The Next Big Thing

Great Debates
1

Human history, coarse grain (my version):
~2.5 Million ya - tools invented
~400,000 ya - Homo sapiens appear (i.e. modern skeletal structure)
~50,000 ya - rapid technological and cultural development, massive migrations and colonization of new environments
10,500 ya - first crop, wheat, is domesticated, beginning development of civilizations and a second flowering of culture and technology
500 ya (to present)- Oceanic geographic barriers fall to improvements in maritime technology, allowing massive cultural mixing and migrations; modern economies and scientific method developed,leading to third flowering of culture and technology.

So what’s next? Does mankind have a destiny, and if so what is the next entry on this history going to look like? Remember, it’s a coarse grain view, so it’ll have to be only the most major of events/developments, encompassing all of humankind and changing the way we exist as a species.

2

How about this:
100 yfn (years from now): Corporations, tired of dealing with NASA’s inefficiencies and blatant incompetencies, begin to fund the Second Space Race, something that begins with satellites and ends with colonies in high Earth orbit, on the moon, and well on their way to Mars. Private interests sending things into space begin to permeate to the EU and the Russian Economic Bloc, often providing no-frills options even people in countries like China can afford. As more people move into space to get away from the runaway population growth, costs are forced down because more corporations hop on that bandwagon and provide the same services. Space colonies become more self-sufficient, giving Earth ultra-efficient ways to deal with pollution and make food. Expensive chemical rockets are replaced by magnetic launching devices, powered by microwave energy beamed to Earth from solar panels in orbit around the sun (this technology already exists, but is not currently in use). As nanotechnology takes off, medicine goes through its Fourth Revolution (First Revolution-Aristotle’s theories. Second Revolution-Germ theory, invention of the microscope and discovery of cells. Third revolution-Invention of sulfa drugs and antibiotics.) as nanobots, molecule-sized machines, are made in pill form to actively search and destroy pathogens and diseased cells. This move kills nearly all infective agents, and many diseases, viruses included, face extinction. Nanobots are also used in terraforming Mars along with genetically altered single-celled life (there is often no difference between the two). There will be doubtless many more advances far beyond these. Read the works of Eric Drexler for nanotechnology predictions, Arthur C. Clarke for (sometimes dated) space race predictions, and look up Extropianism for more references and predictions.

3

OP:

These all look awfully alike to me, boiling down to “continued cultural and technological development.” I predict that there will be more of the same.

4

Amen to that, Derleth.

And that’s just the stuff we can imagine.

5

hopefully, our near-future is more star trek-ish than cyberpunk-ish.

hopefully, we have a far-future. If so, I’ll bet it includes off-world colonies.

6

The State Opinion

November 1, 2180

General Secretary — Zuan Pey, of Sector 107
[ul]
Having been measured with nearly a .94 prognatus, Zuan Pey is the clear choice for Secretary General, and thus was recommended by the General Council. Of the fewer than one hundred ninepluses in existence, she has the purest “leadership gene”, measuring .97 on the exequo scale. Her life expectancy is statistically certain to carry her to term. Vote yes, not no, for Zuan Pey.
[/ul]

Secretary of Information — Klaus Zimmer, of Sector 4
[ul]
With an opinion nearly identical to that of The State (.99 exequo), Klaus Zimmer is the best choice available for Secretary of Information. Models predict an applied variant quotient of .0031, the least variance on record. Vote yes, not no, for Klaus Zimmer.
[/ul]

Secretary of Enforcement — Mgumbo Mfente, of Sector 808
[ul]
A hero of The State, Mgumbo Mfente is recommended by the General Council for his heroic suppression of the so-called “freedom-uprising” in Sector 808. He has demonstrated that he is capable of using the most efficient means to achieve the goals of The State. In addition, he is a ninepluser. Vote yes, not no, for Mgumbo Mfente.
[/ul]

Secretary of Need — Sandra Register, of Sector 50
[ul]
With a variance of less than 4 (3.71) from the statistical mean need of The State, Sandra Register is the most likely candidate for Secretary of Need. His “empathy gene” measures .92 exequo. Vote yes, not no, for Sandra Register.
[/ul]

Think “submit” to vote now.

7

Hey, Lib, that was great! I like Klaus. His campaign motto could be “He knows you want him”.

8

Next big thing? Well that’s easy. It’s the development of everything we’ve been told by 80’s movies. If I don’t get my reflective future suit, flying car, hover-skateboard, and lycanthropy, well somebody’s gonna pay.

9

I think the next big step is interstellar travel and bio-technology.

Lib- People have been saying something like that is gonna happen for a hundred years now.

10

Personally, I want my kid to have a third eye. Yeah, the one I name Xerxes.

11

An extra finger on each hand.

Actually, I think people will keep growing taller. People were much shorter back then IIRC.

12

Well, lo and behold!

13

Derleth wrote:

… whereupon many once-thriving viruses and bacteria suddenly fall under the protection of the Endangered Species Act. The EPA passes sweeping regulations prohibiting all persons infected with said viruses or bacteria from curing their infection, as infected people are these organisms’ natural habitats. The human population is wiped out by the common influenza virus, except for the heads of the EPA, who are all safely ensconced in the bio-shielded plastic bubble they’ve buried beneath NORAD.

14

Interestingly, someone where I am is working on Boron cages, which so far show the most promise for nano-technology. It’s cool stuff–in theory you can even create artificial DNA with it (well, technically it wouldn’t be DNA, since it wouldn’t be deoxyribonucleic acid, but you know what I mean).

15

Yes, they are alike in general form; that was kind of the point. We are in a position to make a prediction based on the pattern. Developments are not the smooth continuum many often assume by looking at recorded history, a mere 5,000 years, coupled with the fact that we are in a period of extremely rapid development right now that hasn’t ended. We also tend to magnify the significance of recent accomplishments. IMO, even something like the internet has not nor will it alter our species as much as the original invention of tools, or the development of agriculture.

With the OP, I was thinking along the lines of: Space travel makes colonization of Mars, and possibly a moon or two of one of the gas giants possible, stimulating the application of biotech to the creation of highly designed life forms (for these novel environments). This technology is also applied to the creation of entirely new types of crops, domesticates, and (potentially) humans, causing drastic changes in human social structure.
Physics and Chemistry continue to contribute new technologies, but at a greatly reduced rate, because humans live on a scale at which effects that manifest beyond the quantum level or at relativistic conditions generally do not have much immediate impact on our environment (i.e. new physics discoveries will have a reduced application to human life relative to, say, the effect EM theory has). Biology will continue to be a major source of new technology as new discoveries are made, and there may be a development of applied geology (“geology” used broadly to include oceanography and atmospheric science too) to things like terraforming or climate control on earth. After two hundred years or so, the rate of growth of these technologies diminishes as well.
The world’s economy shifts to renewable energy sources, which among other things causes drastic shifts in political alignments, tending toward ever-larger power blocks. Increasing political unity on earth is accompanied by increasing demands for political autonomy by e.t. colonies as they become more self reliant.
The above all occurs over the next three hundred years or so. Then the situation settles in to various ups and downs, and of course there will be no shortage of material for historians to record, but it will be an overall stable situation and last with only relatively minor new developments for at least several thousand years.

16

Let’s see…may I draw a different timeline?
10,000 y.a. – City or regional government based on permanent stratification based on ‘divinity of the ruler’ prevails. Economic system is largely barter + protectionist (everyone is taxed and the divine ruler enjoys the proceeds in return for which he declines to kill subjects). No clear distinction between justice system, law enforcement, rekigious belief system, and the putting down of insurrection.

5,000 y.a. – Beginnings of universally applicable legal codes with specific punishments for infractions. Expansionist (imperial) government tendencies. Beginnings of formalization of units of trade (gold, certain gemstones, etc).

2,500 y.a. – Coinage in use; Imperial governments, local rulers, vertical hierarchy in permanent stratification. Elaboration of religious belief system as explanation and justification of power structures and social laws and mores. Occasional and intermittent democratic processes including election of representatives and voting on decisions. Some structures for providing services for the direct benefit of people other than the rulers.

1,000 y.a. – Beginnings of rejection of ‘divine right’ of rulers; increasing codification of laws and beginnings of codification of processes for creating laws.

500 y.a. – Beginnings of the ascendancy of knowledge and wisdom as the justification for the possession of power and authority. Beginnings of challenge to the religious-based explanation of the status quo.

250 y.a. – Expanding philosophical belief in democracy and equality leads to movement away from permanent vertical hierarchies in favor of representative elected governments. Expansion of literacy and availability of media enables increased awareness of and cries for participation in decision-making. Governmental structures justified on the basis of service to citizens. Taxation justified through representative participation in their redistribution on the part of the taxed. Increased support for freedom of religion and isolation of religious structure from official governmental decision-making structure.

125 y.a. – Expanding belief in basic equality leads to decay of category-based social status systems. Slow but perpetual global increase in democratic tendencies of governmental processes. Continued increase in interconnectedness and informedness of peoples.

50 y.a. – Abstraction of units of exchange from physical commodities; beginnings of electronification of economic transactions. Still more movement globally from vertical hierarchical to more democratic forms of government. Redistributive economic tendencies result in progressive tax structure. Global economy comes to dominate national economies with resultant political global thinking becoming more commonplace.

10 y.a. – Accelerated changes in rapid electronic communication with increasingly democratic participation in media content; electoral government increasingly controlled by mass opinion; immediate up-to-the-moment coverage of governmental processes available to large segments of population at will. Decentralization of decision-making and economic control bases. Redistributive economic packages move away from charitable and towards remedial formats.

The Future – More movement away from the vertical hierarchy as the decision-making structure of choice. More decentralized multi-focal ways of doing things on an ad hoc and increasingly flexible basis. Increasing direct involvement of people in govermnent especially via electronic interconnection.