If you had an AMPAS ballot, which film would get your vote?
(of course, in the real balloting, a preferential voting system occurs, but we won’t deal with those complexities. Which film would you put as #1?)
Boyhood wasn’t my favorite movie on the list (that would be Selma) but I think it should win. It was visionary and risky, and I think we need to reward fimmakers who take risks and succeed. It also managed to tell a compelling story about this boy’s growing up, but in a series of seemingly unconnected events which was very well crafted.
(Caveat: I have not seen Whiplash yet).
I’ve said it before (though I don’t think here): If LOTR: Return of the King wins as a placement for the trilogy as a whole, then Boyhood should win as a reward for such a film undertaking.
I think Boyhood should win just because it’s a great movie.
(I have a feeling Birdman will take it, since the voters tend to like stories about themselves, and it’s also not a bad film.)
Against all odds, and seemingly against what the bookies think, I think that Imitation Game will win either best movie or best actor.
(Aside: For those who saw Boyhood, was the story good? If not, we should not reward people who take a grand idea and take risks but produce a mediocre movie. From the trailer, it looked kind of boring)
I guess the problem is that “Was the story good?” doesn’t really apply; it’s a fantastic movie, but without a conventional Hollywood plot. For people who prefer that sort of thing, they will definitely find it boring or pointless. But I, for one, found it incredibly entertaining, moving, and enchanting. But it’s definitely a YMMV experience.
Boyhood and Birdman are both excellent films in very different ways. Boyhood, however, feels like the kind of film people will look back on in 30 or 40 years as a classic, and representative of what it was like to grow up in the 2000s. I think it will edge out Birdman for that reason.
If you like this kind of thing, don’t forget to sign up for the Dope’s Oscar Pool and try your guesses against others!
http://www.funofficepools.com/
Name of the Pool:
Cecil’s Oscar Pick’em 2015
password: cecil
Thanks for the reminder!
I have seen none of these movies. Apparently I have this in common with two-thirds of the American public. Moviegoing just isn’t what it used to be.
I’d have been interested in seeing The Theory of Everything, but it had only a very limited release.
I received a screener and I thought it was good. Not great, but good. I might even say “pretty good”. Certainly harmless, but nothing amazing.
I saw all of them in the theater and though I’m on Team Boyhood, I’m just thrilled it was nominated. I’d be good with any of them winning except Whiplash. My preferences (not to be confused with predictions), in order:
Boyhood
Selma
The Grand Budapest Hotel
American Sniper
Birdman
I’d be very happy for any of those.
Then I’d be, Ok, that’s alright, whatever, for
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Then I’d be, are you fucking kidding me? for
Whiplash
We found Boyhood gripping. Can’t see anything boring about it at all. It deserves to win, and we hope it does.
FWIW, I took some odds from bookies and calculated stats on how many ‘major’ awards each movie is expected to win. The results are in the table below
Movie | Expected | Probability of N awards
| num awards | 0 1 2 3 4 5
----------------------------------------------------------------
Birdman | 3 | 1 9 26 36 22 6
Boyhood | 2 | 0 30 47 21 2 0
Whiplash | 1 | 1 74 25 0 0 0
Theory of Everything | 1 | 16 68 16 0 0 0
Still Alice | 1 | 1 99 0 0 0 0
The Grand Budapest Hotel | 1 | 27 56 17 1 0 0
The Imitation Game | 1 | 26 68 6 0 0 0
American Sniper | 0 | 88 11 0 0 0 0
Foxcatcher | 0 | 92 8 0 0 0 0
Ida | 0 | 92 8 0 0 0 0
Wild | 0 | 94 6 0 0 0 0
Unbroken | 0 | 94 6 0 0 0 0
Mr Turner | 0 | 96 4 0 0 0 0
Gone Girl | 0 | 97 3 0 0 0 0
Inherent Vice | 0 | 98 2 0 0 0 0
Nightcrawler | 0 | 98 2 0 0 0 0
Into The Woods | 0 | 98 2 0 0 0 0
Two Days One Night | 0 | 99 1 0 0 0 0
The Judge | 0 | 99 1 0 0 0 0
Selma | 0 | 99 1 0 0 0 0
The awards I considered ‘major’ for the above stats are Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Cinematography, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Screenplay.
Whiplash was not my favorite film of the year.
My favorite film of 2014 was A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night and my favorite of the films nominated for Best Picture (and probably my second favorite film of the year overall) is Boyhood.
But …and, of course, YMMV disclaimers apply …Whiplash was easily a better film than The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything, or American Sniper and probably better than Selma (which I did think was excellent).
I’ve only seen one of them. So I pick The Lego Movie.
Not really, I pick Grand Budapest Hotel. Even though I haven’t seen the others, I think it has a good chance of winning.
I’ve seen them all now, and I’m going with The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Parenthetically, my second choice would be The Imitation Game.
I enjoyed watching Boyhood. It’s an interesting and very creative concept, and it was fascinating watching the characters age onscreen. But there wasn’t a lot of plot there, and it’s hard for me to imagine watching the movie a second time, much less multiple viewings.
On the other hand, I’ve already watched The Grand Budapest Hotel several times on HBO, and I pick up something new every time. That’s the mark of a great movie for me.