We’re in first place in our Confederation with two games to go, but are only guaranteed at least a playoff for the final spot against the last qualifier from South America. That could be Argentina, which has incedible talent. We play tomorrow in Tegucigalpa against Honduras, and a win would mean we are on to the WC. A tie means we are in pending a multitude of scenarios.
We play Costa Rica in D.C. next Wednesday, and depending on CR’s position, it could be a very tough game or a meaningless one.
I think, but am not certain, that we’d have to lose both games to finish fourth and be in the playoff. I’d put our odds of qualifying at around 80%, maybe better.