Please excuse me while I hoot and holler for a bit.
There’s also 2007, 2008 and 2009. Kemp’s history is not that of a replacement-level player (and BR gives him 2.4 WAR in 2010, which I believe is closer to the truth.) It’s that of a very, very good ballplayer.
And he’s only 27 next year. You do not often get a chance to sign a guy at that point.
Probably not, but he goes from an average defensive CF to a + RF defender when he does make the move. The big deal here is that everything points to (including his BABIP which is maddeningly misused for batters) 2010 being the anomaly and not the norm. He is going to be a Dodger through his entire prime and will be 35 at the end of the contract period so if he declines like most players do LA won’t necessarily be on the hook for that. Also will be the first home grown talent locked down by the Dodgers for the majority of their career since Eric Karos. Most of the players they have developed have gone off to greener pastures after arbitration (I really wish Beltre had been given a long term contract, for example), or get short contract extensions like Billingsly did. That makes this huge for the fan base.
The biggest thing here is the PR for the team, and the ability for this contract to potentially raise the value of the team making it more likely a quality owner comes in and takes over after McCourt sells.
Interestingly, Kemp’s career BABIP as a major leaguer is closer to his 2011 mark than his 2010 mark. Overall in the majors, Kemp’s BABIP is .352, and if you exclude the aberrant 2010 figure, his career BABIP is .366.
I’m no expert on BABIP, but if i remember correctly, the Baseball Prospectus guys have argued that batter BABIP is more a function of skill than pitcher BABIP, which tends to rely heavily on luck and on the quality of the fielders. If that’s true, it could be that Kemp hits in a way that is more likely to result in a hit when he puts the ball in play.
Hm, true enough. That .352 career BABIP is, I believe, tied for most in MLB with Ryan Braun (another awesome hitter). So there probably is something to the idea that good hitters have much more control over BABIP than pitchers do (an argument I’ve heard, and forgotten, at least twice now - thanks for the reminder).
It certainly seems like a deal the Dodgers had to do - locking up their best player right before he (probably) wins the MVP is a great PR boost.
Kemp’s top comp by age is Carlos Beltran. Beltran, starting in his age 27 season, produced 38.2 WAR. Of course, Kemp is not nearly the defensive player Beltran was, but that’s still a pretty good sign I guess. $160 million for maybe 40 WAR gives us… $4 million per win above replacement. I guess that’s the going FA rate now?
Of course his second comp is Andre Dawson, who didn’t hold his value nearly as well…
How often does that not work out though? Closers are now closers, it is rare they deal with what they see as a demotion well.
Houston Astros fans: Welcome to the American League!
As a St. Louis Cardinals fan I wish y’all would have taken the Brewers back instead…
Ugh. Well, I’m sure we’ll get used to this in time, just like we (kinda sorta) got used to the Brewers becoming a National League team. Although at least there, you had a National League history in Milwaukee with the Braves and all.
Interleague play every day of the season? Frankly, I say we need less interleague play. Such as, none. What’s wrong with having two *separate *leagues, with the champions meeting in the World Series? Let one league have their DH and the other league have their lower strike zone. What’s the big deal with that? Worked pretty well for about a hundred years or so, I thought.
Now excuse me, while I go yell at these kids on my lawn. Hey, what’s that cloud doing passing by? Curse you, cloud!
Grumble.
Interleague play is just about the worst thing in baseball after the DH rule. I get why they want it, it makes lots of money, but as a fan I hate it.
Yeah, god forbid all the teams in the league play each other.
Love them both. I in an American league city got to see Pete Rose and Barry Bonds play. I see the National League Teams play that would have been on a Tv channel that probably isn’t even carried in my city.
I hated pitchers batting. The teams pitched around the number 8 batter to get to the pitcher at 9. Two dead spots. Then if a pitcher got on 'he ran bases badly so he negated the skills of the leadoff hitter.
I don’t mind at all. I can coordinate my annual week-long visit to my parents in Houston with a Yankee series down there!
The AL “West” will now include 2 Texas teams. Of course, now the Rangers and Astros won’t have any “geographic rival” for inter-league games.
EXACTLY!
Let the AL and NL play each other every day. Make them exhibition games that count only toward home field advantage for the World Series. Or something.
I get that I am a fuddy duddy, but dammit the leagues actually being separate and distinct entities is one of the cooler things about baseball. I know that the reality of that has been dead for a while, but I enjoy the fiction.
Congratulations on thinking up something that’s worse than the All-Star Game deciding home field advantage. 
I have no problem with interleague play regardless of how it’s scheduled, and I think moving one team to the AL to make the scheduling fair is a good idea that’s long overdue.
Thank you! It wasn’t easy.
No surprise here, but congrats to Justin Verlander for being the unanimous choice for AL CY.
You got to see Pete Rose play an interleague game, did you?
I’m not a fan of interleague play, so I am not a fan of this.
I don’t mind the DH, watching pitchers hit really isn’t that exciting, I wouldn’t be sad if it disappeared, but I don’t mind it at all. It has been nearly 40 years now since Ron Bloomberg walked, it is probably timed to stop griping about the DH.
To me interleague is much newer and I think it is a failure. Of course I also hate the idea of another round of baseball. Just penalize the WC team by giving them only game 3 at home.
I’m no fan of interleague play, but it isn’t the worst thing in the world.
If another wild card is added, that will genuinely reduce my interest in MLB.