The most likely location for a nuclear attack?

Just wondering, if it were to happen tomorrow, where would ground zero for the next nuclear attack be? This includes but is not limited to thermonuclear weapons and by any entity against another (not necessarily a US attack.)- a dirty bomb could be a possibility, as well.
Country and/or city?
Pakistan is my top choice.

Similar thread I started three years ago. Let’s see if anybody’s opinion has changed. Kinda creepy to see some of the replies since 9/11.

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?threadid=45157

I still say, the town so nice, they named it twice, where I live and breathe, the crossroads of the world.

New York… New York.

Nah. To difficult. India, Israel, Russia, or China are far more likely to get it. Possibly even Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, or Iraq.

It’s much easier to transport these things over the vast unihabited Asian landmass than over the ocean and into a US port.

Depends who’s throwing the party. I could imagine a small nuke being landing somewhere south of the 39th parallel, courtesy of the ROK. If instead it’s an act of terrorism, I expect putting the nuke on a small boat and piloting it to South Ferry, New York City would be pretty tempting.

In any case, I find it any scenario unlikely.

I would say the most likely is Moscow. Just because there are a bunch of fringe groups running around in the former Soviet Union, nuclear weapons lying around and not guarded properly, and some wackos might see a benefit is sowing total chaos in Russia. The impression that I get is that the situation in some parts of that region is far more unstable than some people realize.

Now if terrorists were to strike with a nuclear bomb in the U.S., it wouldn’t be in Washington or New York because security has been beefed up the most there. Terrorists look for the weakest link. The most likely target would be a port city, and one with economic importance. My answer would be New Orleans, because a blast there would interrupt all the shipping that goes up the Mississippi River.

A small nuclear weapon in a storage container aboard a ship bringing cargo to the United States would seem the easiest way to get it into a port. The steel might hide the radiation signature and the ship would not draw notice as a small craft trying to get into the port would. With all the cargo coming into the US, it can’t possibly all be searched.

I would think that if Al Qaeda specifically got their hands on a single weapon, they’d want to use it on something they knew they could probably hit. An operation to get it to the US would be extremely risky. Al Qaeda is also very active fighting Russia over Chechnya. I would think that this would be a very tempting target, although they might thing twice since Russia might just turn around and wipe Chechnya and any other possible Al Qaeda supporting nation off the map. Putin doesn’t play around.

I’ve thought about this happening on Mardi Gras day. Millions of people very close to the river all day.

What about any of the US West Coast Ports?

San Fransisco, Los Angeles, Honalulu and possibly Seattle. All easily reachable by container ship and Al Queda has a following in certain pacific rim nations that trade with the US.

Most likely? The India/Pakistan theatre. I can imagine a few scenarios where nuclear weapons could come into the picture - and it’s not a pretty picture.

I don’t see China NEEDING to use nukes in Taiwan. Seems to me they’d just give us the bum’s rush, saturate the island with conventional missiles, land as many troops as they could, and call it done.

I can see the US fighting a naval standoff with China … I can’t see us wanting to get on the ground to dig out thousands of entrenched Chinese.

Hell… if we’re talking about shipping and US targets, why not Houston?

First in the United States in foreign waterborne commerce, second in total tonnage, and sixth in the world.

Plus, the Houston Ship Channel is lined with refineries and chemical plants- a small nuke nearby would wreck those and start all sorts of fires, as well as release lots of nasty stuff into the environment.

According to a 6/2003 Report from ABC (when tensions were @ a high level)

It sound macabre, but I assumed that estimate would’ve been much higher.

I don’t even want to consider the notion of it happening in the mainland US.

As far as a prediction goes: The port of Haifa.

Saddam Kamel was on record as stating it was Iraq’s plan prior to his assasination. Even though some intelligence reports refuted his claims, they can’t deny the fact Israel is public enemy #1 in the eyes of that regions zealots & megalomaniacs.

Prime locations for smaller scale suicide bombings on US soil:

–Disney World
–Major sporting events
–The DC Metro. (Pentagon stop perhaps?)
Yes, I have anxiety problems.

Las Vegas, Nevada

A chinese civil war, due any time now

Declan

Why a nuclear attack?

Granted, large explosions are impressive and get attention but a truckload of strychnine would be easier to get than a nuke and would ruin someone’s water supply in a big way.

Have a nice day.

Can I get some sort of cite on that?

No Offense meant but if I was ranking ports in the U.S. I would never even consider Houston.

I’ll second Taiwan.

If anybody has read The ideas that conquered the world Michael Mandelbaum claims it is the most dangerous place in the world. Note, however, that it was written just after 9/11, ie before that flare up between India and Pakistan and just as China was becoming a (somewhat) respected member of the international community.

China will not win a conventional battle against Taiwan, ie one that involves invading and forcibly imposing a government on the native people.