I agree with this.
I don’t agree with your entire post but I will say this, my wife and I have a friendly competition every weeknight - we see who can answer the most questions either no one rung in for or that no one answered correctly. James has all but killed that.
I think the show is in trouble. I believe at some point they are going to have to negotiate his departure with a huge pay out. Jennings was not nearly as dominate on a game by game basis. Holzhauer runs away with every game from the get go. As champion, he chooses first, gets a $500 question right and the game is for all practical purposes over. His buzzer timing is unsurpassed. The other 2 contestants have no chance.
After he’s gone, they will quickly install new limits on the new contestants.
Yes, this is the problem with the ‘Holzhauer is great for ratings’ theory----he’s great for ratings for the first ten minutes of the game, only. Once he has that high-dollar dominance, there’s no suspense left.
It would be interesting to know if the Jeopardy! production people get ratings based on how long people stay tuned in, once they start watching. If ad buyers catch on that viewership is dropping sharply in the last half of every show, they will balk at paying full-price rates.
Haven’t been paying attention recently, huh? There are no $500 questions, and haven’t been since the early 1990s. The Jeopardy round answers are valued at $200, $400, $600, $800, and $1,000.
But I disagree that the other contestants have no chance. James has several big advantages, but someone who employs the same strategy of going for the high-value answers early, is quick on the button, and has some luck with clues will eventually beat him. We’ve already seen someone finish within $18 of him.
Why? They didn’t after Jennings. People with Ken and James’s level of encyclopedic knowledge are rare even among *Jeopardy! *contestants, and don’t come along every day. The rarities who do break through once a decade or so give the show a welcome boost of popularity. I’m sure Merv Griffin Productions is very happy to have Holzhauer win as long as he can.
What I’m sure we’ll see in the post-Holzhauer world is his go-big-first strategy become a standard operating mode.
What I’m wondering is why, in 35 years of modern Jeopardy!, did no one ever think to do this before? We’ve had people hunting for the DDs, and jumping categories to confuse rivals, but how could Holzhauer be the first to discover this method? It’s amazing.
Nonsense. That may be the way you react, but the rest of us want to see how high he will go this time. Will he set another record? Will he get a big one wrong?
People are vastly overstating the degree to which is strategy is integral to his continued winning. Yes, he’s worked out a way to increase his win expectation (at the cost of his variance - his strategy is easier to sink from one fluke) but 95% of what makes him dominate is simply because he’s really good on the buzzer and knows the answer to almost all the questions. His strategy is what gets him the big dollar amounts at the end of the day, but he would almost certainly be on just as big a winning streak if he played more conventionally, just with less total money won.
Correction. The values were doubled in November 2001. They were still at half the current levels when I played in 1991, and I thought they went up shortly after that. I was wrong.
The problem I have with that theory is that there is no one time that Jeopardy airs. It’s syndicated at various times in various markets (even on different networks), with the times being nowhere near each other.
Thus, once he’s shown to lose in the earliest broadcast of the show, it’s going to be in the news everywhere. And I’m gonna guess that Jeopardy fans are not usually the types who avoid the news.
And, presumably, the point is to see him lose before you’re told about it. Because, otherwise, you could simply wait until he lost, and then watch the losing episode online somewhere.
I don’t think it’s that easy to “watch the losing episode online somewhere”. I don’t think they normally make episodes available on YouTube, Hulu or whatever. It would not be in the interest of the stations that syndicate the show.
I think I agree – Ken Jennings is probably the prime example of what you’re saying. But I don’t understand what you mean by “his strategy is easier to sink from one fluke.”
However, I disagree with your 95% claim. I would weight the relative value of the three components – button speed, knowledge, and strategy – somewhat more evenly, because having a runaway lead going in to Final Jeopardy completely eliminates the game’s biggest risk: not knowing the final question.
Also, building up an unbeatable lead early protects you against wrong answers in DDs and dead spots in your knowledge base. Then there’s the psychological effect on your opponents, as well.
I do not know if anyone else has posted this article, but it has a story about a 4-yr old Holzhauer being a math whiz. There are pictures of the guy from the 1989news article.
You are incorrect. The earliest airing is at like 11am East Coast time. You can find the results if you look but the news has not been spoiling them. Any articles have come been posted after most of the west coast airings are done.
I know it’s possible to order TV ratings based on quarter-hours, so I’m sure the producers and the advertising types who are interested are already looking at that. Heck, you could even wire a test audience to tell you how they react to Holzhauer second-by-second, as they do in political debates.
As for advertising placement within the show, that’s easy. Sponsor A gets a commercial during the first half one day, Sponsor B gets it the next day, etc. If there’s any sponsor anywhere who paid to get a guaranteed spot right before Final Jeopardy, well, they got what they paid for.
As for ratings,the viewers love it.
Someone who was in the studio audience when Ken Jennings lost leaked it weeks beforehand
In our market (and probably others) Geico always gets the spot right before FJ. The commercial is themed to Jeopardy!
And in our market, there are literally about 10 minutes of commercials between the end of DJ and the beginning of FJ. While we skip them all, there must be some people that feel they have a captive audience in there.
One more factor is that he understands how to bet and isn’t afraid to make a big bet when it’s the right thing to do. Most other players treat their score as money but it’s not money. It’s points. The prize is that you get a dollar per point if you win. Thinking “I have $10,000. If I bet big on this Daily Double and miss it I will lose $10,000” is simply wrong. If you’re behind the only way to catch up is to bet it all. If you miss the question you will lose, but if you get the question and don’t bet enough you will lose anyway.
The only guy who has had a chance yet bet $12,000 on a DD when he had $13,000 so that he could make sure that he got to FJ even if he missed the question. Stupid. If he’d missed the question he was guaranteed to lose, but an extra $1,000 could have put him in a better position to win.
James’s Coryat scores (which take away the effect of the Daily Doubles) are much higher than those of the other players, which shows that he would win even if the Daily Doubles didn’t exist. The only way to beat him will be to find the Daily Doubles before he does and bet big when you find them.
It’s funny how every time there’s a good player on Jeopardy! who uses optimum strategy people whine that he’s “ruining” the game because he doesn’t play the categories in order
I don’t know why these people even watch the show if they don’t like seeing hella good players
OK, suppose that Holzhauer builds up one of his characteristic unbeatable leads, and then on the third Daily Double, he bets big, and (as happens occasionally) gets it wrong. Now that unbeatable lead suddenly isn’t unbeatable any more.