The highly specific, verifiable prediction thread about Trump, Biden, etc

[Deeg]

1. Trump will spend the next four years teasing his supporters at a run in 2024. He will use this to have adoring rallies and make money. When the time comes he’ll find some excuse not to run.
2. He will claim to his dying tweet that he was robbed in the 2020 election.
3. He will be indicted but never show up in court or be found guilty. His lawyers will delay delay delay until Trump is dead or they somehow settle. (Can that be done in criminal cases?)
4. His children will have no political career at the Federal level.

[Hari_Seldon]

1. 2021 will be a bad year for the stock market. The Munchkin is doing his damnedest to arrange that.
2. The Ds will lose the House in 2022 (and not take over the senate).
3. Harris will run in 2024–and lose.
4. A moderate R will run in 2024–and win.
   Oh, and Trump will never concede nor attend the inauguration.

That’s all I got.

[BobLibDem]

• DJT will be in Florida during the inauguration and tweet something vile at noon

• At least one of Biden’s cabinet choices will not be confirmed

• When Pence announces the winner of the Electoral Collage, a fly will land on his hair

• Melania files for divorce before March 2021, possibly even in January. She will be in NY during the inauguration.

• DJT will be indicted by NY State as well as the SDNY. He will be convicted and serve time.

• Bill Barr will also go to prison

• The 2024 race will be Don Jr vs Harris.

• Democrats win the Senate in 2022 and gain seats in the House

• Russia will seize a little more of Ukraine

• The vaccines will prove effective and life gets back to normal by May.

• Kim Jong Un croaks for real and is succeeded by his sister who gets assassinated.

[CairoCarol]

@Hari_Seldon

2021 will be a bad year for the stock market. The Munchkin is doing his damnedest to arrange that.

Can you add something to make that verifiable - like, “on Dec 31, 2021 the stockmarket will be below 20,000” or something to that effect? Otherwise, it’s impossible to say whether you are right or wrong - it could rise, but some might say it had a bad year if it underperformed expectations.

[Railer13]

I’ve got a couple:

1. Stephen Breyer will resign his Supreme Court seat sometime in 2021, and Biden’s nominee will be confirmed by the Senate in a surprisingly non-contentious hearing and overwhelming vote.
2. The GOP nominee in 2024 will be a fight between Mike Pompeo and Larry Hogan, and Hogan will win the nomination.
3. Larry Hogan will defeat Harris in 2024 (ninja’d twice by @Hari_Seldon)

[CairoCarol]

@BobLibDem

Bill Barr will also go to prison

I’ll predict that Bill Barr will not go to prison (by Dec 30, 2022), but golly gee I hope you are right and I’m wrong.

[Akaj]

@BobLibDem

• The vaccines will prove effective and life gets back to normal by May.

Tangent: I was just thinking about this yesterday and I realized that, even if we started vaccinating a million people a day Jan. 1 it would still be almost a year before everyone in the US was vaccinated. May seems wildly optimistic.

[Velocity]

@CairoCarol

I agree with you, but that one isn’t binary enough to definitely state as true or false.* Also, a time frame is important - it’s true at the moment, but at what point in time do you want the prediction to be assessed? Halfway through a Biden Administration? 100 days?

*See my OP:

For example, nothing like “Biden will get off to a shaky start” or “Trump’s base will gradually quiet down.” While the evidence might be strong one way or the other, at the end of the day propositions like those can always be debated.

OK, fair enough, I retract that one.

I will substitute one: The Biden administration will have the U.S. rejoin the CPTPP trade partnership before the 2022 midterms.

[Elmer_J.Fudd]

I predict any predictions I make in 2020 will be as inaccurate as the ones I made in 2016.

[Akaj]

• By the end of 2021, we’ll learn about at least one previously unrevealed major federal crime committed by Trump himself while in office, supported by irrefutable evidence and corroborated by insider testimony.

• Congressional Republicans will do everything in their power to derail the DOJ investigations into that crime, and it will fizzle out with no charges against Trump.

• Trump will, however, be convicted by the SDNY of charges related to money laundering for the Russians.

[Malden_Capell]

Would be ironic if your prediction here is wrong.

[Buck_Godot]

@Velocity

How big will it be? If it’s a lone right-wing gunman shooting just one or two victims, that’s almost an everyday thing.

OK, I’ll refine it to be an attack on a government or Democratic party institution, or an attack against individuals because of their direct association with the government or Democratic party. So not just a dust up at a protest, or racial motivated attack, but an individual trying to hunt down and kill Biden electors counts.

New predictions

• Trump will insinuate that the vaccine that the BIden administration promotes against the Covid virus is fake or faulty or dangerous in some way, despite its being the exact same one he’s promoting now.
• (This may fail the varifiablility requirement) The most damning evidence of malfeasance under the Trump presidency won’t come out until after Biden has left office.

[ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness]

• Bernie Sanders will not run again in the Democratic primaries for president.

I’ll add a few conditional ones:

• If the GOP retakes the House in the 2022 midterms, the House will initiate impeachment hearings no later than June 30, 2024. They may not actually impeach, but they will make a lot of noise.
• If Clarence Thomas vacates his SCOTUS seat between 1/20/2021 and 10/31/2022 and the GOP has control of the Senate on that date, Biden’s pick will not get an up/down vote in the Senate.

[Shoeless]

I predict that Trump will be banned from Twitter within six months of Biden’s inauguration.

I predict that Biden will attempt to keep his inauguration crowd small, but people will turn out anyway and his crowd will be verifiably larger than Trump’s was.

I predict at least one group of extremist Trump supporters will be arrested on domestic terrorism charges before Jan 1, 2022.

[Hari_Seldon]

Logical paradox.

[El_Kabong]

• At Biden’s Inauguration, Kanye West will leap on to the stage, and before the Secret Service can wrestle him down, he shouts the following: “Yo Joe, I’m really happy for you, Imma let you finish but Donald had one of the best Presidencies of all time…one of the best Presidencies of all time!”

• While all this is happening, Trump is halfway through a round at Mar-a-Lago.

OK, more seriously:

• Trump will be indicted by the State of New York for tax fraud within one year of his leaving office.

• Like several others here, I predict Biden will be a one-term President and that Harris will be the Democratic front runner for 2024.

• While I don’t have a GOP front-runner to put forward at this time, I predict Ted Cruz will NOT be the GOP nominee.

[Procrustus]

Trump will pardon Flynn

[CairoCarol]

My latest prediction: Procrustus will predict that Trump will pardon Flynn within hours after Trump tweets the pardon.

[Briny_Deep]

• GOP holds the Senate when runoff elections are complete.
• Biden will not get a single cabinet member confirmed, nor a single judge.
• House flips in 2022. GOP continues to hold the Senate.
• In early 2023, Biden and Harris are impeached, convicted and removed. New Republican Speaker of the House becomes President.

[CairoCarol]

I predict that one or fewer of Briny_Deep’s predictions come true.