Ok, I’ve been tracking this theory for a few weeks now, and it seems to be working out each and every week. I’ve cracked the code as to who the N.Y. Giants can and cannot beat. Take a look at their wins and losses so far this year:
WINS:
Redskins, Browns, Packers, Cowboys, Vikings
LOSSES:
Eagles, Lions, Bears, Cardinals, Falcons
It’s simple – the Giants cannot beat teams named for animals!
So, if we look to the future, we see wins against the Redskins, Steelers, Bengals (it’s a location, not a tiger), and Cowboys. Losses should be from the Eagles and Ravens.
That’d leave the Giants with a 9-7 record; which, in the craphole that is the 2004 NFC, should be enough for a Wild Card slot! Woohoo!!
I dunno, Hal. Sure, Bengal is a place, but the Cincy uniforms clearly invoke the tiger aspect. I think you might have to settle for a tie in this game. Will 8-7-1 be enough?
I’ve been a Giants fan since the beginning of the 1990 season, and that magical 10-0 season capped by the greatest Superbowl ever played (no turnovers; no mistakes at all – even the safety was a great heads-up play by Hostetler) solidified my undying allegiance in perpetuity.
So I have many thoughts regarding this particular incarnation of Big Blue, as well as overarching trends the Giants have steadfastly maintained despite huge turnover in personnel and coaching staffs.
First and foremost, the single most important aspect of Big Blue is that we win when we’re expected to lose, and lose when we’re expected to win. This applies to individual games as well as entire seasons.
In 2000, Jim Fassel was forced to make a public statement that “This team is going to the playoffs.” Why? Because we’d lost easy games we were expected to win, and were now expected to miss the playoffs. The result? Superbowl bound.
In 2002, the Giants made an improbable late-season run, beating teams as heavy underdogs to get the wildcard spot. At that point, most people figured the Giants would make it deep into the playoffs, so we promply suffered the second worst collapse in playoff history.
But not to worry, going into the 2003 season, the Jints were expected to be a contender in the NFC, which of course resulted in a top 5 draft pick. Ugh.
Now this year. The Eagles were expected to beat the Giants, and they did, which is an exception to the rule. However, that’s due to Donovan McNabb, who I believe has never lost to the Giants. We were expected to struggle until the bye, so we promptly won four in a row. here’s where the other tendencies kicked in:
Can’t win after a bye? Check.
Have the Vikings number? Check.
Can’t beat the Falcons? Check.
That only leaves two games – the Bears and Lions (or were the Lions after the bye?) – both of which were expected to be Giant victories, and so naturally we lost them both. sigh
That brings us to the rest of the season. Assuming we keep the tactic of playing up and down t the level of competition, and the fact the McNabb owns us, I see it breaking down this way:
Redskins, Bengals, and Cowboys will be losses because we should win them.
Steelers and Ravens will be victories because we should lose them.
The Eagles will be a loss because we can’t beat McNabb and we can’t beat TO, so we can’t even begin to hope to beat both of them together.
That leaves us with a 7-9 record, which is roughly what most people predicted. Oh, the irony.
Now, the question is, how do we Giants fan feel about that 7-9 record? Well, it’s good enough so that we won’t have given San Diego a top 10 pick in the draft next year. And it will mean that Eli will have 7 games under his belt, so we shouldn’t have to worry about him pulling a Carson Palmer next year.
Eli is really the key to my optimism. I’m very happy General Tom benched Warner as early as he did; I really wanted to see Eli a week earlier. The absolute worst possible outcome for this season would have been to stick with Warner all year, go 9-7, and get knocked out of the playoffs in the wildcard round. No experience for Eli, no real accomplishment in the post-season. So at least we dodged that bullet.
Regarding this week, I personally think we should sit Toomer. He’s obviously hampered by his bad hammy, making it nigh impossible for him to get open. He’s never been great, (no Giant has except Strahan), but he’s solid if he’s open. So sit him down 1 or 2 weeks to get him healthy, keep Hilliard at #2, and put in Jamaar Taylor and David Tyree as rotating #1 receivers, starting Taylor.
Some things have been bugging me: Strahan was grossly misused during the first half of the season by the numerous zone blitzes. Go back to the zone blitzes now, because there is no Strahan to be misused. Zone blitzes actually help to mask weak DEs. Not that Osi is weak; I’m a big fan of his. But Lance Legree?! How the hell is he even still on the team, anyway? Makes me long for the days of Frank Ferrara.
Also, send Shockey out on a friggin route already. I don’t want to hear about how he has to pick up the blitz if there is one; the one sure thing Manning can do is get rid of the ball early. (Unlike Warner.) Let the blitz come; use Shockey in dump-offs if you have to. Let Tiki chip. Put Rivers or Shiancoe in the TE1 spot, line Shockey up in slot, and go with single back. Whatever you have to do, just make sure that Shockey is a receiver in every single passing play. Please, no more watching Shockey block while Jim Finn runs a pattern. I like Finn, but c’mon already!
On defense, all bow down before Tim Lewis. I still shake my head in disbelief at the huge downgrade in defensive coordinator we had going from John Fox to Johnny Lynne. Promoting from within is noble, but he was a terrible special teams coach; why would you think he’d be a better defensive coordinator? Good lord. But Tim Lewis is a bonafide coach who can scheme pretty well. (Except for misusing Strahan, of course.)
All in all, I’ll be happy with 7-9, I’m excited about Eli, Tim Lewis, Gibril Wilson, Shockey’s effectiveness in the red zone, Tiki’s ball handling and general awesomeness, Tyree’s punt coverage, and our glut of recent draft picks that appear to be panning out. We still have all but 2 draft picks since 2001 on the team, contributing well. Overall we are a young team. With any luck, Osi can turn into a Strahan lite.
On the other hand, I’m concerned about the age of Toomer, Hilliard, Tiki, Strahan, and Emmons. I’m worried about the free safety position; Stoutmire can hit hard and do nothing else, while Alexander is solid in every way except that he’s getting old. Our biggest weakness is linebacker, since we purged our class of 2000 this year. (Dhani Jones and Brandon Short) Ron Dayne must go; perhaps we could trade him plus our third rounder next year for a decent backup for Tiki. Cloud is good enough, but he’s as old as Tiki.
Come to think of it, I’d gladly package Dayne with Shaun Williams instead of a draft pick and send them off to a team for a decent back. Jets, maybe? They’re weak at FS, and Jordan’s contract is a headache. Imagine Lamont Jordan being the Thunder in Tiki’s Lightning, plus he’s young enough to be heir apparent. Regardless, I will be watching next year’s draft with a critical eye toward linebackers and running backs. Unlike everybody else, I’m happy with our offensive linemen, especially considering we still have a youngish Seubert on IR who is actually good.
Your post echos many of my own thoughts, Ellis. A few notes:
Lamont Jordan is a free agent at the end of this season, so a trade wouldn’t be necessary. Unfortunately, given his performance in recent weeks and the fact that he’s just now entering a RB’s prime years (he turned 26 this month), I imagine his price tag would be too high for the Giants unless they’re willing to dump Tiki (who’ll be 30 in April) and make Jordan the starter right away.
At Safety, my guess is that the Giants will start Williams and Wilson next year. Sure, they’re both Strong Safeties, but I bet Wilson can be coached into the FS roll without too much trouble.
– I’m liking Osi U. more and more. He needs to get just a bit stronger, but I love his speed. A couple of times versus the Eagles he was able to chase down a RB or WR from behind to make a play, which is a nice bonus from a DE.
– Shockey’s killing me with these drops; I’m sorry, he just doesn’t have good hands. He should spend about 8 hours every Saturday with a backup QB being thrown tough catches. Just like young NBA stars mastering the mid-range jumper: do it a million times a day until you’re good at it.
What do we need to do in the off-season? In no particular order:
– Get a MLB. We just don’t have one right now.
– Get an heir for Tiki, who has one or maybe two good years left.
– Get a young WR (or two, if we decide Jamal Crawford can’t be a starter within two years). Tim Carter is too fragile to be counted on. In fact, we should let go of Hilliard and/or Toomer right away and bring in someone who can get open while we wait for the young guys, because age has definitely gotten the better of them.
– O-line, O-line, O-line. We need a RT. We need a LG (is Seubert ever coming back from that leg injury? I think not). We need a Center. We need a solid backup LT, because Petigout is going to miss 4 games a year (and, frankly, isn’t that great even when he’s healthy).
– Draft another DE. We’re nearing the end of the Michael Strahan era.
– I liked their Free Agent strategy last off-season: no big names, just lots of solid, modestly priced veterans who can start and/or give you good depth (Norman Hand being the best of the bunch last year). We need more of this.
– Build a time machine, go back to the 2004 Draft. Don’t make the trade with the Chargers. Trade down with the Browns pick up their 2nd rounder, keep this year’s #1, and take Roethlisberger. Don’t sign Warner, just start Ben.
I wish I knew the contract status of all their players (salary, prorated bonus, years remaining, etc.). Is their a website that has this information? I’d be completely insufferable if I got to play backseat GM.
World Eater: I imagine that they were thinking that it took six years for Peyton to really get noticed, and it might take the same for the younger Manning boy. But I think your question was rhetorical, so never mind that.
In any case, I readily admit that I come from “Archie who?” lineage, having had Rebel parents who attended classes with Archie and Olivia, and that I am a wee bit biased. And since I had nothing of real substance to contribute, other than I am fascinated with the Mannings and continue to cheer for them, I’ll excuse myself now. Back to your regularly scheduled football jabber.
You are correct; Jordan is a pipe dream. Let’s just draft a RB in the third round and be done with it. No more Heisman winners, please!
Unless we could somehow get an excellent trade for Williams, I like this idea very much.
Yeah, Osi is a favorite of mine. He was a second rounder, though, and I’d rather see next year’s second rounder go to offense. Oh wait, next year’s first rounder already went to offense. grumble Ernie’s been very good, but his desire to seal his legacy with Eli will annoy me for years to come, I bet.
Agreed. I don’t so much mind his one drop per game minimum, but I’d be much happier if it were also a maximum.
Agreed. And Emmons is almost as old as Strahan, plus is injury prone, so linebackers in general are an issue.
I think he has two or three left, but we are in agreement that we need an heir apparent on the squad no later than next season.
Sadly, you are correct. We’ve gone through a glut of young receivers. Jonathan Carter, released. Daryl Jones, released. Ron Dixon, retired (?!) from injury. Tim Carter, substantially injured every year. But I think we have a couple good ones. Giants management is a huge fan of Jamaar Taylor. I personally am a huge fan of David Tyree. As long as we stay away from superstar receivers, I’m cool with bringing in an upper-echelon guy or two. Hilliard is injury prone and old, but the man can catch. Toomer? sigh I could imagine a few good trades, one involving Shaun Williams, and the other involving Toomer. Perhaps Toomer for a safety and Williams for a receiver.
I must admit you have some good points here. I still hold out hope for Seubert. But Diehl, a converted guard, is having trouble at RT. Speakingh of guards, we have (I believe) two on injured reserve and one playing at tackle. Our real issue is tackles. Probably that was why I wanted Gallery so much.
Draft? I agree we need another. But I’m thinking a solid journeyman is the way to go. I can’t think of any names offhand, but I’d hate to see another year of high picks going toward the DL. We already did that, with some success. Let’s focus on linebackers in the draft now. Besides, we got Bromell back now, who is a journeyman and pretty young as well.
My favorite pickups were Hand and O’Hara. I’m not sure why you’re down on the center, other than the fact that he’s been injured, but I think he’s been pretty good.
Ernie Accorsi has always used the strategy of picking up only solid, modestly priced free agents. (And releasing overpriced guys like Jessie Armstead.) Bill Belichik has been quoted saying that he based his personnel model on the Giants’ model. Sure, he’s had much more success at it, but I guess all I’m saying is that we’ve been doing it for a while and all signs point to more of the same. In my mind, that’s good news.
I’ll do you one better. Draft Sean Taylor and keep Kerry Collins for the next 5 years.
I’m sure there is somewhere. Don’t laugh, but Madden 2005 actually has pretty accurate contracts for most players, in particular the Giants. Managing the cap has been eye-opening for me.
