I think what you’re missing is that if you have 0 you can’t even play FJ. So it’s almost always a very bad choice to bet everything right before FJ.
So it’s the very last question of the game, you have 5000, opponents have 9000 and 10000. You get the daily double. It’s a category which you neither particularly love nor particularly hate. Do you honestly think your best shot of winning is to bet anything other than 5000?
(I mean, clearly it’s worth something to not be at zero. So in the above case, if you have 5500, there’s no point in betting it all rather than, say, 5100. And of course usually it’s not literally the last question of the game when there’s such perfect information. In general, though, quite close to the end of the game, having a tiny stack is worth almost almost almost nothing.)
Betting 5000 in that situation would be really stupid. If you miss it, that’s it, the game is over and you can’t play FJ. I would bet 4000. If I get it right I am tied in second place but if I miss it, I have 1000, which players 1 and 2 need to guard against in their FJ wagers.
If second place did not have 50 percent of the leaders total, that would be a situation where betting it all would be the only option. Because you’d have to bet something, meaning even if you just bet $5 but got it wrong you could not win the game, so might as well bet everything and try to tie the leader. I did see that happen once or twice.
Peter Pan flew into Wendy’s room to look for his THIMBLE???
I have been only watching Jeopardy regularly for about four months. One thing I really hate is when the contestants hold their “buzzers” high for the viewers to see during the game. I hate seeing the jarring image of their hand struggling with the device with the ugly shaking. The optics of that are awful and the woman who won today is yet another contestant who does that. Just keep the damn thing hidden so we don’t see it. I wish the producers would tell the contestants to knock that off and keep it hidden.
So that’s what the kids are calling it these days?
Agree. You must get the question right or you’re done. Bet it all.
Winning and playing tomorrow is such a big reward compared to the consolation prizes, so I wouldn’t consider a strategy that tries to salvage second place. I might bet all but one so I could play Final and write a joke response.
If scores are 1000 9000 10000 going into FJ, the 1000 player should never win, period, end of story, barring ludicrously bad wagering on the parts of the other players. Guy with 10000 will almost always bet a ton. But guy with 9000 only has to bet like 3000 or so (precise amount depending on his level of confidence in the category, some minor mind games in case both he and 10000 both miss it, etc.). No reason for him to bet 7000+. Guy with 10000 might get fancy and not bet a lot, but that just hurts you more. Someone with a tiny stack can sneak in and win FJ basically only if either someone horribly blunders, or if the two other players are literally tied.
On the flip side, if you bet 5000 and get it right, now you control your own destiny, you are in the driver’s seat, everyone else has to react to you.
Have you ever watched the game?
People win from second and even third all the time. It’s not a rare occurrance.
There’s a huge difference between winning from close third (10000 9000 8000) vs distant third (10000 9000 1000). And while people do win from close third, they win from first a LOT more often.
That is true. But if you’re not in first going into FJ, you’re nowhere near “done”.
I feel like we’re going around in circles here. Let’s modify it slightly so that you have 5500, other players have 9000 and 10000 (just so we can ignore the issue of a tie).
Again, you get a DD on the very last question. How much should you bet? Here are several possibilities:
(1) Bet 5500
(2) Bet somewhere between 5001 and 5499 (so you’ll be in sole 1st place if you get it right)
(3) Bet 5000 (so you’ll be tied for first place if you get it right)
(4) Bet a substantial amount (3k to 4k or so) so you’ll be “in the mix” if you get it right, and still have 1 or 2K if you get it wrong
(5) Bet very little, so that whether you get the question right or wrong, you’re poised to be a legit spoiler in FJ.
Of those, I think (1) is strictly worse than (2), just because (as discussed in this thread) there is SOME value to being in FJ even with a tiny stack. (2) seems basically better than (3). And (5) might be useful on rare occasions, particularly if you really really think you suck at the category.
But what I think is almost certainly the case is that (2) is WAY better than (4). Because if you get it right, you’re in MUCH better shape. But if you get it worse, you’re only in slightly worse shape. 10005 is WAY better than 8000 or so. But 2000 and 500 are nearly identical.
Well yes, that’s what I was saying. You never want to bet everything going into FJ, unless it’s a runaway game and not doing so would leave you under 50% of the leaders total. If you can bet big enough to pass the leader without going to zero if you miss it (and it’s a category you feel you might know), then you should do that.
To be clear, you’re saying that if it’s 5500 9000 10000, you would bet 5100 (or so) and aim to put yourself in first place. But if it was 5000 9000 10000, you would NOT bet 5000 (for the tie), but would instead bet 4000 or so, even though you have no chance of being in first and don’t control your own destiny, just because you think having 1000 in a 1000 9000 10000 FJ is worth a significant amount?
You don’t “have no chance of being in first.” You can easily win, and almost that exact scenario just happened last week!
Again, if you have 0, you can not even play Final Jeopardy.
That was a very unusual case in that there was a precise tie between the other two players. If it’s 5000 10000 10000, well, that’s a VERY weird situation and all the rules go out the window. But the fact that a tiny stack can legitimately win with the two big guns are literally tied, so they have to bet in very specific ways, doesn’t mean that “getting to play” is worth diddly squat with a tiny stack in a “normal” game.
Sorry but you are very wrong here. Many times the person in 3rd place wins because the two with the higher totals bet against each other and get it wrong, leaving the 3rd place player ahead.
(You also have to take the category into play as well. If it’s “Best Musical Winners of the 2000s” or a random $200 clue, well then maybe I might try for the tie. But anything I am not 100% confident in, I would not risk it all in that scenario.)
Well, let’s watch and see. Next time there’s a third place player who has a trivial stack (ie, small enough that 2nd place can bet enough to get ahead of 1st place, and even if they are wrong and 3rd place doubles up, they would still be ahead of 3rd place) and 1st and 2nd are NOT tied, and 3rd place wins… feel free to ping this thread. And we’ll see how often it is.
10k 9k 8k: 3rd place can win by being the only one to get it right, no matter what
10k 6k 4k: 3rd place can win by being the only one to get it right, if 1st place makes a “normal” wager
10k 9k 4k: 3rd place can win by being the only one to get it right (despite having less than half of either 1st or 2nd), if 1st place and 2nd place both make a “normal” wager
10K 9k 1k: my claim is that 3rd place will effectively never win. Maybe once a year or something? If that?
There’s three valid strategies here for third place. Yours, play for the tie. Two is to bet nothing. The third is bet 4001.
The betting strategy would be, asssuming everyone expects to get it right - #1 bets 8001, guaranteeing a win with the correct answer, #2 bets 1001, because betting it all doesn’t win the game with a correct FJ answer from first place. But it does put 2 in first place with 1 making a wrong FJ answer and #2 getting it right, no matter what 1 bets or 3 does. Plus, in the event of #1 and #2 getting it wrong, #2 is in first over 1. What about 3?
But if #3 bets 4001 and gets it right, and 1 and 2 do not, 3 wins.
3 betting $0 can’t win the game under any circumstances of smart betting, but can get second. But if 2 bets more than 4000 in some misguided thinking, 3 can win betting 0. All “bets” are off however if contestants make unstrategic bets. And that happens all the time!
And that’s not even factoring how comfortable the contestants feel about the FJ category. And people who wager figuring the higher person will get it wrong, and they cover the expected wager only.
Basically, betting 5000 only gives one chance of 3 getting the win: a 0 bet by first with the right or wrong answer, or any bet and a wrong answer, plus 2 getting it wrong (or betting under 1000), but yet, 3 still has to win the tie breaker.
bolding mine
There’s where your logic lets you down. People have shown they don’t always make the right bet. 3rd can win if one and 2 don’t think they CAN get it right, so they bet low. but still get it right anyway. Third can also win with the wrong answer if 1 and 2 bet high and get it wrong, and 3 bets nothing.
But if he bet it all on the DD near the end of the game, and ended up with 0 going into FJ, take the “effectively” away. That’s why you don’t do that. And it does end up to be more than once a year.
If everyone was a machine, using optimal strategy, never making a mistake and getting all answers correct, it would be as boring as watching two computers place chess.