The Great Ongoing Revolving Speakership of the 118th Congress {Mike Johnson is new speaker as of 2023-10-25}

Yep, and the GOP tried to cut the VA.

Undermine Medical Care for Veterans: Cutting funding by 22 percent would mean 30 million fewer veteran outpatient visits, and 81,000 jobs lost across the Veterans Health Administration—leaving veterans unable to get appointments for care including wellness visits, cancer screenings, mental health services, and substance use disorder treatment.

Someone needs to tell Mike Johnson to stay away from high windows when MTG’s around.

What would be awesome is she does it and between Republicans retiring before the vote, Republicans determined to resign this session voting “present”, Republicans determined not to run for re-election voting “present”, and Republicans saying “I’m too old for this shit.” voting “present” they lose 6 votes and MTG’s motion to vacate causes Jeffries to be Speaker.

Would that happen though? I was only semi-serious about the scenario where the Democrats backstab Johnson. It’s my understanding that Democrats have a “gentleman’s understanding” type situation where they will conveniently be away from the House on the day of any such vote, or simply vote present*. That makes any threat from MTG trying to remove Johnson from the speakership doomed to fail.

ETA: This is just my best guess from how things happened. Maybe the agreement is that Democrats will vote present if there’s only enough Republicans to throw the Speakership into a nobody can win it situation, but would vote Jeffries if they somehow get an actual majority.

If the Pubs have only 212 votes how do you NOT take advantage of stealing the Speakership and making the MAGAs in the House look even stupider than they already do?

They have enough votes to ensure he gets kicked out. It doesn’t take many Republicans joining them for that, and there appear to be some Republicans willing to do that.

They don’t have enough votes to take the position themselves, which would require at least 3 Republican defectors voting for a Democrat to guarantee it. They’re separate votes.

As a bloc, they appear to be uninterested in chaos, unlike their colleagues across the aisle.

Comrade Greene? More like Oberst-Gruppenführer Greene. :crazy_face:

IIRC, it is only one vote as of recently. I could be wrong.

Still separate votes.

There’s the motion to vacate, which, if it has the votes to pass, would kick Johnson out of the position and lead to a Speaker Pro Tempore, whose first and primary order of business would be to hold a vote on a new Speaker.

There was a debate the last time whether the Speaker Pro Tempore could conduct any other business at all, which, until recently, was only a hypothetical question unlikely to ever matter.

I suppose it is theoretically possible the Republicans have chosen or will choose a Democrat to serve in that role, but, in practice, this is quite unlikely.

The key word there is “stealing”.

Right now, the Democrats have accomplished a whole lot of what they wanted to accomplish, while blocking the worst of what the MAGAts wanted, and they did it while playing by the rules, and honestly trying to work with the more moderate Republicans. That’s a huge win for them, and they still hold the moral high ground, which is also a win for them.

We’re not too far off from an election, and this win-win makes a great narrative for the Democrats. Spin the election as not being Democrat vs. Republican, but Sensible People vs. MAGAt crazies like Greene and perverts like Gaetz.

But if they pull a stunt to “steal” the Speaker’s chair? That’s just handing the MAGAts a custom made narrative of their own. “We didn’t lose on all these important issues because we’re idiots, we lost because those Demonrats cheated! They stole the Speakership that was rightly ours! They illegally voided the democratic will of you, the voters, who said it should have been a Republican in that spot! Don’t let them steal it again now!”

Why give them such a big gift so close to the election? Take the huge win, and start working towards winning the election on that basis.

Is it though if the Pubs only have 212 members voting at the time? The Dems can say they voted for Jeffries like they always have. Not their fault the Pubs gave the Speakership away.

Relevant to the current conversation, the next special election for a vacant seat is scheduled for April 30, which should return a Democrat to the very blue NY 26th District which will shave Republicans’ margin even further.

But Democrats electing Jeffries due to disaffected/retiring Republicans is just fantasy.

That’s a distinction that a lot of people just won’t get. Why hand them an easy narrative that covers their asses for them? As funny as it would be to pull this off, what actual benefit does this provide for the Dems?

The Speakership until January 3, 2025.
Let’s say the vote starts out with Dems voting for Jeffries, then a couple of "present"s come from the Pub side. Are you suggesting the Dems should start voting “present”?
Lastly, what would be the impact on Dem and center voters if they know that the House Dems threw away the chance to have the Speakership?

And, in the vanishingly unlikely event that Jeffries becomes speaker, the poison pill rule remains in effect. There’d be a motion to vacate the following day.

My concern would be if MTG keeps bringing up vacate motions every 3 days. Sure, the first ten times, it might fail, but at what point can she do damage through sheer attrition?

If the GOP loses one more member in the House (the house would then be tied, if my count is correct), it certainly would be fair. Then the Dems would get rid of that stupid rule that McCarthy was forced to agree to.

Minor quibble - he wasn’t forced to do anything. He chose to embrace the poison pill of his own free will in order to get what he desired most. And thereby proved his own weakness, with the inevitable tragicomedy to follow.

It is currently 218R / 212D /4 vacant

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2024/house-control-republican-margin/
Departures from the House have whittled down the Republican caucus from 222 to 218 as of Friday, meaning the party can only afford to lose two members and still pass legislation when everyone is attending and voting.

Rep. Ken Buck (Colo.), announced earlier this month that Friday would be his last day in Congress. Now, Rep. Mike Gallagher (Wis.) has said that he will also leave Congress on April 19, leaving the Republican caucus with only one spare vote to pass legislation.

https://www.axios.com/2024/03/22/house-republicans-mike-gallagher-resign
House GOP will face one-vote majority as another Republican plans exit

But maybe the GOP has gotten a new member in? Or one of the retirees didnt go?

I got my data from here. Looks like it does not account for Gallagher.

The House itself still shows him as a member and his webpage is still active.