The Northwest Coast of Florida

In My Humble Opinion
21

Hey Phish Head there have been some changes to the speed and track of Hurricane Dennis since I last posted.

From the National Weather Service Office in Tallahassee which covers the Panama City area too:

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF DENNIS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER IN BRINGING
DENNIS INTO THE GULF, WHICH IS UNFORTUNATE FOR US BECAUSE THERE WILL
STILL BE WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS TROUGHING MAY PULL
THE STORM MORE NORTHWARD THAN NORTHWESTWARD, BEFORE THE RIDGING HAS A
CHANCE TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SCENARIO POSES A
GREATER DANGER TO OUR FORECAST AREA AS DENNIS MAY MAKE LANDFALL NOT
FAR TO OUR WEST (OR PERHAPS IN OUR AREA). DENNIS WILL LIKELY BE A
LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT.

Bottom line is that it’s moving faster (landfall more on Sunday night than Monday) than they first thought and it’s moving now more NW than WNW and this all could mean a more eastward landfall. As of the 11am advisory they put landfall just on the east side of Pensacola Bay (which is about 85 miles west of Panama City) and the hurricane force winds extend outward to 45 miles from the center and the trop. storm winds 140 miles from the center with as usual the worst winds being to the east and north of the center.

There will be another COMPLETE advisory at 5pm EDT and then again at 11pm EDT and 5am EDT. If they keep moving the landfall more eastward, I might rethink my trip. If they keep it exactly where it is you’ll probably be OK but it will be a wet and windy Sunday. If they move landfall more westward again, then you’ll be in the clear.

I’d say it’s a wait and watch game at this time. The NWS does their best work and guidance within 72 hours and closer of landfall.

You can check all these updates here.

22

Ok, thanks Poonther.

I’m still going. I’ll be at Toucan’s ~ 10PM on Saturday. If you’re around, stop by. 5’10’, 200lbs., early-30s, short-dirty blond hair. Many people say I look like John Schneider (The blond one from Dukes of Hazzard), but I don’t see the resemblance!

I keep having these weird thoughts of confronting this thing. When it hits, I want to sit atop a tree and yell at it, like Lt. Dan in Forrest Gump. I’m not a thrill-seeking kind of guy, really. Not sure what that says about me. :wink:

Anyway, thanks again.

23

Actually, never mind. My Dad and Step-Mother cancelled (I was meeting them down there; They drive and stay in an RV park), so I’ve cancelled as well. :frowning:

I had my bags packed and everything. Major bummer.

The good news is that I was able to rearrange some things for later this month, so I’ll be going down from 7/29-8/1. :smiley: This is great, because I didn’t think I’d be able to get back down there until late fall.

I know I sound like a broken record, but I just want to say thank you again to all who have kindly offered advice and suggestions. This place is really great, and has a fantastic group of people.

Thanks