Quinnipiac swing state poll of Colorado, Iowa, and, Virginia. Clinton trail Bush, Rubio, and Walker in all three states.
Colorado: Bush vs. Clinton Bush 41, Clinton 36 Bush +5
Colorado: Walker vs. Clinton Walker 47, Clinton 38 Walker +9
Colorado: Rubio vs. Clinton Rubio 46, Clinton 38 Rubio +8
Virginia: Bush vs. Clinton Bush 42, Clinton 39 Bush +3
Virginia: Walker vs. Clinton Walker 43, Clinton 40 Walker +3
Virginia: Rubio vs. Clinton Rubio 43, Clinton 41 Rubio +2
Iowa: Bush vs. Clinton Bush 42, Clinton 36 Bush +6
Iowa: Walker vs. Clinton Walker 45, Clinton 37 Walker +8
Iowa: Rubio vs. Clinton Rubio 44, Clinton 36 Rubio +8
Should Clinton pack it in? How close is the DNC to pulling its support for Clinton? I’m sure these questions will be answered shortly.
Of course she won’t pack it in, nor should she. But it is still evidence that she continues to lose support. Although I’ll have to see at least one more poll before I believe that Republicans have gained that much on her in those states.
Those swing state polls are genuinely worrying for Hillary. Beyond the headline numbers, around 55-60% in the three states don’t think she is honest. If people don’t trust you it’s very difficult to turn that around in a campaign.I would like to see more polls including Ohio and Florida but if these numbers hold up Hillary is in serious trouble.
Yup, this one surprisingly weak. Especially in context of general election PPP polls that put her +5 over the main GOP rivals (pretty much as she has been). Hard to see the swing states being 10 to 15 different than the national numbers.
Actually it is nice to see all agreeing this time that one poll that gives results that are not consistent with what everyone else is seeing nationally should be handled with healthy doses of skepticism until and unless verified by other houses. It is not impossible that she has specifically cratered in swing states only; it just seems improbable.
Anyone know Quinnipiac’s track record and history of volatility?
Hillary’ favorability rating is also on a worrying trajectory. The latest is at 44%. While it was always likely to come down from the 60% she enjoyed a few years back, she probably hoped it would settle down at around 50% which it appeared to do for a while in 2014. In the last four months it has continued to slide. It is now lower than it ever was for Obama in 2011/12.
Her Republican opponents have even worse favorability ratings but they are relatively unknown quantities, even Jeb Bush, and have more of an opportunity to re-define themselves in a general election campaign.
Actually, some Republicans are equal or better than Clinton now. Clinton is now -5. Rubio is -4. Walker is -5. Paul is -5. Carson actually has the best favorability, since he’s the only guy who is in positive territory.
Again, despite that WaPo/ABC poll that put HRC surprisingly at 52% favorability, mid to upper 40s is where she as an actively competing candidate will likely settle into. Not too many people can actively run and keep at 50% plus. Fantasizing that the "no opinions/don’t know"s will overwhelmingly fall into “favorable” is nice stuff to consider in private (while surfing sites that your clear before your spouse sees them) but not based in any reality. She has more people liking her than any other candidate running has … and more disliking her than most of the others as well.
Seriously though, one wonders if the Trump-and-Tea-Party cadre are starting to turn off the GOP non-crazy base. Who are unlikely to vote Clinton (or Sanders etc) but might stay home.
Obama was consistently at +25 during his 2008 run. Often as good as +30, and in the 60s. In 2012, he was consistently over 50% during the campaigning stages. HIs job approval was in the mid-40s, but his favorability was higher:
Mitt Romney spent most of the 2012 campaign in positive territory as well, although he went through a really ugly stretch during the primaries. He was back to positive territory once he clinched the nomination though:
Most candidates for President actually do maintain at least positive approval and do often get above 50%. An exception is GWB, but even he had more positive polls than negative polls heading into his elections:
Today’s news turned out to be nearly nothing, but this is just a sign that the campaign has started, and it won’t be a cakewalk for Hillary. That chart covers several years, so it’s hardly a “free fall”… in any case, I’m hopeful that her late decline in the polls may be balanced by the rise of Trump.
We’ll see. I’m still quite optimistic. Most of my optimism is based on the same thing it’s been based on for the last few years – the inability of any potential Republican candidate to get through a Republican presidential primary without making himself unacceptable in a general election. Add Trump in the mix and I’m feeling even better.
Especially in context of general election PPP polls that put her +5 over the main GOP rivals (pretty much as she has been). Hard to see the swing states being 10 to 15 different than the national numbers.