I could share your optimism. I fear they will gain momentum at the federal level too, and while they will surely not win an absolute majority there, at the federal level, in the foreseeable future, they may end making the country ungovernable. Which is good for them, for Putin, for trump, and bad for me. Polling at ~30% right now would make them the biggest political group in Parliament (the Bundestag), probably with a blocking minority.
FWIW, I’m good friends with a couple that lives in Saxony-Anhalt. I visited them twice last year for a few days, and it’s beautiful down there, lovely scenery and nature, good climate (sometimes called the "Tuscany of Germany) and most of all, cultural monuments and relics in almost every little village, monasteries, castles, churches, often from the early middle ages and in amazing condition, really a place to visit and see. I attended a Iggy Pop concert there in Halle, Saale, with 10k mostly alternative/counter-culture spectators, I also took a walk through Halle city, which is a university town and has the same ethnic and cultural diversity as any West German city, so the state (or land) of Saxony-Anhalt isn’t (yet) totally in the fascist’s hands.
As for my befriended couple, they’re both not native from the region, but she’s (who is also my ex-girlfriend from 30 years ago) from the Sauerland in North Rhine-Westphalia like me, and he was born in a small village in Saxony (which is a different federal state in the former GDR), and they’re both massively anti-AfD, her being a paying member of DIE PARTEI, and him of the Green party. They are concerned, but they couldn’t leave, only in an emergency, because they bought and are still renovating a 300 years old former parsonage in a little village, and it’s lovely there.
My fault too: Land means country (Spanien ist ein Land = Spain is a country), and Land is also short for Bundesland, federal state in Germany (and Austria). I wanted to make what I meant clear by using italics, but it was not as obvious as I thought.
To your excuse: it’s complicated, there are lands (Länder), Staaten (states) and Stadtstaaten (city states) in Germany that all count as federal states. A land would be Hesse or Lower Saxony, a state Bavaria or Saxony (“Freistaaten”, “Free States”) and city states Hamburg, Bremen and Berlin.
