I just watched the main BSW candidate in Sachsen-Anhalt interviewed by Tageschau, and twice the interviewer asked about the theoretical possibility of a coalition that led to him (the BSW leader) being named the state’s Minister President (both times the crowd behind the guy cheered). The BSW leader basically waffled and said that any planning was down the road (if I understood him correctly).
The AfD really does have a lot of leverage, unfortunately.
Trying to dig some I get to this poll which seems to confirm that voters are less voting FOR AfD positions than AGAINST everyone else. The translation is awkward but makes sense:
Every second person prefers his party out of conviction, but about the same number because of the disappointing offer of the others. Distance to political competition stands out as a motive in the AfD voter segment, while in turn persuasion motives particularly shape the supporters of the Greens and the Left.
Voting for the AfD because you don’t like the other parties is like drinking out of the toilet bowl in a bar because you don’t like the beer they serve. So either you (not YOU, of course) vote for fascists because you are one, or because you’re stupid - either way, you’ve destroyed everyone’s future in this already pretty destitute place. Congratulations.
Looking at the final results, it seems like BSW made it, so we‘ll see if they will play the kingmaker. The people of Sachsen-Anhalt are about to live in interesting times.
I’d say the BSW with the rest of the parties is the least likely option. I don’t know enough to guess whether the desire for sole majority rule or the fear of being blamed for the failures of government, or other factors such as economic demands or interpersonal conflicts, will prevent a BSW-AfD coalition even though they align on Russia and immigration at least moreso than other parties.
A couple of things to be aware of. First, if no coalition forms, the current government remains (according to the S-A constitution) as a ‘caretaker government’. I think the AfD will be pretty desperate to not let that happen.
Second, the election of the Ministerpraesident is incredibly complicated. Even after translating this blog post into English, it still makes my head hurt. Basically, they get two rounds to elect one; if that fails, then a third round occurs (the blog also argues that the existing ballot procedure may not be adequate for the later constitutional stage…because that stage requires a candidate to obtain a majority of votes cast, the ballot may need to permit MPs to vote explicitly Yes, No, or Abstain, rather than simply selecting a candidate).
Possible outcomes are:
People also use this notion that voting for the fascists was a protest vote in the US when people voted for Trump. It’s not, it’s a vote for fascism.
Explain a bit farther please:
Caretaker government - no majority for either AfD or the minority caretaker - BSW support needed to get anything passed. They don’t have to actually ever vote with AfD to demand their way or they sit on the ball? And they could at any vote decide to chink at the firewall and vote with AfD just not be in a coalition with them?
Seems best case for both BSW (huge power) and AfD (significant power and no responsibility for the shitshow that would be)?
At what point do new elections possibly get called? How is it decided by who?
The article linked quite a bit ago listed some Federal level choices from more or less here (and this seems like a miss for AfD in name only, for national rise concerns anyway) - how should Merz, his party, and the other parties, respond?
The article argued that the firewall strategy was backfiring and minimally it seems ineffective? Support for it seems to be softening. My first reaction reading that article was to think “Yeah that worked great for Chamberlain.” but is it time to reconsider the tactic?
Even if one accepts the polls I cited that voters voting AfD are voting what they consider a risk free pox on all your houses protest vote, it doesn’t seem like leadership they want to vote FOR is in the near term future so a distinction that doesn’t seem to make difference?
Again asked as an outsider with honest ignorance but with grave concern over the rise of the Far Right across the world, including Europe, and especially Germany as possibly the most significant member of the EU currently.
OK, so what things are behind this AfD trend? Bad economy? Immigration? pro-Russia sympathy? Some social quarrel? Are voters just anti-incumbent?
An option I didn’t list was after two failed Ministerpraesident votes the legislature could dissolve itself and call new elections, but according to Google that has happened exactly three times. So, I’d say incredibly low likelihood. The political backlash from the CDU dissolving the Parliament would (I think) be massive.
BSW could indeed sit back in a minority government and pick/choose when to play ball, but they could form a coalition and get their pick of cabinet positions, so there’s that. The one thing that confuses all this (for me) is that the guy I quoted earlier, de Masi (federal, not local, leader of BSW) said something definitive…let me go find it.
Okay, it was De Masi and the BSW’s federal co-chair, Amira Mohamed Ali, and they sent a letter to the AfD on June 26 that seems important if they intend the state party to stick to it. I’m trusting Google Translate here because this bit of German is too hard for me…
“Following the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, our electoral objective is to remove the current officeholders and replace them with non-partisan Minister-Presidents who govern in the state parliaments through changing majorities, with the involvement of the AfD.”
“We will under no circumstances support Mr. Schulze.”
“We will also not vote for an AfD Minister-President.”
“We want a non-partisan Minister-President who governs with changing majorities.”
“As a fundamental principle, we always decide on the substance, not on which party puts forward the motions.”
“You cannot permanently exclude a party that has more than 40 percent from parliamentary processes.”
“…with changing majorities … involving the AfD.”
A lot to unpack there, I have no idea what resolution this points to other than minority government being more likely, IF you believe that the BSW believes this.
Thank you for the explanations and context. Very appreciated.
You’re welcome. I didn’t know all the details, but I enjoy this kind of thing and went on a knowledge hunt.
Meanwhile, there are 218 municipalities in Sachsen-Anhalt, and the AfD won every damned one. I’ve mapped that below (I used to do this all the time, it was fun to resurrect those projects despite the ugly circumstances), and I’ve mapped who came in 2nd place in every municipality as well.
Let me know if that interests anyone and I’ll do it for future elections. Or maybe it’s too depressing…
So, admittedly, I’m only getting the most superficial Google-level of information, but if Saxony-Anhalt is a lot more right-wing than the rest of Germany, then does the rest of Germany really need to worry? They wouldn’t have to be concerned that the other regions would also flip to AfD too, just like how Donald Trump winning in Alabama doesn’t mean he would win in Massachusetts. Unless their panic is more about the “this has never happened before” angle.
The other thing that baffles me is how AfD can be pro-Russia. If AfD likes Nazis, then weren’t Nazis the biggest enemy of Russia, back in WWII?
Seems like “never” might be a weird choice, there.
Yes, please! Can you do it for Berlin Bezirk by Bezirk? I hope we can offer more diversity that Sax-An’t. Incredible that the SPD did not score second in a single municipality and they still are celebrating a better than expected result. That feels delusional to me. At least the CDU, well, Merz himself, has admitted this is the worst defeat they have suffered in decades. And the two Green municipalities, I guess those have universities there?
Of course it is depressing, but there’s no use in looking away.
Yes, we do have to worry. A lot. The polls put the AfD at around 30% at the federal (whole nation) level right now. The second party is the CDU at around 10% less, and the greens and the SPD are even further behind. It’s still three years until the next federal election, but the trend right now is pointing towards worse, that is, more votes for the AfD, not less. But right now, at least the most voted three parties after the AfD would have to form a coalition to govern. Three parties that are not natural allies. Perhaps even four, all over the political spectrum. The only thing they would have in common and agree on is to keep the AfD out of power. No good politics can come out of this. What would be their goal, their policy? Raise taxes, or lower them? Increase spending, or reduce it? For the military, for R&D, for education, or for what? Support Ukraine, or appease Russia and the USA? What do you think this would lead to one election further down the road?
ETA:
Are you trying to argue rationally with them? Forget it. It’s like your president: why does he like Putin? Makes no sense. Same here. Only they see a big difference between the Sowjet Union and Russia, one being bad, the other being good.
Perhaps someone with deep pockets should try to outspend Russia.
I can! I’ll be traveling the 20th but will look at it when I come back. I might even do it by Briefwahlbezirk, just for the fun of it.
Saxony and Thuringia are also both quite right-wing; but also to Pardel-Lux’s point, the whole country is sliding right. The AfD has only been around since 2013.
I’m not very good at geography, but yeah, those two Green blobs must be Magdeburg and Halle, Saale, both uni towns.
The more southeastern one is definitely Halle.
Thank God for that, but it is looking like the horseshoe closeths and a far leftist party may coalition with them to get them over the line:
There’s nothing sudden about this. The Red-Brown alliance is nearly as old as fascism itself.
I’m talking about Sahra Wagenknecht.