We’ll see. In 1996 and 2000, the Iowa winners (Dole and Dubya, you may remember them) went on to win the GOP nomination, while the NH winners fell by the wayside. The whole “Iowa winner isn’t going anywhere” meme is based on just a few data points, and ignores the contradictory ones.
I figure Trump’s whining may cut into his future support more than the fact that he finished second in Iowa. And it’s hard to say what effect Rubio’s strong Iowa finish will have on NH. I’m looking forward to the first post-Iowa NH polls.
538’s New Hampshire polling data now includes two polls taken either mostly or entirely since Iowa. Trump’s polling in the mid-30s, and Rubio’s polling in the mid-teens. Everyone else is roughly where they were before Iowa.
If the primary were being held today, Rubio would probably come in second, but a very distant second, just ahead of the rest of the pack. My expectation is that if Rubio gets 15%, and Kasich and Bush get 12% and 8%, for instance, that isn’t going to exactly scare them out of the race: both of them would likely stay in until mid-March when Ohio and Florida have their winner-take-all primaries, assuming their money doesn’t run out.
So Rubio needs to pick up steam pretty quickly between now and Tuesday. Finishing a fairly close second will keep the money rolling in. Finishing a distant second, not so much.
All the attention has been on everybody else, Rubio basking in the shadow. What happens to him if he ever became the focus of attention? Well, did you ever play that game with the magnifying glass, the sun, and the ant?
The last general poll showed Trump-Rubio-Cruz at 25-21-21. That’s the very definition of a three-way race, and if any candidate can’t beat Rubio in NH they should probably get out.
With the NH primary already under way, 538 gives the chances of of winning as: Trump 70%, Rubio and Kasich 10% each, Bush 6%, Cruz 4%, and Christie <1%.
Kasich’s coming on strong though. My prediction of a win is looking farfetched, but I’m counting on Trump turnout being poor and Kasich finished a strong second.
Kasich has barely got a bump which sounds about right given how toxic he has become to much of the conservative base . Christie is finished which at least clears the establishment lane a little.
It’s been a terrible few days for Rubio but I think he still has a shot. He now has to fight Jeb for the establishment candidate slot and I would back him to win. Then he will be in a three-way race with Trump and Cruz which will be a long grind in which he is still IMO the least flawed candidate for the GOP.
I think an “establishment lane” (if we want to buy into lanes now) candidate could win if support coalesces around them, but it’s unlikely. I think the more likely scenario is if 4-5 people stay into the race past mid-March then they’ll have made it hard for Trump to not be the nominee because he’ll win pluralities in a lot of places.
Winning does matter, even in elections that aren’t first past the post, because of the scheduled nature of primaries and how wins effect donor dollars and media interest.
I lean toward thinking Trump wins the nomination because enough of the guys left have legs to stay long enough that by the time the GOP is ready to consolidate around someone else, Trump will be too far along.
After Trump, I think the most likely is Cruz. Cruz most likely will be the beneficiary if Trump support wilts because a lot of those people who support Trump are insanely disaffected voters and Cruz is the least mainstream of the non-Trump candidates left, so would probably gobble up a lot of Trump’s votes. He’ll remain strong with evangelicals and that will be enough to carry him to victory.
The problem for establishment lane candidates is they have to coalesce into one, then they’re in a three way with Cruz and Trump, and they have to somehow beat both. I just don’t see it–I think in that scenario you have a brokered convention.
