A simple example would be if the first two games are drawn 0-0, and the final game reaches a 1-1 score at some point. Both teams know they go through with that score.
Hell, if the first two games are any draw, the teams in the final game could always conspire to draw such that their “goals for” is greater than whatever the other team had scored.
Or for an even more ridiculous example, say the first two games were 0-0 draws, and in each game both teams got 1 yellow card. Then a 0-0 draw in the last game with no cards would send those teams through. That seems easy enough to arrange, as long as they don’t get cautioned for time-wasting :).
Actually, with only three group games, the chances are pretty high that there will be a tie that can’t be broken by the usual tiebreakers. If a team wins the first two group games by the same score, then any tie in the third game means those teams will be equal on goal differential and goals scored. Somebody really could get their team eliminated just by taking a yellow card in such a game.
Yeah I have to say I’m not feeling the three-team group stage. I think a slightly better scenario would be to continue with the current format and offer knockout-stage byes based on some mathematical formula that I’m sure somebody in FIFA’s Math Department can come up with.
Is the three-team group stage for 2026 etched in stone, or is it merely being talked about?
Not sure about etched in stone, but the bid by the combined CONCACAF countries assumes the number of games needed from doing it that way. Any change to a different structure would significantly alter the bid.