While I think it’s kinda silly to put too much stock in the electoral map this early, I must note that SurveyUSA says Obama’s ahead by 9 in Ohio and by 7 in Virginia.
Anyone out there see Obama winning Ohio and Virginia, yet losing overall? Me either.
Like I say, it doesn’t mean much, other than that things are going reasonably well for this early in the game. But it IS early, and there’s a lot of mud to be slung in the coming months.
I put a lot more faith in Obama’s talents as a politician than in the polls. In addition to being able to give inspiring speeches and intelligent policy proposals, he’s already shown himself to be a very capable counterpuncher. Every time someone’s thrown shit at him so far, he’s done a great job of redirecting it back at its source. He can play this game.
IIRC, though, McKinnon mentioned not campaigning against Obama should he be the nominee LONG BEFORE he was the likely nominee. It was last fall IIRC. I’m not sure there was much in terms of opposition research for the general election when McCain’s primary candidacy was still in question.
This latest news story wasn’t that he just decided, only that he was following through with his commitment.
Bob Barr is now the Libertarian candidate. Will this hurt McCain or Obama more? I can see Republicans who dislike McCain going for Bob Barr, especially those hard rights who think McCain is a Democrat-Lite. And independants that seem to be swinging Obama’s way may find Barr a more easy choice.
Also, is Nadar running? I keep seeing his crazy, wild-eyed ass on TV talking smack but I’m not sure if he’s an actual candidate.
I think with the copious amount of new democratic registrations this year, that Barr will effect McCain more than he will Obama. And with this presidential election coming at a time in the fall when every hard nosed College student who went into the summer not knowing who the nominee was going to be voting again for Obama in the fall, you will see a HUGE number come out for Obama against McCain on college campuses all over the US. I think they will help sail Obama right into that eliptical office.
If the election is close, Barr’s support will be greatly reduced by Election Day. But even 2% would be a big deal if it is a close one.
If it’s not looking close as Election Day approaches, then Barr voters won’t have much reason to switch to McCain, and Barr’s supporters might tip a few states Obama’s way, making the EC map look even more lopsided than it would have otherwise been.
If Hillary were the nominee, I believe that would be true. I think a lot of Republican voters would “come home” at the end to keep her out of the White House.
But with Obama, I’m not so sure. I just don’t get the sense that Republicans are strongly motivated to keep him from being elected. (Mark McKinnon’s resignation from the McCain Campaign, as cited in the OP, is a good example of this phenomenon.) With Obama as nominee, I think a lot of Republicans will be perfectly willing to cast protest votes for Barr.
This is an odd feeling I was having as well. I was talking with family over the weekend at the quintessential Memorial Day picnic and several fammily members who are Republican were talking as you mention. They simply are not as against Obama becoming president as they might have been if Hillary were the nominee. Now a lot of that goes back well before Obama came to the table, but by in large I see a disconnect between the voracious GOP-ers and the run of the mill pubbies - which is where much of my extended family lay. Many don’t like McCain, and are sorry they don’t have a bigger pool to choose from. Also, their primary season was more of a “Hey look at me I’m running for President” and less a battle of the bulge like we saw with HRC and Obama.
I’m gonna go ahead and say that if McCain picks Jindal as a running mate, he has the Indian vote in the bag. Not that the voting bloc is super huge, but still . . .
Apparently McCain is attending a fundraiser with bush where, get this, no cameras are allowed. Apparently Obama is going to tear into McCain later for this…
The other problem with that votemaster place is that it doesn’t narrow it down to Obama and McCain. The national poll does. I realize this doesn’t make sense, but Obama has been seeing huge gains after they stop polling Hillary.
Many of us have been expecting that to happen for a while. As soon as the camera and more importantly the stories are off the air waves Obama will see a dramatic increase. It’s going to be an interesting year!
It could be more involved than that. Jindal is “a person of color” yes, but not an African-American. There is next to no history of prejudice against South Asians (can I say that instead of Indians to avoid confusion?) - in fact, their stereotype is about hard work and education, very attractive attributes in an candidate.
Picking Jindal would, too, be a defense against the frequent Obama-supporter innuendo that failure to support the black guy is evidence of racism. And, given his trogloright social positions, would help shore up McCain’s support among that faction. If only he were older than 36 and had more than 1 year as Governor, he’d be a perfect choice. But it may look too much like pandering if he does it.
I sense there’s a corollary to that as it related to Obama. Did you mean for there to be one? Can you elaborate?
I’m also curious what you think of the assertion upthread that McCain would have the Indian (South Asian) vote locked up if he picked Jindal. Would there be any meaning to Indians voting for McCain/Jindal en masse?
You did see the word “stereotype” in there, didn’t you? You know damn well what form that takes for blacks, insofar as it influences the part of the electorate we’re discussing.
That sure looked like sarcasm to me. But, if anybody has something about Indian-Americans embracing Jindal as “their guy”, it should be an interesting read.
The guy named himself after a Brady Bunch character. True, he was only a kid then, but still …
Hmm? You’d give McCain credit for pandering? Or for making a VP choice on the basis of bald political calculation? If the latter, hell, everybody does that.