Italy will miss the World Cup for the first time in 60 years after today’s scoreless draw with Sweden.
The USA isn’t exactly a footballing power, but it had made the World Cup every time since 1990 and now it’s out.
Chile, winner of the last two Copa Americas, is out.
Argentina came extremely close to missing out.
The Netherlands is going to miss it.
Meanwhile we have Iceland, Panama, etc. going for the first time. China came within one goal of qualification. Is this the most unpredictable World Cup qualifying season there’s been in many years?
I think the Netherlands missing 2002 is the biggest upset in my watching experience. That team was probably more skilled than any of the teams that missed it this time around. But not the variety of teams that missed it.
I’m not sure it is particularly notable other than Italy missing out. The strength of the European region means that you are always on the edge of a crisis and it is true (and getting truer) that there are no easy games in world football. I’m sure next time round will see notable absences as well.
Italy are the only truly surprising teams failing qualification. Chile are a bit surprising, but CONMEBOL’s qualification process tends to expose weak teams because of the long, grueling nature of the competition, and it probably means Chile have simply out-performed their actual ability in the more recent Copa América tournaments.
The Netherlands are also a bit surprising, but not too much, since they’ve never managed a streak of more than 3 finals appearances. Might note that Chile have never been to more than two in a row.
Ghana also failed to qualify, for the first time since 1990.
The most surprising thing is that the U.S. failed to qualify due to a 2 - 1 loss to Trinidad and Tobago, a tiny country where soccer is not the most popular sport.
Culling information from this site, here is a list of countries that have been in the previous 3 world cup finals, the number of consecutive world cups they have been to, and whether they qualified this year or not.
Brazil (20) Yes – Note: they have been to all 20 prior to 2018
Germany (16) Yes
Italy (14) No
Argentina (11) Yes
South Korea (10) Yes
United States (7) No
Mexico (6) Yes
England (5) Yes
France (5) Yes
Japan (5) Yes
Portugal (4) Yes
Australia (3) Maybe
Ghana (3) No
Ivory Coast (3) No
Netherlands (3) No
Switzerland (3) Yes
So of the streaks greater than 3, only Italy and the US are not qualified. The others not qualified only have a streak of 3.
The failure of the US to qualify is shocking, but only because CONCACAF has been intentionally over-represented at the World Cup since the expansion to 32 teams, mostly so that the USA would not miss out, but wouldn’t be taking up the spot of a more soccer-centric country from Central America or the Caribbean. Please note that NO CONCACAF nation has ever gotten past the quarter-finals, not even México, which hosted the tournament twice (1970, 1986). So FIFA had tried desperately to help out soccer in the US by pretty much guaranteeing our participation in the finals every time; this year, we spurned our offered place rather dramatically.
3 teams made it out of the group last time, two the WC before. CONCACAF has earned their 3.5 slots more than Asia has their 4.5 or Africa their 5. Something like the top 2 qualifying and 3 and 4 get playoffs with other confederations would probably be better though.
And don’t ignore the Spanish or the Croats, not to mention the Argentines… There will be more agony shown in 90 minutes than a year’s worth of soap operas if any of those teams meet.
It continues to be a bit of sore point for Europe. Out of the top 30 teams rankings in the worlds (contentious I know but…) 19 of them of are currently European and yet out of the 32 places awarded only 13 are for UEFA teams.
There are multiple teams in Europe that are going to miss out on the world cup who are far better and more worthy of a place at the finals than either Honduras or Australia (both playing as we speak). But that only makes sense if the world cup were set up to be a true competition of the best 32 teams in the world. It isn’t. The constant expansion has been more about lining the pockets of FIFA than anything else. The more confederations battling for slots and hosting rights the more opportunities for bribery and corruption.
I doubt FIFA will allow it and even if they do the timeline doesn’t work. Hold it before the WC? Not enough time and the players would be exhausted after a long tournament. After? Who would care.
Also apart from the top tier Euro countries; they aren’t better than the top CONCACAF teams. And I’d just live to see those pampered softies have to play a competitive qualifying match in Azteca or in Central America.
Undoubtedly, you’re right, in that the system is unlikely to change because offering more places for World Cup qualification is a good bargaining chip for votes in FIFA, with all the corruption that goes along with it. Indeed, aren’t they about to fuck up a perfectly formed finals tournament (from the point of view of the number of teams in it - which, imo, is correct at 32) and expanding to 48 from 2026?
If it were up to me, I’d solve the issue that you point to above by having all the playoffs be transcontinental. Having a certain allocation for each confederation, and then draw the playoffs globally would mean, for instance, Africa could have more representatives than they’ve had previously, provided they knock out whomever they’re drawn against - which could be Italy, could be Vietnam, could be Burkina Faso or could be Peru. Whatever. Earn it on the field.
Italy were, in at least once sense, pretty unlucky in my view - they were only in the playoffs because they drew a group with France in it and finished second in a tight race with them. If they’d been in England’s group, they’d have walked it and England would have been in the playoff (and given our historical record against Sweden, England probably wouldn’t have qualified). Luck of the draw really (though they obviously can’t be given too many shoulders to cry on - they should still be able to have seen off the Swedes).
They would be tired going into this tourney and why would they want to risk injury?
I agree with international qualification. Put all FIFA members in a pot. Or even seed top half/bottom half and play home and away qualifiers until down to the final 32. Byes might be necessary first round to make it work.
Italy scored 0 goals against powerhouse Sweden in 180 minutes. They don’t deserve to go.
You can’t change the qualification set-up easily. Remember, the continental federations are going to protect their ability to run a tournament to select their representatives.
There are multiple teams in Europe who are “far better and more worthy of a place at the finals” than the European teams that qualified. Iceland/Northern Ireland v Italy/Netherlands as a starting point?
But that’s the luck of the draw as applied in sport … witness the glorious run of lower division clubs in the FA Cup.
It doesn’t mean, nor was it ever designed to be that the best 32 teams make the finals. If the winner is determined by whom is subjectively deemed “better” years before the event then 99.9% of us might as well stay at home. And interestingly these inferior and less worthy teams sometimes make it to the second round and rarely get thumped in the first round by the margin their rank & station would suggest.
In '74 Australia made the finals when there were only 16 teams. Netherlands were the best team in the world by daylight. Germany won.
