Like I said, let’s watch and see. Take note every time going into FJ, the scores are such that 2nd is within reach of 1st, but if 2nd and 1st both bet the “normal” amounts (ie, 1st bets enough to barely beat 2nd if 2nd doubles up, and 2nd bets enough to barely beat 1st if 1st gets it wrong) then 3rd can’t win… and see how often 1st and 2nd bet such that the door is open for 3rd. Then multiply that by the chance of both 1st and 2nd getting it wrong (which is conditionally tricky to calculate, because there’s a good chance that 2nd only bets like a maniac if they are VERY confident about the category), add in some additional conditions about whether you yourself had to get it right or not to get in reach and… we’ll see how often it actually comes up.
OK, that is not the scenario you were asking about and not what I was responding to.
You said if the scores were $10,000, $9,000 and $1,000 that the 3rd place player “has no chance of being in first.” That is not true. 1st place would normally bet enough to pass 2nd place doubling. So 1st place would be $8,001. 2nd place should optimally bet enough that if they miss it, they have $2,001, but the 2nd place player often times doesn’t even consider 3rd and bets it all (or all but $1.) If 1st and 2nd miss it, and 3rd gets it correct, the scores would be:
1st: $10,000-$8001=$1999
2nd: $9,000-$9,999=$1
3rd: $1000+$1000=$2000 winner.
I’ve seen that happen many many times.
Did anybody else guess “Puck” for FJ?
You’re misreading “no matter what” as “if and only if”. He will win (assuming he bets at least 2.1K) if he gets it right and everyone else gets it wrong. He might also win in some other situations based on betting patterns, but, importantly, he has a very real and live chance of winning based solely on the knowledge, not the wagering.
Like I said, ping this thread next time it does. It’s not flat-out-impossible, which is why in the 5500 9000 10000 case I’m all for betting 4600 or so, not all 5500. But I think you’re vastly miscalculating the other half of the EV, which is the likelihood of winning if you’re in (or tied for) first vs not being in first. (Although frankly I wish I hadn’t brought up precise ties to begin with, because that’s not really the situation I’m generally irritated by, and they’re kind of in their own little universe.) (Ie, 10K 10K 3K is WAY WAY WAY more favorable for the 3K than 10K 9K 3K.) (But you’d still much rather be any of the 10Ks than anything else.)
(And it’s also worth pointing out that while being the winner of the episode is valuable in and of itself, because you get to come back, you also should be calculating the amount of money you win. If you have a choice between being 50% likely to win with $25K or 51% likely to win with $500, you should probably take the first choice, even if it technically makes you less likely to “win the episode”).
Well, then it will presumably happen again soon, and I will have egg on my face.
Yes. But 2nd’s bet shouldn’t be everything. In fact it could be nothing. They just need 1st to be wrong so why bet it all? Usually you see 2nd bet around 3,000 in these situations.
As soon as I saw the category, I thought of “Le Figaro.” After I read the clue, I was sure.
There’s an opera with a Puck?
Who knows? I just seemed to remember an old magazine being named Puck, which may or may not have existed.
It took me a couple of seconds to run down my list of known foreign newspapers and do a cross-comparison with familiar comic opera figures, but I got it.
You’re right about the magazine, but A Midsummer Night’s Dream is not an opera.
Yes it is. Composed by Benjamin Britten, premiered in 1960.
I have never heard of that newspaper, so I would have been screwed. But, the category scared me, so I wouldn’t have bet much.
A big hit?
That’s my only real beef with Katie. At least she’s not as wooden as Ken & the other guy were.
I think they need to give it to Mike Rowe of Dirty Jobs & Deadliest Catch fame.
Fairly positive reviews. It’s been produced many times, with many recordings. Not to my taste though; I’m not a Britten fan.
Oh, and Puck doesn’t sing; it’s a speaking role.
Well would you look at that. The player in a way distant 3rd position going into FJ won tonight because the two with huge scores both got it wrong.
(And somehow I actually guessed the correct answer!)
Darned if you’re not right. I was so mad at that second place guy… not only did he throw away a ton of money, but he made me look dumb on the internet!
Now that would be an interesting choice of host. My only worry would be that he might ad-lib a little too much. Alex Trebek was great at it, knowing what was too little and what was too much, and he left some big shoes to fill in regards to finding that balance. Perhaps Mike could.
I’m not minding Katie Couric. Like I said, Alex left some big shoes to fill, and it seems to me that Katie is aware of that. Hence, her little stumbles this past week. But with a little more practice, I think she could find it, and make the show her own, just as Alex did.