The AfD’s manifesto in Saxony-Anhalt is extremely right-wing. Proposals such as ending the right to asylum and a moratorium on non-EU immigration could not be implemented. They are matters for the national not state government.
But other AfD proposals are legally feasible. These include changing the school curriculumto downplay the significance of the Nazi era – a programme one AfD politician, Hans-Thomas Tillschneider, sums up as: “More Bismarck, less Hitler”. This was a reference to Otto von Bismarck, who oversaw the unification of Germany in 1871.
The AfD has also suggested introducing the routine singing of the German national anthem in school assemblies and ending what it calls “inclusion” in mainstream education for children with special needs. Defunding the protestant church, which the AfD has accused of being too focused on social not theological questions, would also be a real possibility.
For the sake of those who live in that state I hope AfD loses. And if they win? Maybe not a bad thing? These are not people with any kind of governing experience and odds are great their getting into power will be disastrous for the state, possibly helping demonstrate what the alternative would actually look like
Hopefully still on topic, but I’ve wondered what progressive-liberal parties in Europe would have to lose from taking a tough stance on immigration and Islam. By doing so they would de-fang parties like AfD by stealing their one and only popular stance, while still winning all the liberal votes (nobody who has liberal views could vote for a conservative party even if disgruntled about liberals becoming tough on immigration and Islam, because the conservatives are still tougher yet on Islam and immigration.)
And the votes of their base. And their credibility. And their donors.
But what they’d gain would be…nothing. Because leftists pandering to the people already voting for the right-wing anti-immigrant parties will not win their votes, as we have repeatedly seen.
Germany is a federal republic like the US. This is a state level election with no federal election happening this fall.
It’s not a federal election but there are federal consequences. Germany also has a bicameral legislature with one body - the Bundesrat - having equal representation by state. (It’s not coequal like the US Senate but neither is it as weak as the House of Lords in the UK.) Like in the US Senate before the 17th Amendment, the state appoints their representatives. If the AfD wins there is likely a swap of the state appointed ministers in the Bundesrat.
So far, yes, that is what the polls say. Perhaps they fall short of a majority in Saxony-Anhalt, but it will be close. The majority for Germany overall is still a couple of years away, as per the election cycle. But who knows what will happen then? People are diillusioned, I am myself. They vote stupid. I try to vote clever, but it is hard. And complex. But they are still far away from a majority at the national level, no need to panic.
What @MysteriousCritter has written is not wrong either. Welcome to the board!
Theres a theory (forget the name) that its good when an extremist party wins government because they don’t actually improve quality of life for people, and then people see that they really aren’t that appealing as leaders.
Its kind of like letting your kids make bad decisions so they can learn from them rather than never letting them make a bad decision, which makes them want to do it more.
Of course if that were true, Trump wouldn’t have won a 2nd term.
The issue is that extremist parties are almost universally anti-democracy and will try to undermine democratic institutions once in power so they cannot be non-violently removed from power.
Which doesn’t apply in this case of a state in Germany, especially one currently dependent upon financial support from the central government.
Beyond lack of power at that level to accomplish the goal, the harms caused by their being in power are more immediate: those with higher skill set levels are most likely to be more upset over having AfD in power and are most able to move to another state, for example. That would be a more significant issue at a German state level than it is for the number of skilled workers leaving the US upset over Trump.
And to be clear: this is a party that is too extreme Right even for most other far Right parties in Europe.
They will merely blame any problem on inadequate financial support from a central government in the hands of their enemies.
And, judging from current world affairs, lots of people will believe them.
After the fall of the Berlin wall there was a considerable exodus of young people from the Eastern States, most pronounced in Saxony-Anhalt, where the inhabitants are now the oldest in Germany. They urgently need medical and nursing staff, as well as elderly carers. Despite that the AfD insists in their programm for Saxony-Anhalt that all non-German doctors, nurses, and care personnel for the elderly must leave immediately. That is a recipe for disaster. The German word is Pflegenotstand: elder care emergency. When they find out how stupid they are acting, it will be too late.
Of the people who left, the majority were young. More women than men left. The remaining rest consists mostly of old, sexually frustrated, broke old men. They also tend not to be the sharpest knifes in the drawer and behave and vote accordingly.
Another problem:
Stephan Kramer, head of Thuringia’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution, has warned of significant risks to informants should an AfD politician take over the Ministry of the Interior in a federal state. “In my view, the danger should be taken seriously,” Kramer told the *Handelsblatt*.
Admittedly, a Minister of the Interior “does not automatically receive the real names of undercover agents”. However, the problem lies in “the possibility of narrowing down areas of operation, access points and operational priorities through reports, instructions, staffing decisions or enquiries”.
The situation is particularly sensitive in states where the Office for the Protection of the Constitution operates organisationally as a department of the Ministry of the Interior. This applies to Saxony-Anhalt, which does not have its own independent State Office for the Protection of the Constitution.
From here (German and probably paywalled, translated with DeepL(dot)com):
“I believe that would be a worst-case scenario for everyone working in the field of constitutional protection in Germany,” Müller told the Tagesspiegel.
For then the AfD – which is classified as a confirmed far-right extremist organisation in Saxony-Anhalt – would “suddenly have access to all security-related files”.
[…]
Müller cited as potential risks the possibility of intelligence finding its way to Russia, as well as information about the AfD and the monitoring of that party. He is convinced that the security authorities would manage the flow of information to Saxony-Anhalt in such a way “that no secrets can be lost”.
Cooperation with foreign intelligence services could also suffer. “I therefore see a risk that we will no longer receive all the information from partner services, or at least only a reduced amount of information.”
Not a surprise, but dispiriting. Back when I was actively tracking German elections, I was looking at the growth of the AfD in Sachsen; here is 2014 vs 2019; the CDU basically collapsed here:
