We live in a democracy. If the people don’t want that, it can’t be forced on them. But that wasn’t the fundamental problem with the Great Society. The problem was that it took money out of the hands of working people and gave it to people who weren’t working. We already had a safety net for non-working workers: it was called unemployment. Welfare was intended for the idle poor, not the working poor. In fact, the early system made it extremely disadvantageous to take work.
wow.
That’s what the Democrats said as each successive election after the Great Society steadily ate away at their power.
I found this New Yorker piece by John Cassidy interesting - “Will Donald Trump’s Supporters Show Up at the Polls?”
“…Many of Trump’s supporters are disaffected folks who are only marginally attached to the political process. A good number of them won’t show up at the voting booths. […]”
“The other factor to consider is that some Republicans may be reluctant to tell pollsters that they are supporting Trump. … But when these voters get into the privacy of the voting booth, they express their true preferences.[…]”
“Are the polls overstating or understating Trump’s support?”[end quote]
I tend to agree with the first idea - the vast, okay yuuuge, turnout of ‘fans’ at his rallies aren’t really political animals, they just want to be caught up in the excitement of being a part of the Greatest Reality Show On Earth … a giant, okay yuuuge, mega-celebrity rock concert without the rock, or the mosh pit body slamming (unless there are protesters of course). And the tickets are freeee!
I don’t know… I think there are a surprising amount of disaffected and dissatisfied white supremacists out there who have been waiting for a candidate like this. I think most of Trump’s support will come out to vote.
If you make the effort to show up at a rally to support someone you are going to make the effort to vote, it makes very little sense to do one and not the other.
Well, just by observation of what happened recently in a very red state like Arizona, the Donald did set his most recent rally after the last republican debate (and Arpaio was there too) in a hangar in Mesa expecting a huge crowd. For someone that does claim to have wide popular support the rally was really short on people. Just about 3000.
http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/donald-trumps-return-to-arizona-over-the-top-7902667
Absolutely none of our parties are corporatist. That idea never took off here at all.
That’s true, but we’re talking tens of thousands there, whereas you need millions to win. For Iowa you need a couple hundred thousand I believe.
My instincts say that Trump will fail to draw actual caucusgoers. Historically, the guys with the best organizations and who do the most footwork in the state win there. Cruz is now looking like the guy. And once Trump is wounded in Iowa, he probably also loses NH. Rumors of “sabotage voting” aside, most open primary voters there seem to go for the more moderate choice, which will benefit Christie.
Maybe you have it right, maybe you don’t. However.
When discussing the Trump campaign I have so far found those who use terms or words like
“traditionally”
“in the past”
“historically”
“previous elections indicate”
or
“my instincts say”
are almost always wrong about the Trump campaign. In fact, the only result in these situations so far has been to see his standing among the other GOP candidates increase.
Yes, the white supremacists, xenophobes, etc., will break their necks to get to the polls - they’ve been waiting ever since we put a Black Man in the White House - but they’re only, what, 33% of the populace.
Watching Trump’s crowds, I notice many 20-somethings, not really listening to his speech; instead they are talking to each other, laughing, texting and taking selfies. Treating the rally as what was called a “happening” in my day.
Interesting article, thanks.
"The campaign of Mr. Cruz opened a 48-bed dormitory in Des Moines this month, nicknamed Camp Cruz, for what it says will be 500 volunteers from out of state. They will knock on doors and make calls to potential supporters, who are identified by microtargeting software. […]
"In Davenport, a blue-collar city on the Mississippi River, a paid Trump staff member and two volunteers worked their phones early this month from a restaurant booth, encouraging people to attend a Dec. 5 rally with Mr. Trump.
Fanned across the table was an inch-thick stack of pages with registered Republicans. The campaign had yet to narrow the universe of thousands of Republicans in the Davenport area to potential Trump supporters, the kind of screening some campaigns had already done. […]"
I’ll bet Cruz takes Iowa easily. Sounds as if Trump and his staff understand the complicated method of Iowa caucus voting as thoroughly as they do the nuclear triad.
Dunno about ‘easily,’ but I think he’ll win the state.
Except that on the GOP side, there’s nothing complicated about it. You show up, cast a ballot, and leave.
Now on the Democratic side, it’s genuinely complicated. But that’s the thing about caucuses: the parties run them, not the state. So each party runs its caucus independently of the other.
Rubio missed another vote on the 18th. I don’t understand this choice by him, given the recent criticism he’s received on his voting record.
If he keeps this up, I’m going to be less concerned about his chances.
New CBS/YouGov polls, all taken 12/14-17:
Iowa: Cruz 40, Trump 31, Rubio 12, Carson 6, everyone else 2 or less.
NH: Trump 32, Cruz 14, Rubio 13, Christie 11, Kasich 8, everyone else 6 or less.
SC: Trump 38, Cruz 23, Rubio 12, Carson 9, Bush 7, everyone else 4 or less.
And in Florida, two recent polls:
FL (Florida Times-Union, 12/16): Trump 30, Cruz 20, Rubio 15, Bush 13, Carson 8, everyone else 6 or less.
FL (St. Pete Polls, 12/14-15): Trump 36, Cruz 22, Rubio 17, Bush 9, Carson 6, everyone else 3 or less.
Rubio’s got his work cut out for him, because it’s starting to look like Trump v. Cruz.
Lindsey Graham is dropping out of the race. One less guy at the kiddie table.
Would his vote make a difference? I don’t think most people care if someone running for president spends less time at his day job. I’m sure he’d show up if need be.
I can see Jeb! picking up his 1.7% in South Carolina, which moves Jeb! all the way from fifth place to fifth place. This could be the break Jeb! is looking for!
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple more of the hopeless candidates drop out . Trampling around the cold in Iowa and New Hampshire can’t be as appealing as spending the holidays at home. There’s only a month left until the Iowa caucuses after the new year.