Oh, and the Marlins are chasing Albert Pujols.
Marlins. Albert Pujols.
Note: To fully understand the horrific travesty this would be, look at their new uniforms:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111111&content_id=25960504&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
Gloria Estefan and the boys from Miami Vice would be proud.
What are they thinking with the black jerseys? First Loria makes a point of the ‘trendy,’ ‘cool’ colors of blue, green and red-orange (the colors of the sea, the citrus industry and the sunsets, says he). Then they have black jerseys as an option? Black? In Miami? In the summer? I suppose it will hide the sweat better …
An ERA which was suppressed by a low batting average on balls in play. That ERA was unsustainable. He pitched like a guy with a 4.00 ERA, not 3.00.
I don’t see what this has to do with anything.
Maybe until next year, when he’s a free agent and the team doesn’t have any control over him whatsoever.
Surplus for the Royals, not for the Giants.
Cabrera is turning 27 next year so if anyone could be expected to sustain a career year in hitting, it’s Melky.
Which was never. His value may have been a bit higher a year or two ago, but the Giants didn’t have the luxury of Ryan Vogelsong or Madison Bumgarner to make up their minds for them.
He’s only marginally superior to Barry Zito. And what if the Royals traded Cabrera to another team for a pitcher? Then nobody wants Jonathan Sanchez and you’re stuck with him, for better or for worse.
I like this deal for the Giants. If Cabrera hits anything like he hit last year they will get good offense from their CF slash reserve corner outfielder. They also saved a few million bucks in the deal based on their arbitration status and previous year’s salary.
He was terrible for the franchise. it certainly did not gain value because of anything he did.
I disagree, if you are a big budget team planning to be in the playoffs annually a top closer is a good investment as it can mean 3-6 wins and a big morale boost. I have always been thankful for the Yankees investments in Lyle, Gossage, Rags, Wettland and of course Mo. Mariano might be the true MVP of the 1996 to current run the Yanks have been on over Jeter or anyone else. If you are a medium or small budget team, I think what you said is true as you probably have bigger holes to fill.
Exactly. Philly didn’t hire him to pitch 65 innings, they hired him to close out Game 7. That’s been a significant hole in their roster in the last few seasons, one they haven’t adequately addressed except for the 1 good October that Lidge gave them.
A few points:
Who else could Philly get who’d be a better choice in October, when the games matter?
October IS when the games matter, ya know. The team that gets to spray the most champagne and hold up the biggest trophy is the one that wins the last game of the Series. Not the one that wins the most regular season games, as you may have noticed - that only makes you the answer to a trivia question. To a team interested in the champagne/trophy thing, the regular season matters solely in terms of qualifying for the *meaningful *season that follows, and being prepared to win those games when they arrive. They are hardly “crapshoots”, as is sometimes said, even if somebody’s “stuff doesn’t work” on them. Chance favors the prepared, and Philly is now much better prepared.
Philly has made itself one of the few franchises that are *not *truly financially limited, so the amount they pay players they need to fill holes in their playoff rosters is not “crazy”. They want to win it all, and can afford to get the players they need to get to win it all. The *market *may be crazy, sure, as is the market for top performers in any other segment of the entertainment industry, but for a franchise to act according to it is entirely sane.
Gonna miss you here, Pap. Badly. Already do.
I’m sorry to see Papelbon go but I will not fault the Red Sox for refusing to pay him $50 million. They have too much expensive dead weight already on the roster to take that risk.
Also, I am in disbelief that this ridiculous issue of compensation for Theo Epstein has not been resolved yet. I’m a Sox fan, but if the team thinks they are actually going to get anything of significant value for one year of an executive who didn’t want to be there and who was going to be owed $7 million to sit around and play Angry Birds, they are delusional. If it goes to Selig, he’ll probably point out how the Padres gave up Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod for a second-tier PTBNL, and that was for two remaining contract years and a lateral move. Why is Theo worth so much more than that?
Apparently Loria is opening his checkbook wide.
He’s also made offers to Reyes and Buehrle.
I think Pujols winds up back with the Cardinals, after a long winter of expense paid vacations and extremely nice lunches all around the nation.
chizzuk: Maybe because the Cubs have an interesting conflict of interest there - they have to argue that Theo really isn’t worth very much. Or because it’s a low priority issue for both teams, both of whom are in the midst of hiring new field staff and talking with free agents. All this is about is identifying some mid-level prospect who may never break out of AA ball to hand over. Both teams are letting Selig pick the name out of a hat because it’s less demand on their time.
Re Pap, if that’s Boston’s thinking, they’re mistaken. The risk in signing him is unrelated to the risk in signing somebody else. In fact, it’s probably less, since they know him better than they know guys on other teams. In recent years, they’ve undervalued their own players and overvalued others’, and that non-objectivity has led to much of their current predicament.
[QUOTE=Elvisl1ves]
Exactly. Philly didn’t hire him to pitch 65 innings, they hired him to close out Game 7. That’s been a significant hole in their roster in the last few seasons…
[/QUOTE]
No it hasn’t. Philadelphia blew only nine saves all year, the fewest in the major leagues. They won 102 games this year and lost in the playoffs because they couldn’t hit. Ryan Madson was a fine closer.
In 2010 they won 97 games and lost the NLCS because they didn’t hit. And Lidge pitched okay.
In 2009 Lidge was awful, but they still won the pennant.
Where’s the huge hole created by lacking a closer? In the last three years the Phillies have carried a lead into the ninth inning in a playoff game 14 times and won every time. Relief pitching has not been their downfall.
If paying huge bucks to expensive closers is how you get to spray the champagne in October, someone forgot to remind the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals and 2010 San Francisco Giants. Hell, when was the last time a team won the World Series using a closer they signed as a big bucks, premium free agent from another team? I guess the 2006 Cardinals, who had signed Jason Isringhausen years before, would qualify, as would the 2004 Red Sox, but it’s the exception, that’s for sure.
Izzy didn’t even close for the 2006 Cards in the playoffs… Adam Wainwright did.
Heh, I’d forgotten that. So in the last twenty years, by my count, exactly one team, the 2004 Red Sox, has won the World Series by signing a big bucks free agent closer.
And the Phillies, the one team in 2011 that arguably had the FEWEST bullpen problems of any major league team and who already had a closer who did just fine, is spending $50 million to solve a problem that isn’t a problem in a way that almost never results in winning the World Series.
Now, mind you, apparently Ryan Madson wanted $44 million over 4 years so actually the marginal cash difference between Papelbon and Madson isn’t actually that great. But isn’t this a case of doing what Elvisl1ves accuses the Red Sox of doing - undervaluing one’s own players and overvaluing other people’s players? Madson’s a really good pitcher. He’s been an excellent relief pitcher for five years now, and did great in the closer role. He pitches great in the playoffs. What’s the need for change here?
And if you don’t want Madson back, why not give the job to Antonio Bastardo? Or Mike Stutes? The team’s got lots of arms and the record is clear; teams that win it all usually do so with either home grown closers or guys they convert into closers.
The one mitigating factor in this (and it’s a very small one, compared to the rest of the deal) is that the Phillies will probably get a significant upgrade in next year’s draft. By signing Papelbon, they give their first round pick to Boston, but since they had the best record in baseball anyway, it was the “worst” first round pick possible - number 30. Boston also gets a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds, but that doesn’t cost the Phillies anything.
However, since Madson is a Type A free agent as well, that means that whoever signs him will hand over their first round pick to Philly. As long as the team that signs Madson doesn’t have a protected pick, or doesn’t sign someone higher on the Type A rankings, Philly is guaranteed to end up with a better first round pick than the one they lost for signing Papelbon. Plus they’d also get a supplemental pick as well. So effectively, by signing Papelbon and letting Madson walk, the Phillies may have actually improved their draft position for next year.
That being said, the value of moving up a few spaces in the first round and adding a supplemental rounder is nowhere near what they’ve decided to overpay for Papelbon. The “proven closer” label is one of baseball’s most persistent myths, but like pitcher BABIP and “clutch hitting” before it, it has virtually zero factual basis. In fact, there’s growing evidence that teams that only ever use their best relievers to close out games are doing themselves a disservice, since a bases-loaded seventh inning with one out is far more important to the outcome of the game than an entire ninth inning with your team up three runs.
Oddly enough, that’s the one factor that makes me, as a Boston fan, wish that the Sox had somehow managed to keep Papelbon - not because Papelbon is such an amazing closer (although he certainly is one of the best in the game today), but because his presence on the team allowed the Red Sox to use their other relief ace, Daniel Bard, in non-save high-leverage situations. Now that Paps is gone, I suspect the Sox will move Bard to the closer role - ironically reducing the impact he could have next season, since he’ll be put into fewer high-leverage situations and more easy save situations.
But again, if Philly wants to pay Papelbon $50 million for the next four years, they’re welcome to him. I’ll happily sign two or three solid relievers that will more than duplicate his performance for less than half the cost.
The point about draft picks is a good one. And of course the marginal cost isn’t Papelbon’s whole $50 million, it’s the $6 million delta between Papelbon and Madson, who had already worked out a $44 million deal.
You’re right about closer usage, but that just further demonstrates how this doesn’t help the Phillies in 2012. This is not a team with bullpen problems, as the evidence clearly shows, but now they’re replaced one relief ace with another, both of whom are about the same age and were about equally effective in 2011. Nothing about the bullpen is better now, unless one has reason to believe Madson is, somehow, a worse pitcher than he’s consistently bene since 2007. Had the Phillies gotten Papelbon but retained Madson, I would see the logic there; I dunno if Papelbon is worth $50 million, but that would unquestionably improve the bullpen, as having both Madson and Papelbon would be awesome no matter who closed.
I’m not so sure that adds up to “probably an upgrade,” though. Half the teams in the league have protected first rounders if they sign a type-A. That includes Washington, Florida and Minnesota, all realistic possibilities. And then you have to figure that in the pool of teams who are going to be considering Madson, there’s a fair chance that you’ll find the new homes for Pujols, Fielder, Ortiz and CJ Wilson. It seems to me that it’s more likely that the team that signs Madson won’t be giving up a first rounder to do so.
Plus, looking at it like this overlooks the possibility that the Phillies could have gained a first round pick and kept their own. I’m not sure I would have wanted them to do it, because I’m not sure who will be available (and because I think RickJay overstates the qualifications of the rest of the bullpen, which fell apart late in the year), but they could’ve gotten the couple of picks for Madson and replaced him with anybody but the other type-As. Then they’d have $50 million, a possible first rounder, and a sandwich pick. Mmm.
In the end, I’m sure the logic was that they wanted closer to stay a definite strength and decided they would pay for it, then they heard what Madson wanted and just said fuck it. And from that perspective they didn’t “give up” much for a significant upgrade. But they’ve got other fairly serious personnel problems that it seems like maybe $50 million could be spackled onto.
True, that’s definitely a possibility. But in that scenario, the Phillies would get Madson’s new team’s second round pick - and more importantly, they’d still get that compensation pick in the supplemental round. So even in that scenario, it’s a choice between #30 in the first round versus a sandwich pick plus a second round pick - probably a wash overall.
Looks like the Cardinals are the first team to pick a manager - former Catcher Mike Matheny.
I’m torn. On the one hand, I strongly feel that a MLB manager needs to have two experiences before getting the big job: MLB clubhouse experience and managerial experience at some level. Matheny has the first, but not the second.
On the other hand, no coach could fill TLR’s shoes off the bat, so maybe going with an untested “character” guy who meshes well with the organization and existing players and coaches is the best path forward.
I was not expecting that—which may be a good sign that the decision was based on more than just conventional wisdom. Yeah, he doesn’t have managing experience, but is that what the Cardinals really need right now?
Matt Kemp is going to stay a Dodger until 2019!
It’s not quite official yet, but everyone I follow is reporting it like it’s a done deal. The deal is reportedly for $160 million, which is a whole lot of money, but very much worth it for the organization on a lot of different levels.
Now they just need to lock down Kershaw and surprise everyone by finding the money to sign Prince Fielder* and it’s off to the races. World Series in 2012! what, a guy can dream can’t he?
*Fielder is probably a bad idea, but it’s my fantasy dammit.
That’s a lot of money for a player that was worth 0.4 WAR in 2010. The Dodgers must really think that his 2011 season (with its .380 BABIP) is a reflection of his true talent level going forward.
Is there any chance he can stay in CF for 8 years? Obviously stealing 40 bases again would help keep his value up in the $20 million range.
It certainly makes sense from a PR and fan-retention standpoint, and helps put some positive Dodgers news out there for the first time in awhile.