"The first generation to be poorer than the one that preceded it"

But that was not a “per household” stat (which would be the mean); it was median income. Fifty percent of households have a higher income, fifty percent a lower one. Much better measure IMO.

But in some ways this is true. If you were a medieval king with Type I diabetes, your gold would begin to seem about as helpful to you as it was to Midas. You’d trade it all in in a second to get access to a 21st century Rx for insulin, right?

And what makes this perspective more valid, I think, is that there are still pretty large numbers of people in the developing world (though a diminishing percentage to be sure) who are just destitute. They don’t have enough to eat, or just barely have enough. They don’t have running water, modern sanitation, electricity, etc., and so don’t have smart phones or even cell phones. Their children don’t go to school, or go only until age eight or ten. They farm using inefficient methods, maybe even pulling a plow themselves if they can’t afford beasts of burden much less a tractor.

So compared to those people, the “poor” people in, for instance, the American South have really accelerated into a much more privileged position. Whereas just a couple generations ago, there were plenty of Southerners who were pretty close to that level of what we now think of as “Third World” poverty. Johnny Cash grew up in a family in Arkansas that sounds dirt poor, until you hear about how much worse his sharecropping neighbours had it.

John Henry Faulk told a story on NPR in the 1970s that has now become a yearly fixture on the network, that gave a similar view of Southern poverty at Christmastime that existed only decades ago.

Now this is an interesting point. Although the house call wouldn’t be of much help if you were suffering from a malady that day’s technology could not cure but which nowadays it could.

Still, another example I’d give is how older homes and schools have all this incredible, detailed wood and tile work that you would almost never see in a new home built today. It would just be too expensive, except for the very rich, to pay people for all that detailed work. But that in itself is a sign of a more prosperous society, where people’s skilled handiwork cannot be had for a song.

No it is not–that is my exact point. I can’t find quotes directly from Douglas Coupland’s highly zeitgeisty 1991 novel, but I did find this article, from the European Wall Street Journal, discussing it:

My initial complaint was about generational myopia, a lack of historical perspective. Yet this writer is aware of the deja vu of it all, and *still *makes the (IMO) error of saying “well, okay: it was premature in 1991, but *this *time it is really true about this generation of youth”. Bollocks, I say.

There was a story I heard on NPR just recently that made a very similar point. I was only half listening at first, so I’m not sure who they quoted, but it was someone from a bygone era. This author observed, to illustrate how poverty is relative, something like “no man would go out in public without a linen shirt”. Yet not too many years before that, linen shirts were available only to the very rich. By that day and age, to be unable to afford one would mark someone as very wretched indeed, even if they were able to buy other clothing that kept them warm and modestly covered, and had plenty of food and shelter.


*As a side note, this is a mischaracterisation of Generation X, that I think is being made by the WSJ writer rather than originating with Coupland. In general, GenXers were indeed the “baby bust”, the smallest generation of modern times, but they were by and large not the children of the boomers but of the “Silents”. It is the Millennials, originally called “echo boomers”, who are boomers’ offspring, and they are as a result a very large generation themselves. (Boomers, just due to their sheer numbers, would have had to be the most amazingly unfertile generation imaginable to give birth to a “baby bust” generation, and that is not how it went down.) The author should have referred to boomers as GenXers’ “predecessors” rather than “parents” there.

ETA:

That is clear from the graph. But my comparison point was 1996, 18 years ago and considered a strong economic situation at the time.

You can’t eat phones.

I have lived long enough to see plenty of booms and busts, but its different now. I have a kid in college and another one about to start. They are smart, sensible, hard-working kids. I am seriously worried about their future.

Don’t be so fast to say bollocks.(*)
It was true in 1991, except for a unique historical event. (i.e. Bill Gates and Steven Jobs started selling a machine that changed the world.) Such events are unpredictable, and occur only once in a century or two–they do not occur every decade or every generation.
You mock the guy who says “okay, this time it’s really true”…But it was true then, and is true again today. But back then, we just happened to get lucky, and there was a dot-com boom.
Today, there is no reason to expect us to get lucky again.(Unless you expect another science-fiction fantasy to come true and revolutionize the economy and human society as profoundly as the internet has done.)

Times have changed, and this generation will be poorer than their parents. They will have more toys…but less money and less personal security (financially); may Og help them when they retire in 2065.

*(off topic, but fun:
“bollocks” is a wonderful expression, by the way. :slight_smile: American English has no equivalent. We Yanks need a word that is tougher than 'nonsense", but not as rude as “bullshit”.)

Nitpick: If you think “median” is not a “stat” then you’re using a weird dictionary.

In any event, the underlying point should be clear: Median personal income would be above 50% and below 50% of persons’ incomes. Median household stat will be affected by demographic or social changes which affect household size or composition.

Indeed I do. Although as discussed in my favourite SDMB thread ever, I’m not sure how it will play out in the short term. In the long term, and hopefully the medium term as well, I think it will result in a higher standard of living for everyone.

P.S. Never mind the bollocks. :wink:

ETA:

:confused: Where did you get that I was saying it was not a stat? I was only saying that it should not be characterized as “per household” because that implies mean rather than median. Both are, of course, “stats”; but if the rich get richer while everyone else stays the same, the mean income will misleadingly rise while the median will not.

OK, the quibble was about my usage of “per.” :smack:

But you wrote:

The fact is that if a large number of low-income young people move back in with their parents, then the number of households will drop and average household income (both mean and median) will rise. And that rise will tell us more about household composition than about income. That was the whole point of the particular sub-debate.

Are such effects affecting the “median household income”? I don’t know. Even Googling for “average household size” won’t be enough to learn the answer. Why? Because statistics by() household depend on such demographic or social factors in a way other stats would not.* That was my point.

(* Note the careful avoidance of “per.” :cool: )

Pensions began disappearing years ago. Few Gen Xers have pensions today either. It is a relic of Boomer Time that went away for most people just as quickly as it became established.

401Ks began in 1980. If anything, they’re something the current generation has that the previous ones didn’t.

Affordable higher education and affordable real estate are available. You can’t go to Harvard or live in Manhatten, but they’re available. Community Colleges are a good deal and provide a comparable education to the first two years of a four-year school. And living somewhere that has reasonable real estate prices doesn’t mean living in the sticks.

You seem to be saying that things aren’t bad for young people because things aren’t completely hopeless. No one is saying that college is completely unattainable or that you can’t get any job whatsoever. What they are saying is that compared to 20, 30 years ago, these things are harder to attain. And they are, in almost every way.

I look at my own famiy and see this. My neices are a ton more sophisticated and intelligent than their parents (and me) and their grandparents were when we were their age. Yet they’ve got serious student debt to look forward to, while the rest of us had generous scholarships and low-cost tuition.

My father was poor. Grew up in a family of eleventy-billion children, all crammed in a two-bedroom bungalow. But almost all of his siblings escaped poverty because they were able to get good employment in factories. After a year of work, they could buy a house, a car, and get married. They weren’t headed to Martha’s Vineyard, but at least they weren’t poor.

How many 19-year-olds are buying houses now? Hell, even if the 19 year old has a good paying job, it probably would be smarter for her to rent. Because chances are that job isn’t going to around in two or three years, and she’ll need to be ready to move with a quickness.

Back in the day, a college degree practically guaranteed you’d never have to sweep a floor or drop french fries. Only people who had made poor choices could expect to find themselves in this situation. But that’s not true now. Plenty of smart, conscientious people are scrambling to take “any job”. The effect cascades throughout the economy, into future generations. No, it’s not just a “blip”.

Millenials may feel a bit buffered from the harsh realities because they still have their parents’ umbrella hanging over them. But in a few years, when Millenials move into their 30s and 40s and start having kids of their own and start worrying about the children’s prospects, it will become apparent to everyone paying attention how much “things have changed”. It won’t be apocalyptical. People will adapt just as they always have. But it will be noticeable to those who have good memories.

Are people inheriting less now, too? Older folks are living longer and, at least in America, all their fortunes are going to years and years of health care and assisted living. And the pensions they were going to get are gone or withered away.

Kinda how it is in my family…I mean, no one ever inherited a dime before because everyone was poor. But my grandpa just died and left a good bit of money but that means that grandma can stay in a very nice retirement home.

I’m cool with that, I love my grandma and am glad she’s taken care of. But I don’t see how people can leave money to the next generation if they are staying healthy (and then not so healthy) well after retirement.

But how much of that is an actual rigging of the system and how much of that is Boomers that refuse to retire? Due to the small size of Gen X, job growth will loop back around again, and probably soon. I look at my own profession, librarian, and I see that that mass retirement wave that was predicted a decade ago is finally starting to happen. Positions are opening and pure demographics ensure that they’ll continue to open up over the next few years.

The oldest Millenials (AKA Gen Y) are 33. They are established. They do have kids. It’s not hopeless, but I think these is a lot of unnecessary gloom and doom because the older folks have repeated these dire predictions forever.

Older People Are Not Taking Jobs From Younger People

It used to be that companies would hire you to fill a position. Nowadays, more and more of them are hiring for a task. Once you build a website for them, or design a database for them, or write an SOP for them, they can let you go.

Sure, you can get a job as a temp. Contrast the salary of a temp with a salary of a full-time permanent employee, though.

A lot of older employees are sitting in positions that will no longer exist after they retire. Their duties will be distributed amongst the remaining staff, and anything left will be delegated to an intern or a part-time employee.

They didn’t repeat these predictions back in the 1940s, 50s, or 60s. During the recessions of the 70s and the 80s, you might have heard people bemoaning the fate of their children. But the recessions of the 70s and 80s pale in comparison to the Great Recession. Admitting as much is NOT doom and gloom. There’s nothing wrong with developing a mindset that is appropriate for today’s realities and recognizing that what worked back then doesn’t work now.

Young people can still “have it all.” They just can’t expect to get it “all” by copying their parents.

Poverty is relative. All our cars are more reliable today. The true test is if your parents could afford a Cadillac (or whatever high class car) and you can afford only a Camry. If you can afford a Lexus, then you are richer. When I was in college the mark of having some surplus money was a good stereo system. Now it is an iPAD. Or gaming computer.

The stereo I had in college was far superior to the console record player (which played 78s) my parents had as adults. I never took that to mean I was better off.
I’m sure many people with stuff would gladly give it up for secure jobs with benefits. I’m really fed up with the “the poorest of the poor are better off than the kings of England since they have refrigerators and the rats that run through their bedroom probably aren’t carrying the plague” .argument. That’s not the way people evaluate wealth.

Let alone, that many are still on their parent’s/family’s plan…

Here is a table of tuition from 1972 to today in 2013 in 2013 dollars. Both private and public four year colleges have tripled in price, 2 year colleges have more than doubled.
There were 2 year colleges in 1973, one close to me, but no one went to save money. People went for continuing education or for trades or because they were too dumb to get into a four year school.

I didn’t go to Harvard but I went to MIT which cost just as much, and my father was able to pay for it, and he wasn’t rich. I did get a loan one year, but he decided it wasn’t worth the bother. My kids have no debt because I paid for them, but I’m better off than my father so I could afford it.

As for 401Ks, we’ll see how they work out. The statistics don’t look too good for most people. There are some real benefits, especially if you change jobs, but on the other hand pensions can’t be spent if you are in a bind leaving you nothing to retire on. I’m not sure they are a win for the average person.

Affordable real estate, if your career requires you to live in a large city can be hard to find. A lot of vocations have their careers centered in areas with a high cost of living. Unless you want to commute four hours a day.

The point with pensions is people don’t get them. Boomers got them, then they were phased out. Not only are private pensions gone but public pensions seem underfunded meaning this generation has to pay more taxes and get less in return for it.
Not all two year college transfers well. When I tried that (moving from my states flagship 2 year college to the four year) a lot did not transfer.

What I have a hard time understanding is the willingness to get into 100k of debt for a degree or job skill that is not very marketable even in the best of circumstances. People constantly moan about debt but I don’t hear about people motivated to save if things are so gloomy. A lot of people are living with their parents longer but it seems like only a minority of them use the opportunity wisely.

My wife is a millenial, and has been continuously employed since she was 15. She paid for her undergrad herself, working two jobs and even when she graduated she stayed at one of her fulltime jobs for a year in case her new career didn’t pan out. After several years there, she went back for her Master’s which was paid for by a grant she earned. And she never had to go into debt for an education which has paid dividends for her. Her sister, also a millenial, did in fact buy her first house at the height of the housing bubble. She then rented it out while she and my wife continued to live with their parents.

Some people might think they got “lucky” but in my experience we make our own luck. Both their parents immigrated from Mexico and my wife was not just the first in her family to get a Master’s but the first to go to college PERIOD. She had no family or friends to help her and had to figure it all out on her own. For them, they are doing considerably better than their parents’ generation and are achieving it without many privileges other millenials have.

As a 33 year old, I have seen two major changes since I first entered the job market.

One is that the barrier between “entry-level” and “mid-career” has become harder to negotiate, and requires more and more expensive and time consuming pre-reqs. If you aren’t getting an advanced degree, doing prestigious internships, and applying to junior leader programs, you are going to have a tough time ever making that leap. And all of this requires time doing low or no pay activities. Technical skills are no longer as helpful, as skilled personnel are hired via contract, with no path to management. So you can spend a decade in the trenches, but your experience may be useless for advancement.

At our age, my peers have negotiated that pretty well, as they have strong professional networks and experience behind me. We spent our early 20s in the trenches, and our late 20s going back for qualifications after we hit the ceiling. But I feel bad for all of the 22 year olds who are competing for internships and grad school slots against seasoned professionals.

The other change is the solidification of the fact that to have a career means to be always looking for work. We work on lots of contracts and limited term positions. When we get real jobs, we often have to change branches or organizations if we want to advance. With luck, all that movement can sometimes lead to rapid advancement. But it also comes with little security and the constant threat of unemployment and, worst of all, fear that our skills will become outdated.

Kids today are bright and hard working. I see kids out of high school with excellent resumes, and entry level applicants with multiple big name internships. The days of the summer job at the ice cream store and college work study shelving books at the library are over. The ones I feel bad for are the kids without the guidance to manage their careers aggressively from middle school.

It can be challenging to be the “first”, but there are also advantages. For one thing, you aren’t constantly being advised by parents and relatives who have “made it”, so you feel freer to take risks and be resourceful. This increases your likelihood of failure, because you don’t have anyone to guide you and hold your hand. But it also liberating too. You can write your own rules.

If everyone in your family went to expensive colleges and studied estoeric fields and went on to well-paying jobs, this is the reality you know. The advice you hear will be a lot different from the advice someone like your wife hears. Your wife was likely pressured to be pragmatic and study something that will be marketable. If her parents had been humanities professors, she might have grown up with a different mindset.

It’s easy to blame young people for not doing X, Y, and Z. But young people are taught by old people. They inherit the values and expectations of their parents and grandparents. So it doesn’t make sense to make this out to be another instance of “kids today!” It’s societal.

It’s not just that , though. It’s not “the kids” fault, but I know a lot of people who themselves went to affordable public colleges and universities, studied something marketable and graduated with little or no debt who did not encourage their kids to do the same thing. I’m not really sure why- maybe the parents see it as a status thing. But those kids graduating with anywhere from $50K-$100K are not going to do as well as their parents. They’re probably not even going to do as well as my kids, who will have no college debt.

You picked a strange year to claim things weren’t scary because 1973 was the start of a major recession that sent unemployment up to 9%, interest rates skyrocketing, and and the US GDP fell by 3.7%. Lots of people were damn scared about money.

My father’s told me plenty of stories about how in those days he’d be up nights terrified, trying to figure out how to pay the bills. Times could be very scary indeed. Your definition of “no one” apparently excludes many people.

I don’t think there’s any doubt that there is a huge gap between how young people are prepared for the workforce today and what the workforce requires. Just a few posts up even sven talks at length about how it’s hard to get good jobs if you don’t have an advanced degree - but of course that assumes you have to have an office job. You can make excellent money driving a truck, a skill that takes maybe a month and a thousand dollars to get. Wanna make $50,000 a year to start and never be unemployed longer than a day? Make $60000 and up within a couple of years? It’s there for you… and yet the transportation industry cannot find people to drive trucks because nobody wants to do it.