House just passed the Ukrainian aid bill. Now all eyes turn to the question: Can Johnson survive this vote?
I must be missing out on something but I don’t see why Johnson would or could be toppled as a result of this vote. If the majority of Republicans in the House voted to pass the bill, that means they wanted Ukraine aid to pass, and if the MAGA anti-Ukraine faction is a minority, they’d have no means to topple Johnson.
For Johnson to be toppled would require a large number of House Republicans to, in essence, say, “I voted for Ukraine aid to pass, but now I want Johnson ousted for putting the Ukraine bill up for a vote to begin with.”
Eh, I kinda wrote it tongue-in-cheek, but the guy does have three foam-mouthed R’s after him now because of it, so we will see what happens.
Only eight Republicans was enough to topple McCarthy. It’s a matter of whether Democrats will vote in favor of the motion to vacate the chair. If they all did, it would only take three Republican voting in favor for the motion to pass.
Gotcha. Well, in that case, let’s hope the D’s are astute enough to realize anyone who replaces Johnson is likely to be considerably worse.
It took 6 months of foot-dragging for Johnson to tee up aid for Ukraine, but his successor might never approve such aid.
So where’s MTG’s privileged motion now that Johnson passed Ukraine aid on the floor? This was supposed to be her redline. Cat got her tongue?
No, MTG has suggested her colleagues take advantage of the upcoming break to go home and talk to their constituents. Green’s co-idiot, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, made his way into Profiles in Doubletalk, by standing firm that Johnson should be removed but noting that Johnson should instead do the honorable thing and resign so the Republicans could pick a new Speaker without having to go through the live TV humiliation of the last two times.
Hopefully you are correct. You may be.
In general, I question political analysis focused on a politician’s personality, as I interpret your post.
After today, Johnson is increasingly unpopular with his party’s base. If Johnson is seen to keep his speakership with Democratic Party assistance, this will increase. And, checking, I see that Johnson already has a 2024 primary election opponent coming at him from his right in an extremely GOP Deep South district. So Johnson, regardless of his inner personal preferences, will have to pivot back to being a right wing extremist in order to defeat his Louisiana opponent. He can’t afford to continue to be seen as cooperating with Democrats for long if he desires re-election. And he does.
Prediction: Before long, Johnson will pivot back towards the Republicans who are trying to end his speakership. Democrats will feel betrayed.
P.S. Louisiana’s confusing House election system is that there is a jungle primary on November 5. If one candidate gets 50 percent or more, they win. Otherwise, there is a December runoff. So far, there is no Democrat running, so it looks like all will be decided on November 5.
You wouldn’t think it was possible, but I believe Massie is actually dumber than MTG. I’m surprised his brain is advanced enough to support motor functions. The fact that he can make a fist or scratch his nose is astounding.
Josh Morott is not a serious challenge to Mike Johnson. Among Morott’s campaign planks:
- I will fight for each state to have their own F22 to be used by that state for defensive measures.
- I will fight for each state to have its own missile defense to include Iron Dome.
Morott refers to the F22 Raptor fighter jet.
Dumber people have climbed to higher offices.
Unfortunately, this will be true forever more.
I can’t see any Democratic House member thinking that the passage of this legislation is any kind of sign of future cooperation from Johnson.
The major of Republicans actually voted AGAINST the bill. It passed because every Democrat voted for it. Here is a table summarizing the votes by party:
votes by party|PARTY|YEAS|NAYS|PRESENT|NOT VOTING|
|Republican|101|112|1|4|
|Democratic|210|0|0|3|
|Independent|0|0|0|0|
|Total|311|112|1|7|
I don’t see it as personality based, but practicality based. There’s no point in helping the guy you can’t work with, who refuses to go against MAGA until his hand is absolutely forced.
If the guy is remotely smart, he made a backroom deal with at least some Dems over the Ukraine and the other bills to help him survive any Speaker challenge. It’s something McCarthy refused to do.
And, since Biden said he would not sign any split bills, he can push the idea that he made Biden eat his words when he likely will sign these.
Sure, he’ll have to pivot to the right to deal with his challenger. But that pivot these days seems far more PR for social media than anything else. That’s where the MAGA faction actually lives. That portion of the base cares more about what you say on Twitter than they do anything actually done on Capital Hill.
I agree with you that this is entirely possible but it’s pretty clearly worth it to get the Ukraine aid passed. I don’t even think it’s necessarily a betrayal even, I expect the GOP speaker not to make any kind of deal like this with the dems except oit of absolute desperation (as is the case here).
This. Most probably, this also applies to Gaetz, who may have received false assurances about his ethics investigation. McCarthy was a weasel.
Moral: The ideology of the House Speaker is secondary. Nancy Pelosi and Tip O’Neil hailed from 2 of the most liberal districts in the country: I doubt whether that mattered much, beyond the important fact that their districts were safe. The key consideration is the Speaker’s diplomatic skills, and one aspect of diplomacy is not being a lying sack of shit whose word can’t be trusted. Losing McCarthy and passing over Jim Jordan was a win for the country.
Props to Johnson for getting aid to Ukraine through the House. Because of the character of the caucus he leads and their thin margin he remains a weak leader: the Ukraine bill passed by an overwhelming 311-112, and that was the closest of the 4 aid votes (the others were Israel, Taiwan, Gaza). If these were normal times, the Ukraine would have sailed through last Fall. As it is a majority of Republicans narrowly voted it down, 112-101.
Slava Ukraini.
I’m not talking about personality; I’m talking about actions by McCarthy and Johnson.
McCarthy apparently made scads of promises within the GOP caucus to get the Speakership, even though some of those promises were unrealistic. His m.o. was to rely solely on GOP support, and decline any attempt at cross-aisle negotiations. He was also prepared to break deals he himself had made. And yet, he was outraged that the Dems didn’t support him when his own caucus fractured and voted against him. But why should the Dems support someone who had shown such disdain for any bi-partisanship?
Johnson, on the other hand, appears to be willing to work with the Dems, and stick by the deal. Who knows how long that will last? These funding bills may have been so important that he was willing to talk across the aisle, and he many then revert to a more “never talk with the Dems” approach. But in light of him being willing to defy his caucus to get something the Dems wanted, they may consider it in their interests to support him on a motion to vacate, unlike McCarthy.
I don’t see that as personality, but just the basic question of trust: “Can we trust this guy to work with us?” A lot of politics is built on personal relations, and trusting someone will keep their promise is a big part of it.
@suranyi: Fixed that for you:
Votes by Party
| PARTY | YEAS | NAYS | PRESENT | NOT VOTING |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 101 | 112 | 1 | 4 |
| Democratic | 210 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 311 | 112 | 1 | 7 |
Really? Name 1 Individual. Oh, wait a minute.